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Topic: The DAO FAIL - page 16. (Read 20490 times)

sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
June 14, 2016, 02:37:44 PM
#81
I have not disagreed that it is possible to create an investment pump.

But the music only continues for as long as you can delude enough new fools. Eventually you've got to actually produce real adoption and value. And I can't see anything from Ethereum, Slock.it, Etherplan or anything I've seen from that crowd that will have any real adoption.

Barry Silbert says:

Although Silbert is excited about Ethereum, he does not agree with the vision held by some of Ethereum’s most-ardent supporters. He explained:

    “I sense there’s a certain utopian view of society, which I may or may not agree with philosophically, that I just don’t see from a real-world application perspective happening anytime soon.”

Silbert went on to explain that a world where there is no regulation, lawyers, contracts, or SEC rules is not going to exist in the near future. He then clarified, “It may solve some problems. The idea of a decentralized autonomous organization, it’s super interesting.”

Silbert also noted that many of the earliest applications built on Ethereum are related to gambling, Ponzi schemes, or pyramid schemes, but he also admitted that this isn’t necessarily a problem. He added, “That’s OK because that’s an interesting way to experiment; it’s certainly what happened with Bitcoin.”

What Does the World Need from Ethereum?

One of the main criticisms of Ethereum up to this point has been the lack of useful applications that solve real-world problems. On a recent episode of Unconfirmed Transactions, host Dan Anderson and Wall Street veteran Tone Vays described how Ethereum supporters were unable to provide any use cases for the project to them at a recent meetup in New York.

During his panel appearance on day one of Consensus 2016, Silbert seemed sympathetic to the idea that practical applications of Ethereum are yet to be found. He stated: “I don’t think the world needs a decentralized Uber, which is one project. I don’t think the world needs a decentralized AirBnb, which is another project.”

Having said that, it’s important to remember that Ethereum is a platform on which a developer is essentially given the power to build any decentralized application they wish. It’s possible the best use cases of Ethereum have simply not been thought of at this point.

During his final comments on DAOs, Silbert questioned the role these decentralized organizations can play in the real world. He concluded:

     “These DAOs that are raising money from the masses with — basically it’s a blank check. It’s a pool of capital that’s going to be deployed in a way that I think will be very democratic. I’m skeptical because I don’t know the role it needs to play in society. I don’t know, in the capital formation process, what’s wrong with our current system that it’s solving for. I’m philosophically supportive. I hope it’s successful, but I don’t see the problem it’s solving yet.”
X7
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1009
Let he who is without sin cast the first stone
June 14, 2016, 01:52:16 PM
#80
Only time and action will tell what actually happens here - and a click bait title like DAO FAIL is clear on what your true intentions are before even reading through the thread.
legendary
Activity: 1540
Merit: 1011
FUD Philanthropist™
June 14, 2016, 12:13:13 PM
#79
Tptb. Looks like you were completely wrong about the price of ETH. It's $18 now,  probably rise even further soon.  Why don't you stop spending your entire time FUDing great projects like ethereum and spend more time going for walks in the countryside with your family

A great project to you is another mans cardboard box he is living in later..

FUD is warranted.
Learn what FUD stands for.. Google it.

I need not defend my shitcoin criticisms.. they are well deserved.
Your attempt at censorship to shut down people having a technical discussion is shameful.
I hope you feel embarrassed right now.

If YOU can not handle criticism then YOU should go for a walk in the countryside..
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
June 14, 2016, 11:54:29 AM
#78
...

P.S. I originally underestimated either how ignorant or insouciant CC investors are. They either really believe in nonsense, and/or they really only care about trying to form as much pump excitement as possible regardless of any realities about actual user value created. It also appears to be a difference of perspective on what constitutes value with many here I guess thinking that enabling more investment vehicles of any form is an advance of value. I haven't yet determined the mix between naivete, insouciance, and different valid perspectives. I am still trying to determine if I missed some key factor about value being created. And I am not trying to tell them to change. I am trying to understand this altcoin investing market and where it will lead....



