Topic: The End of "USD" as the World's Reserve Currency - page 4. (Read 1322 times)

Maybe I will surprise you, but if the United States slides into a recession, then the rest of the world will be there. Since the dollar is the main world currency, and in the event of any fluctuations with it, these problems quickly move to the rest of the world.

This ain't gonna happen except the US stops being the world's most powerful nation.

Yep, it's literally the opposite of what most gold bugs and BTC investors think:



Illuminating thread on this subject: https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1254110879479746562

Basically, it's due to the global debt bubble, which is mostly denominated in USD. As deflation hits, cash flows decline, leading to a game of musical chairs as debtors need to exit their local currencies to service their USD debts. This could have a crippling effect on emerging economies if global recession becomes global depression.

Unfortunately for Americans who are out of work and can't make the rent, this doesn't equate to a blank check on fiscal debt. There are fears of Japanification. Republicans are stonewalling spending on the fiscal side, the only thing that can bring real economic relief to regular people absent a miraculous V-shaped recovery. That only leaves Fed meddling: cheap credit for banks (as banks tighten credit for consumers) and pumping bailout money into zombie companies.

The situation is fucked for everyone. All we can do is hope the economic downturn isn't as bad as feared.

It's funny but it's true. If US print money, other currencies lose value. That's by design in the current financial system. And that's why we are in crypto to bring the new age financial and monetary system for the future.

That's certainly true, mate. While there is no other country as strong as the United States, there's a possibility it could "fail" in the long run. After all, empires have come and gone over time. The Roman Empire was strong in its time, but it experienced its demise thereafter. This tells us that nothing lasts forever. The process of the US losing world dominance might be a slow and steady one. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to harm the economy, the FED will continue to print money to no avail. Inflation will rise like never before, weakening the value of the US Dollar. The effects will be worse the more the pandemic lasts in America.

Remember, the United States has far more people with COVID-19 than other countries worldwide. The difference is by a large margin. I believe that other countries with lower cases of COVID-19 will be able to manage their economy better, being at a better stance than the US. As China is getting closer to launch its own "digital Yuan", it might become the next reserve currency of the world. It'll be survival of the fittest as the US and other countries fight their way towards supremacy. The country with the leading edge in military, and most of all, technology, will be the one that will dominate the world's economy.

Maybe I'm wrong, and the US sees the light at the end of the tunnel once COVID-19 fades into oblivion. For now, we'll be living in uncertainty until a vaccine or cure against COVID-19 is released. If the world's economy continues to collapse even after COVID-19, then Bitcoin and other decentralized cryptocurrencies will be the safe-haven assets of choice from people in the mainstream world. Just my opinion

Despite the US being the country with the most cases of Coronavirus, it still doesn't mean that the US dollar is going to fail. A lot of people still believe in the USD and will choose it as their reserve currency over any other currency in the world. I still hold some dollars despite the situation, and to be sincere that's one of the best decisions I made at this time, because the value of my country's currency depreciated during this pandemic. So, imagine that I never chose the dollar as a reserve currency? I would have been losing a lot. So, the USD is still good and it's not going to fall.

I believe it would take more time before USD to be losing the status of world reserve currency. Only rise of some other currency will trigger and NOT just USA's collapse. The current slow down is global and not specific to USA which means USA will remain as top rated in terms of economic strength and may get recovered like any other country. I mean it is too early to think about end of USD's reserve status.

As long as major assets like RE, food, water etc don't get affected by the inflation, I'd say USD hodlers doing just fine. The RE prices are in a bad shape though but the good news is it corrects itself from time to time.

I believe most USD holders hodl at least some gold too and it spiked up recently and probably made up for their losses in FIAT.

The good thing with USD is you know how much it's value will be tomorrow. It will be slightly less than the yesterday's but you don't care anyway. Other assets might be worth more or less, you just don't know it.

Gold is close to its ATH now but the correction happened years ago was painful af to those who bought from $1800. I know friends personally that cursed gold forever and we are talking about gold here, not even crypto. Think about how they would feel about bitcoin's corrections.

Its kinda fun reading arguments whether USD will decline because of the Pandemic. But one thing I've noticed is that not just US' economy has been declining because of the pandemic but all the other countries hasn't been getting any income because of the pandemic. I might sound like a noob right now but isn't US really rich? Like they have a huge reserved money and for me, they still might have the upper hand once the vaccine becomes ready.

