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Topic: The fifth growth spurt - page 2. (Read 4685 times)

legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1013
December 24, 2013, 04:27:35 PM
#2
The pull back after #2 however was very violent and it took 16 months for the next growth spurt. That could happen as well.
I think #2 is an outlier due to what was going on during those 16 months.

It was a nearly-constant stream of high profile Bitcoin sites getting hacked (or sometimes "hacked") and losing customer funds. Mt Gox and Bitcoinica being the largest examples.
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1136
December 24, 2013, 04:18:43 PM
#1
I want to show everyone that predicting what will happen next based on what happened in April is very shortsighted.



Basically we just experienced the 4th growth spurt (or as some people call it: "bubble")

1: to 10^0 between OCT '10 and FEB '11
2: to 10^1 between APR '11 and JUN '11
3: to 10^2 between OCT '12 and APR '13
4: To 10^3 between OCT '13 and DEC '13

The only constant is that every time it's to the next power of 10. The duration of the spurt isn't constant, the pop isn't either and the duration until the next spurt is also different every time.

Look at the pull back for #1. it hardly looks like a pull back and is followed by the next growth spurt 2 months later. That could happen right now too as we start shooting for 10^4 (10000) very fast. The pull back after #2 however was very violent and it took 16 months for the next growth spurt. That could happen as well.
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