I have consistently underestimated the idiocy of those surrounding me to the point where I have become the idiot. -Hueristic
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
June 14, 2016, 10:53:38 AM
#77
Slock.it's EC & USN

https://slock.it/ethereum_computer.html

https://download.slock.it/public/DAO/Proposal1.pdf

Well they think you need a special computer and I think I will be able to accomplish it all from your mobile phone with more clever s/w.

And which do you think will scale adoption faster: using your existing mobile or buying a new piece of h/w.

Ah the DAO is a gimmick. Enjoy.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
June 14, 2016, 10:20:27 AM
#76
Ledger

https://forum.daohub.org/t/ledger-proposal-for-the-dao-1-ethereum-hardware-wallet/1750

This looks like a reasonably (risk vs. ROI) worthy investment, except it is far too small of an investment to be worth the attention of the $168 million DAO. It will have no relevance whatsoever on the DAO's ROI.

And on top of all that, all the units might not even be sold by that time, but that is really irrelevant to my point. Why didn't they Indiegogo or Kickstarter this? Would have provided a lower unit price to the crowdfunders because no need to return a 300% gain to investors. Probably because they would not have gotten the 120,000 Euros they need.

Again I reiterate, the problem is there are not $168 million of quality investments available to the DAO. The investors in the DAO would be better served to join Seedr if their objective is to find quality investments and be in control of which investments they are vested in.

The main reason to invest in the DAO is to create Ponzi and/or investment pump. It is a greater fool investment theory gimmick. It is not about actually improving the world.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
June 14, 2016, 09:47:10 AM
#75
Nick Szabo's Etherplan

http://etherplan.com/etherplan-proposal

It is capped at $5m ROI on a $1m investment. A very high risk investment (creating a social network built around wealth planning in the midst of a global sovereign debt collapse) that will probably fail and yet the upside is limited to 500% ROI over several years.

Has Nick Szabo ever created any successful s/w company in his entire life? I don't think so.

There is no Etherplan token, so no opportunity for speculative upside.

Exactly what I am warning. The insiders will siphon off that $168 million. The DAO is their personal slush fund. This is Vitalik's $18 million escapade of "pay ourselves fat salaries with your money and accomplish technobabble" gluttony on steroids.

Why couldn't Etherplan be marketed directly to investors? Why do they first need to corral them into a DAO. Because no one would invest in Etherplan.

You've got to make it part of some grand investment delusion pump in order to siphon off that money for Etherplan.

Tptb. Looks like you were completely wrong about the price of ETH. It's $18 now,  probably rise even further soon.  Why don't you stop spending your entire time FUDing great projects like ethereum and spend more time going for walks in the countryside with your family

What are you talking about  Huh I called the temporary top at $6, I called it again at $15, I predicted in advance the bounce at $7 and the double-top at $15. My pricing calls on ETH have been extraordinary. Do we need to go quote posts to prove it to you? (please don't waste my time)

I have not disagreed that it is possible to create an investment pump.

But the music only continues for as long as you can delude enough new fools. Eventually you've got to actually produce real adoption and value. And I can't see anything from Ethereum, Slock.it, Etherplan or anything I've seen from that crowd that will have any real adoption.

More power to them and you and go for it. See how high you can pump this hot air balloon.

There is no shortage of money seeking investments. There is a shortage of high quality investments with huge upside. The DAO's problem is they won't be able to find high quality (risk vs. reward) worthy investments for the $168 million. Perhaps they will morph it into a Ponzi scheme and buy DAO units with their ETH. Who knows maybe we can see $100 ETH before it runs out of greater fool gas.

P.S. I originally underestimated either how ignorant or insouciant CC investors are. They either really believe in nonsense, and/or they really only care about trying to form as much pump excitement as possible regardless of any realities about actual user value created. It also appears to be a difference of perspective on what constitutes value with many here I guess thinking that enabling more investment vehicles of any form is an advance of value. I haven't yet determined the mix between naivete, insouciance, and different valid perspectives. I am still trying to determine if I missed some key factor about value being created. And I am not trying to tell them to change. I am trying to understand this altcoin investing market and where it will lead.

Lots of hate on this thread

I am not hating these guys. More power to them to have created so much investor interest in altcoins.

