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Topic: The Bounce is Official - page 2. (Read 5189 times)

legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1217
December 11, 2013, 12:28:35 AM
#30
Is the price going up?  Probably but higher volume shows higher conviction in the movement.  If it was moving up under high volume I would be more suprised with it flash tanking back to $600 or something like that.   If it moves up rapidly on low volume it really shows no conviction in the price movement.  It means a few trades and potentially a wide spread it all it takes to move the price up.  It doesn't mean a massive number of players are "betting" massive sums on their conviction that the trend is sustainable. 

Easy up = (potentially) easy down.

For the record before I get flamed I am not saying dump it all, it is going to crash, you should short it, or some magical line told me we are going to $671.38 within 48 hours.   I don't try to day trade the market.  Just pointing out that a lack of volume indicates a lack of conviction, a lack of support or base and like before if it reverses it is going to free fall.

did you happen to see my argument up there? does it make any sense to you?
donator
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1079
Gerald Davis
December 11, 2013, 12:24:43 AM
#29
Is the price going up?  Probably but higher volume shows higher conviction in the movement.  If it was moving up under high volume I would be more suprised with it flash tanking back to $600 or something like that.   If it moves up rapidly on low volume it really shows no conviction in the price movement.  It means a few trades and potentially a wide spread it all it takes to move the price up.  It doesn't mean a massive number of players are "betting" massive sums on their conviction that the trend is sustainable. 

Easy up = (potentially) easy down.

For the record before I get flamed I am not saying dump it all, it is going to crash, you should short it, or some magical line told me we are going to $671.38 within 48 hours.   I don't try to day trade the market.  Just pointing out that a lack of volume indicates a lack of conviction, a lack of support or base and like before if it reverses it is going to free fall.
copper member
Activity: 1380
Merit: 504
THINK IT, BUILD IT, PLAY IT! --- XAYA
December 11, 2013, 12:20:17 AM
#28
Take a look at the volume on the red candles compared to the reversal and uptrend.  I am not saying it won't go up further, it certain may but for me an increase in the green candle volume would improve my confidence that the leg up is sustainable. Show me a run of green candles with volume spiking to where the red candles and it will remove all my doubts.

But doesn't the red candle volume show that it takes a higher sell-off to push prices down, while less volume drives prices up? That seems to indicate a very bullish market to me. I could very well be wrong though... Please correct me if I'm reading this wrong.
donator
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1079
Gerald Davis
December 11, 2013, 12:11:49 AM
#27
Take a look at the volume on the red candles compared to the reversal and uptrend.  I am not saying it won't go up further, it certain may but for me an increase in the green candle volume would improve my confidence that the leg up is sustainable. Show me a run of green candles with volume spiking to where the red candles and it will remove all my doubts.
member
Activity: 60
Merit: 10
December 10, 2013, 04:32:28 PM
#26
Two words:  low volume.
Now that might change but until it does it doesn't show any conviction in the reversal.

This MtGox volume doesn't look low to me. It's significantly higher than it was during most of the run-up.



I guess I should add all the markets together to get a better picture.

edit: bitstamp and btce show a similar chart

I'm not making predictions about the price movement, but I don't understand how you decided the volume was low.
legendary
Activity: 1153
Merit: 1000
December 10, 2013, 01:10:07 PM
#25
People need to cash out slowly. Imagine, if just 2% of all people cash out quickly (or everyone just sells 2%). That would be 240,000 coins hitting the exchanges. Look at the order books and make your own guess...

Remember that if someone is going to dump 1000 coins on Gox now, we would approximately go down by 40 USD. The guy doing that would have pocketed around USD 880.000, but the Bitcoin marketcap would decrease by USD 480 Mio.

EDIT: (not implying that one person can move the market as such, I just want to point out how fragile the whole wealth in Bitcoin is)

No market of any size can support immediate liquidation of 2% of the entire market value.

If people tried to quickly cash out 2% of the world stock of gold, the price of gold would crash.
If people tried to quickly cash out 2% of all housing, the housing market would crash.
If people tried to quickly cash out 2% of all gov bonds, the bond market would crash.

If bitcoin is a store of value, 2% won't be quickly cashed out. The market does not have to support that.
legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1217
December 10, 2013, 12:59:15 PM
#24
Two words:  low volume.
Now that might change but until it does it doesn't show any conviction in the reversal.
I don't quite buy the low volume argument (whatever it may indicate for future price movements).
http://data.bitcoinity.org/#caaaaddgaa
Yesterday there was quite a bit of volume, in particular on btcchina. Not as much as in the last few days during the crash, but more than last month's average.

thats what i was thinking. if the price action was following a different market than there would be an objective quantified number that you are trying to reach therefor there wouldnt be any disagreement among bulls and bears in the trailing market, no debate about whether the price should be higher or lower. That would lead one to expect low volume. I think this is what we saw, mtgox was trailing btcchina and on btcchina we have very normal volume.
member
Activity: 92
Merit: 10
December 10, 2013, 02:30:37 AM
#23
Two words:  low volume.
Now that might change but until it does it doesn't show any conviction in the reversal.
I don't quite buy the low volume argument (whatever it may indicate for future price movements).
http://data.bitcoinity.org/#caaaaddgaa
Yesterday there was quite a bit of volume, in particular on btcchina. Not as much as in the last few days during the crash, but more than last month's average.
hero member
Activity: 602
Merit: 500
December 09, 2013, 11:10:26 PM
#22
Its interesting to watch and I think it is going to break $1000, and rally higher.

