Topic: The Bullish Case for Bitcoin, reloaded. - page 2. (Read 404 times)

So what is the alternative?

We have the bull market incited by several factors:
-Internet penetration with more people being introduced to bitcoin
-Institutional interest with ETFs coming and more billionaires dipping their feet. Recently there was a story about that billionaire from Mexico.
-People waking up to the game the FED and central banks are playing with their money
-Fear of CBDC?
-Countries going the path of El Salvador.
-Increasing cost of mining

Let's say we won't have currency usage for another 4 years, until the next post-halving cycle. Do you expect the price to stop growing because of that? If it doesn't go up it's going to have to go down, against all these positive factors, because I just don't see bitcoin as a stable commodity. It will keep going up, or it will have to come down, but IMO there so many strong points supporting the bullish case for bitcoin that it's going to keep on giving to those who appreciate it.


It's a matter of perspective. If you bought bitcoin for 60k, you'll say the price is bearish. If you bought it for 10k, it's bullish.
If you measure bitcoin only from its highest point, 99% of time it's going to be lower, so that doesn't say anything. A week from when it hit 68k, people who bought that price point were already at a loss. Was that a bear market? I'd say it wasn't.

When bitcoin went down 50% from 60k to 30k, was that a bear market?

Why would you refer to bitcoin as down because of it's ATH? Bitcoin's history is based on roughly 14 years of existence. How long was it trading for 60k? A month? So around 1/168th of its existence you were able to buy or sell it for 60k. It was very easy for an average bitcoiner to completely miss it.

This is only true if you replace all your trades on exchanges by buying/selling goods. You can do it partially, and if you want to buy or sell more, then you can combine both methods. Of course if you have complex trading strategies then you can't replace all your trades by buying and selling goods.
It isn't an "one or another" thing. It's more like that it would be better to gradually shift more to buying goods instead of selling on exchanges.
 
I don't see current (particularly mobile) wallet software as that difficult to use. However, I think you're correct that there is room for improvement particularly in the field "protect the user from him/herself". I don't know that many mobile wallets, but for example a simple function only allowing to spend a certain amount per day (as it's common in bank accounts) could help there.

Key management is something you generally have to learn in the digital world, also for fiat transactions and identity management. Irreversibility is mainly an issue if you trade with anonymous trading partners, while when buying goods at a merchant you are entering a legal contract with an established entity. At least that's what most people would do when they buy goods and services. So if they scam you then you've to take legal action, as if you had paid with cash.

There's also no convincing mathematical formula of the value of other, less volatile goods like gold. There are machine learning based models being developed but that could also be possible for Bitcoin. Trading volume of gold is however 10 times higher than Bitcoin's. So this can explain its lower volatility.

Yup. That's also what I meant with the "limbo" Bitcoin is currently in.

Again yup, this is the current most common usage pattern. The idea of this thread is to think a bit about how a transition to the next stage could become possible.

There could be technical solutions, like for example what hatshepsut93 wrote above (more "idiot-proof" wallets). I for example think also that a reloaded OpenBazaar-like marketplace software would help a lot. Also we can think about smart-contract-based solutions to hedge against volatility. There are a lot of possible options, but they're not taking off.

I actually agree here and I'm not among these ultra-maximalists who think Bitcoin will replace all fiat operations. However, I think it's also not correct to downplay Bitcoin's advantages. Needing no centralized intermediaries nor human intervention (apart from development and bugfixing) makes Bitcoin the first completely automatized payment system in the world. For quite big markets like international payments/remittances and for the unbanked there aren't much better options.

Sometimes I'm becoming as fatalist as you But even if many people don't care, it can make sense to think about the reasons for Bitcoin being "stuck" at this "speculative asset stage" and how this could improve, in particular which incentives could get people to get "on track" to a more P2P cash-friendly stance again.

If you sugarcoat stuff that much you're going end with diabetes and never touch chocolate again!
Let's not try and change things that have been established for decades just because it doesn't look good to us!