I am just sharing my analysis of the possible outcome. I am bit perturbed when people idolize this stuff so much. But I am learning to realize it is necessary. I am okay with every person having their own free will.
sr. member
Activity: 686
Merit: 270
FREEDOM RESERVE
June 14, 2016, 09:43:29 AM
#74
Tptb. Looks like you were completely wrong about the price of ETH. It's $18 now,  probably rise even further soon.  Why don't you stop spending your entire time FUDing great projects like ethereum and spend more time going for walks in the countryside with your family
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
June 14, 2016, 09:33:43 AM
#73
Disqualifying the potential of all future projects before even having seen the proposals is nonsensical.

This was not the original idea of the thread and I completely agree with your statement. The DAO currently has a big problem and I'm not saying it will not be resolved, but it kinda makes me angry on how people can gather so much money (after recent ETH price rise we are now talking about over $200Mn), yet allowed this to happen...

Yes, I guess I shouldn't have focused only on the latest comments in the thread.  Not sure if you're following the progress, but here are a few blogs that address the concerns in the OP:

https://blog.slock.it/dao-improvement-requests-the-way-forward-for-the-dao-be5f84eaec6c#.tck8md11o
https://blog.slock.it/announcing-dao-framework-1-1-35249e2e001#.zb6ci161l
https://blog.slock.it/upgrading-the-dao-to-framework-1-1-a-step-by-step-guide-547a58e00137#.bcpcmedcy

The insoluble problem is not the technology. Rather it is that pooling funds means people are going to get pissed off and not agree with all the investments. Binding investors together across multiple investments is lacking degrees-of-freedom.

Besides when you have a honeypot of pooled funds that can't be effectively managed with democracy (because democracy is always about a plurality of disagreements), then it is a power vacuum that is captured by whom ever is the most clever at game theory of politics.

Politics and investment do not work together.

Each investor should be free to invest in what he or she wants to.

It is an investment pump delusion. There is no way for politics+investment to function and compete.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
June 14, 2016, 09:01:52 AM
#72
Considering this is Cryptoland...  DO NOT underestimate the fact that once a project chooses to get funded through The DAO only DAO Token Holders (DTHs) get to invest (as opposed to the crowdfund being completely open to the masses).  Disqualifying the potential of all future projects before even having seen the proposals is nonsensical.

It is not nonsensical to realize that serious projects are not going to touch a dysfunctional and potentially illegal structure. You want a clear relationship with the investors (and if it is a crypto currency then you want them to be the decentralized owners of the open source forkable project so you are not marketing an illegal investment security) and a clear legality if your project is serious.

If a project is any good on its merits, what is the advantage to giving an exclusive to the DAO versus offering a public crowdsale?  Seedr is available to do it legally.

Why would I want my project's investors' ROI to be diluted by other crappy projects in the dysfunctional DAO system? I want them to reap the full rewards of investing in my project, not be caught up in some Rube Goldberg experiment.

What is the advantage to pooling the funds versus each investor allocating his/her funds to investments? The only advantage is to gain leverage through an investment pump of the DAO itself.

I suppose it is promotional value. You get promoted to 18,000+ investors in the DAO.

The game theory is to offer some good bullshit projects to take the money (because the really serious projects are not going to offer themselves to the DAO). Pump it up and try to get some more greater fools to come in. The DAO can reap some gains. So repeat. Eventually after so many failed projects and insufficient supply of new greater fools, it implodes due to the reality that they are not producing anything of value other than an investment pump.

No one who is producing real technology with good fundamentals, is going to touch the DAO. No way I would offer my work as a project to be funded by the DAO because it is probably an illegal structure. You will just get a lot more shitcoins and stuff of that nature. I don't know how long they can keep the delusion alive and harvesting new greater fools. Eventually it will implode.

