You talk like someone that is not deeply rooted in trading, it is not respective of how many times histories look similar but the warning towards the time of deviation. Nothing works perfectly even if they have done that before and what is happening with Bitcoin recently should have hinted to you of this. This is how every asset behaves, so Bitcoin can't be an exception, it is only a matter of time before everyone knows this and faces the reality.
Fine, Bitcoin has had some beautiful patterns/cycles in the past, but it is due to the fact that the people in control then have the same mentality/ideology towards it, so they turn it into a tradition which makes it behave in certain ways in cycles. But things are changing, especially this time that Bitcoin is now being majorly controlled by institutions and not by the old whales as people called it, who understand and manipulate it the same way, and also preach the same to adopters.
How it behaves at the weekend should have also told you something, it will get to a time when it will not be business as usual, nothing happens in the past that will always be replicated in the market, it is not possible, it can only take time. The earlier we plan for it, the better for us as no asset can always be behaving in such a way that people will always be able to cheaply predict it as it was in Bitcoin. If it continues forever this way, then it is not dynamic like other markets, which I will never believe. Expect more deviation soon!
Are we entirely sure that it is changing? Why do you think that it is changing or at least what made you believe that it is? So far, we have seen it go up after halving, and then go down after that up, and then stay down for a while, then go up again after halving and that has been the system for a long time. Looking at the most recent years, yeah 2022 was down, 2023 stayed down mostly or went up just a bit, and now we are near the all time high, so far it all looks like quite similar to the past.
So, I do not see a reason why it is going to change anytime soon, we are looking at something that will take care of it very differently, and I do not think that we are going to end up with something that will change, we should accept it as it is.
As per your query, Bitcoin is good but not perfect and I have written about many reasons why Bitcoin should be careful of it over time. Just like any other asset, we have to be the friend of our trading chart for the most effectual guide and not rely on the past histories as you claimed, it will NEVER, I repeat, it will NEVER continue to replicate it. If Bitcoin replicates history all the time, then it is useless, because it is a very good reason to say that it is not dynamic. The dynamism of thing is a very good characteristic of all assets listed in the financial market, this is why they are not always predictable.
Fine, in the past, Bitcoin had some high degree of replications of its history in cycles, yet, are you not sensing that things are changing? Look at what happened in the later part of 2023 to till March 2024, had it ever been witnessed in the history of the market where it would have such a huge movement in just some months to halving? A situation that made it hit its former ATH of about $69,000 and even moved past it to settle at about $73,850, which it has not been able to reach again even after the halving.
Also, a very good consideration is that all the time that Bitcoin was buying in multiples and replicating the past histories in cycles, don't you think that the price was still low? Which is also applicable to its liquidity. By then, it has fewer adopters compared to the present statistics, most people have already known it, so who are the new adopters (in millions) to push it higher so significantly in a short time? If at all Bitcoin will rise so well, it will take time.
Besides, in the past, whales with a few million bucks might buy it and go to social media and talk of it, and by that, many followers would do as he said as well which often caused the market to move as they predicted (manipulation). But that is gone. This can only continue with a thin liquidity market and not what Bitcoin represents now. An end has come to such bullish speculation without a basis for it, and this is particularly true as the market is now being controlled by institutional money and not the so-called whales. If at all, they (institutions) are interested in buying Bitcoin, they would have bought it very low, that's the way they operate. It's risky for them to buy it high, so where is the liquidity coming from to push Bitcoin so high in a short space of time? I really don't have confidence in that.
Notwithstanding, these are my personal views, they are not automatic things that will happen.