Even if we are near bottom or in the despair stage. There's gonna be a period of accumulation and slow growth for all of 2019.
Can you miners survive these low to negative profitablity for another year at least? Most won't. I see miners are still too optimistic and haven't felt enough pain yet. Profitablity therefore will drop more and drag out for multiple years. I bet miners will not last that long and give up in 6 more months. Their dreams of Moon and lambos will be shatteter and recovery taking longer than they want like multiple years. Eth hash rate finally decreasing some but not enough yet to justify mining
Can you miners survive these low to negative profitablity for another year at least? Most won't. I see miners are still too optimistic and haven't felt enough pain yet. Profitablity therefore will drop more and drag out for multiple years. I bet miners will not last that long and give up in 6 more months. Their dreams of Moon and lambos will be shatteter and recovery taking longer than they want like multiple years. Eth hash rate finally decreasing some but not enough yet to justify mining
This 100%.
Miners still need to feel the pain, too many are mining "at a loss", or at best breakeven, as they think the recovery is right around the corner and in 6 months we will be back at ATH. No, we will need the next year to find the true bottom and for the big boys to accumulate, and probably another year after that for prices to recover and start slowly climbing. This is basically the 2013-2016 playbook all over again.
I think the biggest problem most miners, and almost all traders, on here have is they are relatively small potatoes in the scheme of things. The big investors have plenty of capital and patience and they don't need the market to recover anytime soon to make their money. In fact they count on it to shake loose all those cheap coins from all the believers. Most of the believers or hodlers will need a good 2 years to shake loose the coins for them to lose faith and begin selling. Some of course will never sell, but the big boys know a lot of people will once their faith and beliefs in crypto's future have been shattered.
Anyway, as I said before to all those hanging on to mining equipment in the hope the recovery is just around the corner, you are better off unplugging your gear and selling off what you can than to wait it out. When mining does become profitable again, there will also be new equipment and GPUs that are a lot more efficient than your old gear, so even if you did keep it you would be at a disadvantage.
+100 percent right back at ya.
Guess why Steammit laid off 75 percent of its staff folks. Guess why china miners are dumping their less efficient miners now, Why would they do this if the market was to recover soon in 6 months? Once that 6k bitcoin support price broke that was it. They knew the bear market will drag on much longer. The 6k btc support trend line signified hope and that has been shattered turned into resistance now and any bounce back close to 6k will just get sold off in the near term till no more bag holders left, and this is according to Chris Dunn a well respected professional crypto trader, and he's expecting a longer market cycles due to a bigger market cap size & more market participants compared to last cycle in a slowly maturing market. This is just the nature of market cycles
By the way things are going, it looks like we got another 4-6 months of bear shake out, Icos right now are capitulating eth, people doing legal wash trading to minimize taxes, and the Irs grizzly bear will force those early 2018 traders and 2018 miners that are all underwater, to pay up for taxes owed so they dont' go to jail. This will cover the first half of 2019 and 6 month accumulation till end of 2019, and then back to slow healthy growth in 2020, and party time 2021-2023.
I'm a long term bull so do plan for multi years and protect yourself. No moon and lambos party's with Vitalik and Jihan. Not gonna happen for 2019 so do plan much longer.
Yep, you are one of the few who gets it.
I will know the market has bottomed out when we don't need to point out the obvious any longer and when every post is about "crypto is done", "it's a scam", "ponzi", "I am leaving and not coming back" etc.
That will be the time to start buying as most of the holders and/or moonboys will be selling their $20k, $15k, $10K, and $5k BTC back to us at fire sale prices. Their 10x loss is our 10x+ gain.
The market will recover, it is just a question of when. Unfortunately for many of the people I see posting around here the "when" cannot come soon enough and that is why they are going to end up losing out long term.
It's a dangerous time right now (for sellers) as while I do not think we are at the bottom quite yet, it is obviously a lot closer to us now at $4k than it was when we were above $10K, or even $8K. So to the people who held out this long, you could try shorting and re-buying a bit lower, but your risk/reward ratios are getting worse by the day.
As far as mining, yeah not even worth considering at this point, even with free electricity you still have the capitalization, maintenance, and administrate costs when for the same or even less money you can just buy the coins outright.
I have sold almost all of my rigs at this point and keep just a few 1080Ti around for shits and grins, but I don't think I will be investing in new gear for at least another year, if not two. By then Nvidia should be one or two generations ahead and their cards will be even more efficient than even their current 2080Ti's. We may even have more in the way of FPGAs and ASICs, so yeah any gear you buy now would be pretty much obsolete by then.
