Topic: The end of the sideways market is only a few months a head. TA - page 2. (Read 697 times)

sup people !

 so up to this point, the 2014-2015 seems to be playing out quite accurately, or maybe because we have no better reference, this seems to be the only proper way to make these long-term analysis.





looking at the weekly chart, 2015 aside, we can clearly see that the 40-42 zone on the RSI has been the most circuital area for the lower side of the market.

by looking at the 2015 bottom, we have the following.

a major drop to around 28 level on the weekly RSI,  3 breakout failures, a break out , a retest and a bull run.

so what do we have in common so far ?

a major drop to around 28 on , 1st attempt to break above is about to happen - this leads to a short term market analysis ;

For this mini rally we having, many traders are calling for a test for the 6k area, but why do i doubt that? along side with many other inductions, breaking the 42 RSI on the weekly is something MAJOR , i don't see it happening this time, we are already at 39.5 , i don't see much room for price to move up , a few hundreds is probably it ,if ever.

Back to the long term view, now assuming the theory remain valid and we drop from the 40-42 level, we should head back to 3.3 to 3.4k where the 50SMA on the monthly and the 200SMA on the weekly sit, we then need to test the 40-42 level again maybe 2 times, once we break it, we going to test it again, fail to break below and the bull run begins.

this puts us some where around July, tho timing is not important, it's all about breaking that 42 level and then retesting it , that will probably be the best time to go long if you want to watch your portfolio grow every week, but as far as we are below the 42 RSI on the weekly, chances are we going sideways or dipping even more.


This is not financial advice, buy/ sell as you see fit at your own responsibility.

 

Update:

to a very good extent we are still following 2014-2015, despite that the breakout accrued a little earlier than "planned".

this week large candle was intercepted in this thread >         

where i used simple SMA comparison from chart history.

now looking at the RSI on the weekly we did break the 42 level to the upside, we suppose to re-test it in about 1.5 months time, and from there the bull run should start.

What makes you so confident that a bull run is due this year? More hopium is definitely not what these people need.

I honestly think that it's more likely that 2019 will be quite boring overall, and if we do happen to see an increase of some sort, it won't be anything like a bull run. On top of that, due to clowns such as Tom Lee people have given up on perma bull type of predictions, and that's actually a good thing. It's super deceiving to promise people golden mountains while the market is a pile of rubbish in the short to mid term.

I am just so happy that I am not the only one who has faith in the market this year and believe that we are definitely going to see a bull run in the price of bitcoin and order relevant cryptocurrency in the next few months to come in 2019.

There are a lot of persons who have already given up on crypto because of the lost they faced in 2017/2018 but I have been advising them this year to forget about that lost and focus on the profit they could actually make when we begin to see a bull run in price this year.

Back to the long term view, now assuming the theory remain valid and we drop from the 40-42 level, we should head back to 3.3 to 3.4k where the 50SMA on the monthly and the 200SMA on the weekly sit, we then need to test the 40-42 level again maybe 2 times, once we break it, we going to test it again, fail to break below and the bull run begins.

this puts us some where around July, tho timing is not important, it's all about breaking that 42 level and then retesting it , that will probably be the best time to go long if you want to watch your portfolio grow every week, but as far as we are below the 42 RSI on the weekly, chances are we going sideways or dipping even more.

Yeah me too. 2018 made me skeptical about following historical trends since that can prove to be a trap.

there was no reason for the bear market to continue like this from the ATH. there was no reason for it to last this long or fall this much but it did following mostly the same trends as 2013 and 2014. and so far in 2019 we are following the 2015 patterns of stability and if we see a rise similar to that year then from now on I would expect the same nonsense to be repeated every 3 or 4 years!

I used to believe in that up until last year. now what I believe in is basically the same thing but with an addendum! .... unless everyone in the market starts following the same trend!

there was no reason for the bear market to continue like this from the ATH. there was no reason for it to last this long or fall this much but it did following mostly the same trends as 2013 and 2014. and so far in 2019 we are following the 2015 patterns of stability and if we see a rise similar to that year then from now on I would expect the same nonsense to be repeated every 3 or 4 years!

Even though there are valid concerns that past performances does not always equal what the future holds,

so up to this point, the 2014-2015 seems to be playing out quite accurately, or maybe because we have no better reference, this seems to be the only proper way to make these long-term analysis.

I definitely see what you're pointing to, but with only one past data point, it's tough to get married to anything. I think every bubble/bear market cycle will play out differently.

What I think many analysts aren't accounting for is the time aspect. This market moves so much slower than it used to, slower every day. So I'm hesitant to be glued to indicators regarding long term analysis.

$6K is bit much to ask but I'm bullish for another leg up over the next month or so.