Bitcoin is up 400% since 2020?, it is, it is up 30% since 2017, yes, but at the same time it's down 62% since the ATH , yes it is, we're in a bear market of low after low and that's it.

Let's look and those two, so basically the will also never end in a bear market, right?



We also didn't have a bear market in 2009, right? Cause continuous growth!



Back to the main topic:

Quote

2) Many people forgot why Bitcoin is such a big innovation. It is the first digital value exchange medium which lacks central intermediaries completely and thus has its known advantages like censorship resistance. All previous attempts needed some kind of "bank" controlling the system.

Although I totally agree with you d5000 on the main point, so that's it on the theory, I have to correct you on this one and on the reality we see around us. It's not that they forgot. They never cared!

You say growth from usage, you say being your own bank, where is it cause it pains me to say but there is none!
Some brag about having millions for crypto users, crypto(dot)com is claiming some 40% of Turkey population owns crypto and there I look at the blockchain and see 1/3 of that in total number of addresses with over 100$ worth of coins!

As blunt as I can be, if you or anyone else thinks that the "growth" will com from real-life use then you're just as delusional as me! It's nice to dream but reality will hit us hard every single time.

I don't see it. In other words, I am bullish on Bitcoin in the long term, but not for the reasons mentioned above, and I don't see this transition between currency and store of value, in whatever order, to end up as a unit of account. Today it has a certain use as a currency but I think it will lose meaning over time.

I think it will remain a store of value like gold, but as a digital asset.


It's just like that. I've never had any problem either.


I totally agree with your view which I understand to be more pragmatic, and in my opinion realistic.

I am agree with your status that lots of people are unaware of bear and bull market because when the price reduces 5 percent then they consider that time as a bear market but they don't remember the time when bitcoin price was 12k$ or 15k$.

It will be good if investors don't think about bull and bear market because they cannot understand it. Without considering ups and downs just focus on your profit that if investors can manage investment at a specific price then they should do and wait until it increases in value.

when large institution are doing collateral deals extending upto and beyond 2028 you soon realise that things are not going to slow down any time soon

The next 2 years will say a lot more about Bitcoin and will be a litmus test for how people will continue to view the coin. For now, it's a bullish-bullish aspiration, this is my disposition as well, but I still have some reservations and will ever let my chart guide me. I believe that the true nature of the coin will be better unveiled this time that people are more aware of it and truly ready for it so that we would know its true behaviours.

The market is extremely bearish at the moment but even if there is no tradition like halving, there is no reason why a market like Bitcoin will be bearish forever, we are only in the bearish season yet. This is also a time of opportunity for those who value it and are smart enough to take advantage of it. Regardless of what's happening now, Bitcoin should be getting prepared to start another bullish phase a few months from now, and this might be relentless in giving profits to the Bulls.

We are waiting for this to happen in the last several years and it isn't happening.
You have the assumption that once BTC becomes an actual currency, everything will be fine and there won't be any problems with BTC.
The problem is that most of the Bitcoiners don't want BTC to become an actual currency. They simply want to buy BTC at 20K and sell it at 100K USD. As long as they have this kind of mentality, Bitcoin will never become a true currency and it will always stay in the category of speculative financial assets.
I will never stop repeating the same question over and over again. If Bitcoin was so awesome and so much better than the fiat payment systems, then why didn't everyone in the world just dump fiat and use BTC?
The answer seems obvious. The fiat payment systems aren't that bad and Bitcoin isn't perfect.

value is found outside the speculative market
value is NOT the market price

value sits beneath the market price

imagine value as the wholesale manufacturing cost of a product
imagine price as the retail sales cost of a product

the easiest way to find the value. is find the most efficient acquisition cost of btc on the planet.. and if smart enough you will learn that is mining in an efficient region..