I am a long time bear and can not believe that the price has rose to the prices they are now. I also can not believe that it is shooting back up so fast.

Part of the reason is most people just sit away and let it climb, only a few people will cash out and benefit.

I think this is a good opportunity to buy short term and ride it up, as soon as it shows signs of weakening then sell.
full member
Activity: 143
Merit: 100
December 09, 2013, 07:00:25 PM
#21

Remember that if someone is going to dump 1000 coins on Gox now, we would approximately go down by 40 USD. The guy doing that would have pocketed around USD 880.000, but the Bitcoin marketcap would decrease by USD 480 Mio.

Thats why Bitcoin market cap is not usefull indication of anything, what matters are the buy orders placed

This is a false sense of security!
Most of the bids have no intention of buying unless the price drops first to hit said orders. Many of those will be pulled and replaced at a better price or not replaced at all. Much of the bid side of the order book is just fluff... Padding and propping the price.

On the other side, I read a lot of posts talking about the cumulative ask depth and that there are believed to be "only 12K Bitcoins for sale" in existence.This is another wrong assumption. At these prices, where no one can truly know where the top is, most sellers don't place asks. They wait for their price to get hit before just dumping on the market. After all, they wouldn't want to create unnecessary resistance 'To Da MOOOON!', would they?
legendary
Activity: 1638
Merit: 1001
₪``Campaign Manager´´₪
December 09, 2013, 06:41:39 PM
#20
I smell bull trap. I don't trust this level of optimism after such a quick rebound.

That said, I hope I'm wrong.
+1
I am not really sure, but I am guessing its a bull trap.
member
Activity: 167
Merit: 10
December 09, 2013, 06:13:54 PM
#19

Remember that if someone is going to dump 1000 coins on Gox now, we would approximately go down by 40 USD. The guy doing that would have pocketed around USD 880.000, but the Bitcoin marketcap would decrease by USD 480 Mio.

Thats why Bitcoin market cap is not usefull indication of anything, what matters are the buy orders placed
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 508
December 09, 2013, 06:07:51 PM
#18
Two words:  low volume.
Now that might change but until it does it doesn't show any conviction in the reversal.
My thoughts as well.
donator
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1079
Gerald Davis
December 09, 2013, 06:04:54 PM
#17
Two words:  low volume.
Now that might change but until it does it doesn't show any conviction in the reversal.
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 251
Giga
December 09, 2013, 06:04:42 PM
#16
Keep an eye on the Gox bid sum. Pre-crash is was consistently over $35million. Post crash low was only $24million. Now it's back to $34million. If it keeps heading towards the $40million mark I think we'll be touching the ATH by Christmas.

Good note, a few days ago i've started looking at the bid sums, i can see it as an indicator.

Interestingly Fiatleak proved pretty useful to me, yesterday the buys were insane however the price wasn't going up until few hours later it jumped from $700 to $900. It seems a whole new wave of buyers got in at the $650-$700 range
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
December 09, 2013, 06:01:38 PM
#15
Yes I don't know why but it feels like almost a return to normal. It feels good  Grin

Lol. Very good Smiley
hero member
Activity: 531
Merit: 501
December 09, 2013, 06:00:00 PM
#14
Keep an eye on the Gox bid sum. Pre-crash is was consistently over $35million. Post crash low was only $24million. Now it's back to $34million. If it keeps heading towards the $40million mark I think we'll be touching the ATH by Christmas.
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 104
December 09, 2013, 05:39:32 PM
#13
I think there needed to be something that was going to trigger a correction and I bet most people were just looking for some reason to sell, at least some of their coins, and there was the China news right on cue.  The question is whether anything else will happen soon.  What about the chances of closing the new Silk Road?
sr. member
Activity: 361
Merit: 250
December 09, 2013, 05:31:40 PM
#12
I smell bull trap. I don't trust this level of optimism after such a quick rebound.

That said, I hope I'm wrong.

The Chinese news was quite wrongly interpreted - I don't consider it too surprising that the price rebound after people realized the confusion. On the other hand the price is bloody high.

I don´t think the news caused the crash, it was just the trigger of a healthy correction. The double top was forming anyway. 1 BTC = 1 ounce of Gold was not sustainable. And you are very right, the price is still bloody high...
zby
legendary
Activity: 1594
Merit: 1001
December 09, 2013, 05:23:54 PM
#11
I smell bull trap. I don't trust this level of optimism after such a quick rebound.

That said, I hope I'm wrong.

The Chinese news was quite wrongly interpreted - I don't consider it too surprising that the price rebound after people realized the confusion. On the other hand the price is bloody high.
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