It is quite sad, but you are mainly right.
Except one moment - now USA made the decision to print a lot of money in order to give out to their citizens.
What does it mean for usd holders out there - they've lost some value of their assets on hands which really sucks.
This made a lot of investors will to exchange their usd to prevent further losses (which is absolutely adequate).
So by that I mean - crypto could really become one of the main hodl instruments in nearest time

USA is just way powerful when it comes to economy and that allows them to be strong when negotiating with other nations but do not forget that they are also militarily very strong as well. Not that we need military anymore as much as we did hundreds of years ago, but there are still ways they could help you, for example by giving you weapons and planes and bombs etc etc which would help any nation to be basically have enough ammo for a war, or at least not lack ammo, except against USA.

So, USA would always be the biggest nation and USD will always be the reserve currency. Even when you think about tether, you are thinking about dollars, its not a stable coin that is stable to anything crypto, it is a stable currency that is pegged to dollars.

It doesn't have them right now, but the first rules were set up by people, the next batch of rules can also be set by people you liking it or not.
If you didn't like segwit you were free to switch to shitcash, but is this real freedom with nobody imposing rules?
What if tomorrow the whole team behind the actual bitcoin with all the miners decide that the reward will be tripled and the supply raised to 210 million? What will you be able to do against? The harsh reality is that nothing!!!

Why is bitcoincash priced at 250 and bsv in 200$? Because of the code behind it? Nope! Because of the people behind it? Nope again!


So...it has value because people trust it no matter who prints it?
That contradicts a bit the first part of your post, how can you dislike and distrust the FED but still have trust in their tool? 

The explanation is pretty simple, people don't care who is behind any of those! Dollars, euros, gold, coins! People care that somebody will accept this thing in exchange for a different thing of value and when this trust is gone so is the value, that's why bitcoin price decreased that's why it jumped back again, nothing fundamental changed about it, right? The single fact that changed between 2016 and 2020 is the perception of the masses and that will give value to anything, from potatoes to beanie babies!
 

You mean the US defeated after a 4 years war happening at its borders, a pandemic ravaging the country, lost territories to its neighbors, war reparation to Mexico equaling 10% of its GDP and occupation of Michigan and New York by Canada?
Nope, trust me, this won't happen! 

Very good question. First, I'd like to make it clear that I didn't mention bitcoin in my original message. But I don't think you can compare a fiat reserve currency to a cryptocurrency. They operate in different ways. For example, the US dollar is controlled by the Fed. A central bank is an economic institution that serves political purposes. Human beings are behind the decisions that affect the value, liquidity, etc. of the US dollar. Bitcoin doesn't have those problems. It does have rules in place, like the recent halving, but there are no surprise rate hikes or cuts, no sudden unlimited QE that has to happen in order to prop up markets. When foreign nations decide to use something as a reserve currency, they need more than just someone's word that it will hold value, because they know the human beings who are controlling it probably aren't completely honest, and they don't really know these people are competent either. Human decisions are not predictable, and a currency, especially a global one, needs to have predictability. Central banks have essentially turned currencies into commodities. If you remove the question of human decision making so that the whole world could know ahead of time how the US dollar would behave moving into the future, nobody would care very much if it is backed by anything.

Your question brings up some other valid questions of course. What backs gold? What backs all those stablecoins that claim to be backed by the US dollar? If the dollar isn't technically backed by anything, how could it back a stablecoin? Perhaps the dollar is partially backed by the demand created by those stablecoins. Will bitcoin ever be a reserve currency? If the US goes through what the Weimar Republic went through, what would the world trade in? If you think "it can't happen here", remember that it couldn't happen there either, until it did.

I think those are the big questions as this topic relates to bitcoin. A reserve currency needs global trust, but more importantly the world needs to trust what is behind a reserve currency. It isn't the dollar that people don't trust; it is the Fed. Bitcoin isn't inherently more trustworthy. The reason it seems more trustworthy is because it doesn't have a central bank.

And India should welcome this move with open arms!
Let's compare Chinese influence vs American influence in Asia, North Korea vs South Korea?
Don't you think India needs a change like this one?



What would India gain from bowing to China and make an enemy of the US? Nothing!


