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Topic: The BTC Scaling Law - page 3. (Read 301 times)

jr. member
Activity: 46
Merit: 26
January 11, 2024, 02:31:49 AM
#5
The law is not clear to me exactly, but it seems to be a variation of Moore's law. Price to time, I believe in this case?

But that also means that the price will eventually flat-line, *some time* over the next couple decades. I mean it can't keep growing in price constantly, forever like this. Moore's law itself has already flat-lined (despite chip manufacturers not wanting to admit it).

The log of the price as a function of time (log in the y-axis and linear in the x-axis) is not going to look like a straight line but a convex curve (bending downwards). This indicates BTC is slowing down with time when looked over linear time because as the log-log graph reveals what scales up linearly with the log of price is the log of time, so scales. In other words, every time BTC scales up by a factor of 10 we need an equivalent scaling of time so 10 days, 100 days, 1000 days, and so on. This looks like a slowing down in our linear understanding of time or diminishing returns. It is ok because even if this means the 1000x returns in a few years are behind us, it shows the system is stable and robust. Power laws are typical of robust and nonfragile systems. To answer your comments there is no real ceiling also because it represents the price of BTC in dollars and the dollar is inflationary and can go easily to zero relative to BTC. Inflation is already part of the model given we had considerable inflation in the last 15 years. I expect the system to continue similarly for a few more decades but we will see.     
jr. member
Activity: 46
Merit: 26
January 11, 2024, 02:24:25 AM
#4
The law is not clear to me exactly, but it seems to be a variation of Moore's law. Price to time, I believe in this case?

But that also means that the price will eventually flat-line, *some time* over the next couple decades. I mean it can't keep growing in price constantly, forever like this. Moore's law itself has already flat-lined (despite chip manufacturers not wanting to admit it).

It is a power law, that are well-known in physics. Moore's law is an example but there are many other similar relationships in nature and man-made systems. You can listen to this talk here: https://www.ted.com/talks/geoffrey_west_the_surprising_math_of_cities_and_corporations

The law can be expressed in 2 ways 1) As a power law, that means one quantity as a power of another Price=10^-17 * (days from Genesis Block)^5.82 or 2) as a Scale Law log10(Price)=5.82 *log10(days from Genesis Block)-17. It is the same law just written in two different ways. The second way shows the relationships between scales (logs reveal the scale of the price and the scale of the time) is a simple linear relationship (the parameters mentioned here were calculated using a simple linear regression over the logs of price and logs of time). Phenomena that show power law behavior look like straight lines in a log-log graph (log on the x-axis and log on the y-axis).

Usually, assets are never graphed over a log-log graph but BTC is unique because it seems to follow this universal law. There is something deeper going on with how BTC scales up. It is not random but follows some universal law. By the way, networks show often power law characteristics. It is something that should be known more in the BTC community. I will discuss more about this topic in the following days.
jr. member
Activity: 46
Merit: 26
January 11, 2024, 02:10:39 AM
#3
The main graph that illustrates the BTC scaling law is this.
https://i.ibb.co/C6n28k8/Model-Valuation-A1.png
legendary
Activity: 1568
Merit: 6660
bitcoincleanup.com / bitmixlist.org
January 11, 2024, 02:05:18 AM
#2
The law is not clear to me exactly, but it seems to be a variation of Moore's law. Price to time, I believe in this case?

But that also means that the price will eventually flat-line, *some time* over the next couple decades. I mean it can't keep growing in price constantly, forever like this. Moore's law itself has already flat-lined (despite chip manufacturers not wanting to admit it).
jr. member
Activity: 46
Merit: 26
January 11, 2024, 01:58:02 AM
#1
I just posted an article on Medium about the BTC Scaling Law. Please let me know what you think.
Here is the link: https://medium.com/quantonomy/btc-scaling-law-model-has-been-right-for-the-last-15-years-real-price-and-model-comparison-5dee5bb495f6
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