this efficient mining cost sets the limit of anyone on the planets ability to sell and make a profit. because its the lowest.. no one is left to sell for less and break even. so it sets a support wall no one is willing to sell below. this support wall is the value line

you will notice because bitcoin mining is (currently) over $20k efficient. it gives good reason why the market this quarter is $25k+ instead of being just $100

you notice this support more when you look at things like crap coins with low PoW costs. their market speculates at a lower rate too

there are some PoS that have no real world mining cost. so their market is 99% speculative and <1% store of value. those PoS coins with high price can burst their bubble if their speculation reasons stop

This statement could be debatable, though, in my opinion. How can you say that it's undervalued when there's currently not enough acceptance for bitcoin? Remember that bitcoin has pumped many times, causing FOMO where some people make a lot of money while others experience the opposite. If we believed the price wasn't overvalued at that time, then I think it should not have dumped due to the so-called correction. Isn't it wiser to also consider that at some point, the price is manipulated?

The thing is, if we talk about the basics, only demand would result in an increase in the price of bitcoin. But how is the status of that now? Is the demand really growing? If the answer is yes, then the price could be undervalued currently.

Interesting analysis, and glad to see the presence of arguments !
The last sentence is a KEY phrase.
As long as Bitcoin does not acquire the status of a real asset for mutual settlements, all dreams about its future are a meaningless pastime, as only a speculative manipulative asset remains.
As soon as bitcoin enters the real market, and gets the status of currency - the speculative component will begin to come to naught. And with it volatility and other disadvantages.
The only remaining issue is technological - the speed and cost of transactions

I would say Bitcoin doesn't even need to meet the definition of money in terms of medium of exchange or unit of account to have value and to hold value.

My opinion is that Bitcoin would be valuable even solely as a store of value definition of money.

However, I do think that Bitcoin will become a medium of exchange once the price stabilises after the price discovery phase when that occurs.

If Blackrock and other ETFs are approved and we see inflow of capital into BTC ETFs, assuming 1-to-1 holding requirement for 1 BTC ETF with 1 BTC actual coin, I think BTC could get to $200k ceteris paribus.

This was the initial goal of creating Bitcoin but it has not been achieved until now, after more than a decade, those who have Bitcoin are still very limited in using it as a means of payment that can be used every day. The step that is always used is to first exchange it for fiat and shop while the merchant accepts it. Bitcoin is not one that provides products for daily needs, such as Namecheap which accepts Bitcoin, only certain groups benefit from it.

I've read news about people experiencing problems with their banking accounts, and that happens in countries with weak banking systems, there are more countries where the banking system is stronger so banks won't be able to just freeze user accounts if there's no reason which is strong for that unlike what CEX can do which can't even answer complaints other than saying to comply with the law where the CEX is registered, and as long as I use the bank I have never experienced problems like that, everything goes well. So when there is bad news about banks, it doesn't reflect the valid truth and it's only case by case and not many compared to those who continue to use banks smoothly.

Your thoughtful insight about factors those can potentially influence the future of Bitcoin's price is indeed valuable. In particular, when assessing the Bitcoin price trajectory within the historical context of halving event and its consequent impact on Bitcoin market. It is important to acknowledge the prevailing economic conditions worldwide. Factors such as, high inflation and interest rates, declining GDP across major economies, tensions among USA, Russia and China, are creating unfavorable environment for investment in risky assets. Therefor despite the historical role of halving event to act as catalyst for price surge, it is possible that substantial increase in Bitcoin price in 2024 may not materialize, what most of Bitcoin enthusiasts are expecting.

The demand and limited supply of bitcoin work together to affect the price of bitcoin. The halving event has proven to be a good catalyst in the growth of bitcoin price.  But, after the halving, or bullish run that follows it, the price also falls back to a low amount. Because the bear market scare many users away and makes them feel like they're not good investors. like Op said, without the demand, bitcoin price won't make any much positive changes. Hence, when more people stop investing or trading bitcoin, because of its price volatility the price begin to drop, causing more users to pull off their money into fiat. It's realistic that bitcoin will not fail us, if a good number of countries, facing inflation adopts bitcoin as a means of exchange or payment. And the high expectation that bitcoin price will hit fresh ATH, may get the attention of the media. If they begin to publish such trend, more people, who wish to profit money through bitcoin will throw in some money into it.