There is significant legal risk to being involved as an investor in or project funded by The DAO, unlike other speculations where most of the legal risk falls on the issuers:

http://www.coindesk.com/the-law-of-the-dao/

https://www.google.com/search?q=is+the+DAO+legal

Also there are other problems:

Quote from: Dan Larimer
Agreeing to fund projects may actually cause a drop in the value of ETH and DaoTokens because a project will require The DAO to transfer ETH to a contractor, who would then likely convert it to fiat currency, which may depress the value of the ETH on open trade markets, which would then reduce the value of The DAO’s ETH holdings. As Larimer suggests "Every time a project is funded, the amount of ETH backing the DAO tokens falls and is replaced with speculative IOU from a contractor." Thus, The DAO funding a project may actually cause a reduction in the value of ETH and reduce the value of its own investment base.
hero member
Activity: 490
Merit: 500
June 14, 2016, 08:14:23 AM
#71
Dao is no failure, just money is transferred to other markets, when the right time will rise of success I think
I often pay attention to the dynamics of the DAO, the hope can have what new project
legendary
Activity: 1960
Merit: 1176
@FAILCommunity
June 14, 2016, 07:35:59 AM
#70
Disqualifying the potential of all future projects before even having seen the proposals is nonsensical.

This was not the original idea of the thread and I completely agree with your statement. The DAO currently has a big problem and I'm not saying it will not be resolved, but it kinda makes me angry on how people can gather so much money (after recent ETH price rise we are now talking about over $200Mn), yet allowed this to happen...
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
June 14, 2016, 06:39:08 AM
#69
Imagine Vitalik's father ($60 million networth) probably invested a small amount in ETH's IPO. Let's say $100,000, because that is small for him. So now with ~100X gain ($18 million mcap to $1.x billion now), he would have the problem of how to sell $10 million of ETH. And hypothetically he is not the only one. Let's guess $6 million of the $18 million IPO was insider money, so that is on the order of $600 million needing willing buyers.

Understand why the n00bs are being led to the slaughterhouse (probably by-design) with The DAO.

TPTB rape us, then they can use this example as an excuse for the SEC and G20 to start regulating altcoins as investment securities.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
June 14, 2016, 04:49:31 AM
#68
Some new research just published is showing that the DAO is a naturally declining value investment, i.e. the trend can never be upwards on the price (unless they can make profitable investments that return more ETH than was invested, which is very unlikely because decentralized voting is the antithesis of organization and productivity):

http://hackingdistributed.com/2016/06/13/the-dao-can-turn-into-a-naturally-arising-ponzi/

The DAO is an epic fail underway. Anyone who hasn't sold already (or perhaps immediately) is likely going to lose their money.

There is absolutely no reason to not convert your DAO back to ETH, so you will be ready to sell. All upside on your DAO is due to the rise in ETH as others rush in to buy the DAO. Your other alternative is to sell your DAO for ETH so you don't have to wait 48 days before you can sell the ETH, but this costs you 6% as of last time I checked. That is unless you really believe the BS about the DAO making investments that return more ETH than the DAO invests. The above linked research is pointing out the DAO may convert itself into a Ponzi scheme and use its ETH to buy DAO at a discount expecting ETH to rise in price thus returning more ETH than was invested. In that case, holding DAO has upside leverage over holding ETH, but this is a Ponzi scheme that will eventually burst and those still in DAO will be trapped as ETH collapses in price.

Charles Ponzi and Bernie Madoff would be very proud.

...the DAO code into notepad. I find a little over 1000 lines of code, much of it comments.  I guess is this is good, since it helps a total layman such as myself get an inkling what is going on. However, even if this code was original, which I doubt; how long would it take someone proficient in coding javascript to come up with this? I highly doubt it took 150 million USD worth of effort.

Of course that DAO code is not even $25,000 of work.

The $150 million was not given to Tual (the DAO coder), but apparently it is going to be possible to top-down game the system to extract some significant portion of that $168 million.

And I believe it was you who eloquently pointed out that the likely motivation for creating the DAO was to provide the insiders more liquidity and time to dump ETH by keeping all those who speculated on ETH locked into ETH longer, as well driving more new speculative capital into ETH.

It is clever and the speculators are willing victims.

What scares me more is someone such as myself, with absolutely no programming skills, can just copy and paste this DAO code, make a few modifications, and then unleash it on the community. Maybe it wouldn't raise millions, but getting $25.00 out of it would far surpass the true value of the work involved.