Yeah right, 133 billion in food exports are probably nothing essential. Nor are the 60 billion in pharmaceutical products.
Do you actually believe that nonsense?
That those 2.5 trillion in global exports are making up all the stuff people buy in economies worth 30 trillion?

This is a good article to get over the "everything id made in China"


Here is one question for you, what is that real thing which is backing up BTC?  


Now? Impossible! And is not the technology is stopping us but knowledge in some and in a lot of cases actual need.
For people that aren't making international transfers and are not looking for 'investments" cryptos in general not only bitcoin is actually useless, not to mention the troubles some have in actually buying and handling them. So, if you're happy with your bank, you don't care about confiscation of funds, inflation, etc etc, you won't be tempted to use it.

But I think that scaling is achievable, not now, not in 2 years but with progress in technology and with a new generation coming up that has grown with computers from an early age some huge numbers might be achievable. Of course not 7 billion, that will never happen,  but numbers in hundreds of millions might be possible.

LE:
As you've replied before I was able to fully edit my post!

Get that thing out of my face!!!!!  

The dollar will remain the world's reserve currency, despite the coronavirus. Because to replace the dollar, you need something similar in value. What can you suggest? Maybe yuan? Which can depreciate if the central bank of China wants it at the click of a finger?

If we're talking in the context of contemporary monetary policy, the CNY has no chance. With their export-based growth model and history of consistently devaluing the Yuan, it's just not attractive to hold. It's one of the reasons Chinese wealth is characterized by constant capital flight outside the country.

We also can't discount the growing distrust in the Chinese government being seen around the world today.

The USA was very clever when they influenced other capitalist countries to accept the US Dollar as a global reserve currency. Yes, the US has managed to keep the US Dollar as stable as possible, but the cracks are slowly being exposed now. You can only manipulate a Fiat currency for a while, until it starts catching up with you. ( The latest economic stimulus programs has shown how vulnerable the US economy is and how desperate the US Reserve Bank is to hide the cracks )

Will Crypto currencies replace the US Dollar..... nah, I highly doubt that, because they (US Government) would rather develop their own GovCoin to replace the US Dollar. It is more about control than the national pride of being a global reserve currency. 

So you believe 7 billion people will be using btc in the future as their main currency? Do you think even 1 billion is achievable?

I don't believe any crypto can scale that high without losing its decentralized nature.

Power itself is centralized.

If power shifts from America, then the other country who grabs the seat from the US will be issuing its local currency as the next reserve currency. They won't suddenly start believing in decentralization and decide to share their power with everybody else.

It doesn't work like that.

If China somehow manages to overtake USA (tbh I don't see it happening), the next major reserve currency will be the CNY*. Whether it would be gold backed or not, I don't know. Probably not.

Bitcoin is a direct threat to the governments as long as it is not manipulated or hijacked. No government can afford bitcoin to become too big.

*Again, CNY gold backed or CNY as crypto running on a blockchain, it doesn't matter. It will be still CNY and the Chinese Government will have the rights to do whatever they want with it. (Using CNY as an example, replace it with USD if you like)

Weak points against America may not be visible to all of us but power shift from America to a new country or to a new entity may happen in at any time unexpectedly. America is enjoying being a super power without any major production or they are producing only top cream level of things and not the life's essentials. Still, they are able to hold the super power status. I guess when any country which will rise due to actual economy growth then America may not able to hold its power.

There are lots of possibilities dollar to be replaced by bitcoin at least for the part of medium of exchange. I guess the powers of America may be shared by more than one entity in coming years. It will be like USA may not remain as a super power but there are other group of countries will be having that status.

Yes, the more we learn about the US, the more we realize that America is too powerful to be challenged or even defeated. The United States military and it's super wow budget proves that American concentration is maintaining its prestige in the field of defense and security. Not to mention the haves who support America for their interests.

The United States is an architect in the global political system which is evidence that American influence is global. Starting at the UN and the UN security council, the World Bank, the IMF, and NATO. And always has a veto in the organization. Not to mention Currency domination which makes all acts of dedolarization only limited to dreams.

Until now, I have not found a weak point in America, the effect of which is only deadly for the United States but cannot be exported to other countries. America has begun to build India to become an American proxy against China in Asia. America indeed plays god-level politics or indeed officials in other countries do not understand geo economy, geopolitics, and geostrategy.