This isn't very realistic, the amount that you plan to sell must coincide with the amount you plan to spend, at the timing must coincide too. For most investors this will not be the case and they will just sell BTC for a liquid asset - fiat.


The difficulties of being your own bank - key management and irreversibility of transactions are not correlated with the levels of adoption. Maybe in the future someone will release a more idiot-proof wallet software for mass use, but for some reason no one made such wallet in all these years.

Volatility also won't be gone completely with mainstream adoption. The biggest factor of Bitcoin volatility is that there's no mathematical formula for estimating Bitcon's "objective" value, so it's all just based on pure guess of traders.

Not really scared of what bitcoin is at currently. It could be worse that's one thing I'll give ya. Last bull season it literally took us 10 months before bitcoin was even able to recover and that was even past the halving period mind you. So for bitcoin to be in this state of limbo at a very healthy price point, I don't think there's a massive cause for concern here. Sure it could be better, we could be getting 40k now considering we're almost at the end of the year and the halving is just around the corner, but bitcoin doesn't have a general timeline that it follows to a T. So I say we keep at it with the information campaigns and all that awesome stuff to clear out all the confusions and negative connotations that bitcoin received in the past, but not so much as to do it because we're worried that bitcoin is going to fall in value real soon.

Bitcoin should be seen far fetch from what it's current market price is today because it a digital currency we can trust it delivery future plan for the economy sustainability on it investors, this same assurance is what we have that bitcoin will not fail us no matter the downside of it market, it is known for that, being a volatile cryptocurrency, it fall and rises and we also trust it's process, the hope is sure that all aimed objectives on bitcoin investment  surely come to pass with time, not even now that we are getting closer to halving, which will soon mark the beginning of a new era or season for the market to pump, well this new week is not left out, anything new can come up at anytime from now in seing the market rising.

Let's say Bitcoin beats the all time high and reaches 100k and due to the volatility it goes down to 70k I think people would still consider it as a bear market season. Spreading your time worrying about which market Bitcoin is either bull or bear can be extremely frustrating.

I am interested in how I can make Bitcoin work more for me and that has to do with the adoption level, this is the best value for Bitcoin (the utility) we haven't yet started to experience that at its peak, and I hope we do

Of course, as I wrote in the long term (>2-3 years) Bitcoin already works as a store of value. However, not all people have that much time. But much more important: There is no guarantee that this long term bull market will continue. S2F and similar theories assume an "automatic growth", but I have severe doubts if demand can be sustained that high ... without the "usage as a currency".

That is highly dependant on where you live. In my country for example it's mandatory for people to show an address proof to get a bank account. For example, many students which do not live in an own appartment (most do not) often fail to meet this requirement and stay unbanked or depend on their parents opening an account for them. (Situation has however improved a bit with online wallet providers which do not require address proof, but may be unreliable). I have also heard personally from people getting their account closed, although it isn't very frequent.

And: Even if the risk to get your account closed is small, it is not non-existant and if it happens it can be an extremely big hassle for your personal finances, and in the case of Bitcoin it "is 100% solved". The censorship problem, above all if you're any kind of "dissident", is even bigger.

It's a bit of a chicken and egg problem. Bitcoin will have less tradeoffs if its use is already more established, i.e. if solutions like Lightning are reliable and widely accepted by merchants. As a solution to the problem, what I'm advocating for is that current Bitcoin users should try to use Bitcoin more to pay for goods and services if possible. For example, if one wants to take profits in a bull market or cut losses in a bear market, this can be done buying some goods instead of selling the coins at an exchange.