The only attribute that protects a block chain instance from copycats is the level of permanent user adoption. Bitcoin has this. I don't know to what extent Ethereum has this? I think perhaps none, which is why they had to create the DAO to prevent a mad rush out of ETH and back into Bitcoin. Meanwhile the insiders are probably dumping their IPO tokens.

It is quite normal for a child to stagger and fall, or to try to go with both feet simultaneously, when made its first steps. Ultimately, all starts  to walk. The alternative to DAO is known: Federal Reserve, the IMF, the World Bank, the group of Bilderberg. The choice is ours.
 Smiley

But the DAO is worse than Fed. There are some great paradigm shifts we can do with decentralized block chains, but 1) no block chains are scaling decentralized, 2) a decentralized organization is implausible (see my prior posts for the reasons). Decentralized version control open source works because each individual can act independently, i.e. each has their own repository/fork, thus disorganization is an essential attribute of the decentralization.

Admit you missed the ETH train and move on.

So you admit it is time to move on from ETH? You didn't tell him to invest more in ETH at $15.

Btw, you may remember that I called the top at $15, and before it happened I said it would bounce off $7 and make a double-top at $15. I also called the major tops in ETH on the way up towards $15. All the posts are still there for evidence. Not that this is worthy anything. Just saying.

The management of the DAO is still centralized...

Yup. And a huge $168 million money pool for them to expropriate via manipulation over time and/or just a way for them to sell more ETH at high prices with less competition for the available buying liquidity.

V. Butterin dumped on you all.. Satoshi did not.

You're not comparing like with like you clown. Butterin is human and has bills to pay. The fact that he sold a tiny portion of his ETH hodlings to pay down his salary so he could pay these bills

$million is tiny  Huh

$million bills and salary for a 20 year old. Not to mention all the tokens his wealthy ($60 million net worth) father and friends probably obtained which are not being documented.

If Vitalik had actually accomplished any thing of long-term technical value with Ethereum, I'd say a $million for the developers would be reasonable. Vitalik got $100,000 cash grant from the bankster/globalist Peter Thiel (Paypal, Bitpay, etc), I presume he took a salary from the $18 million expended since IPO, and also the $18 million expended for all the other developers since IPO.

Many dozens of untold $millions squandered. And what result? The DAO fail and collapse is going to be epic. My popcorn is ready.

Hey but I guess I can appreciate that Ethereum has lead the way towards $multi-million paydays for altcoin launches. That kind of incentive helps to keep a top developer interested in coding for the ecosystem. I am here for idealistic reasons as well, but I doubt I'd be here if the upside for me was only $100,000. Sorry Spoetnik, just being frank.
X7
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1009
Let he who is without sin cast the first stone
June 12, 2016, 08:39:07 PM
#67
Lots of hate on this thread
legendary
Activity: 2184
Merit: 1024
Vave.com - Crypto Casino
June 12, 2016, 08:23:53 PM
#66
V. Butterin dumped on you all.. Satoshi did not.

How is that for a "lie" minecache ? Wink
You're not comparing like with like you clown. Butterin is human and has bills to pay. The fact that he sold a tiny portion of his ETH hodlings to pay down his salary so he could pay these bills and focus 110% on continuing the great development of Ethereum is, in my eyes, money well earnt and spent. Whereas Nakamoto we have no idea who, what, or which group they are.

Besides I have both my clown shoes firmly in ETH and BTC so you waste your own CPU clicks spout your disgusting FUD against my good name or Ethereums.
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1000
June 12, 2016, 08:01:11 PM
#65

Admit you missed the ETH train and move on.


Missed the ETH train? It's more like I got run over by it. Cheesy

Hopefully you don't get run by DAO train too
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1828
June 12, 2016, 07:29:57 PM
#64

Admit you missed the ETH train and move on.


Missed the ETH train? It's more like I got run over by it. Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1000
June 12, 2016, 07:22:48 PM
#63
The management of the DAO is still centralized, I sold most of my coins.
legendary
Activity: 1540
Merit: 1011
FUD Philanthropist™
June 12, 2016, 07:19:25 PM
#62
V. Butterin dumped on you all.. Satoshi did not.

How is that for a "lie" minecache ? Wink
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