Bitcoin is different from other currencies in the past. It relies entirely on the Internet to create and trade. Bitcoin's unique technical attributes derive its economic and cultural attributes beyond the current currency. Bitcoin is an electronic currency produced by open source P2P software. Compared with the current banknotes, the biggest characteristics of Bitcoin are decentralization and global circulation in the network world, followed by high security and high confidentiality. These technical attributes further extend the attributes of non-inflation, non-freezing in economy and non-artificial operation in supply. In culture, Bitcoin is popular among anarchists and liberals. The advantages of Bitcoin have been artificially exaggerated, and its anti-inflation and anti-inflation functions can not withstand scrutiny. In the long run, Bit's prospects are difficult to match gold. In the most optimistic case, Bit's prospects are to become a means of payment in local areas. But in the short and medium term, Bit still has room for speculation and imagination. In addition, the use of Bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security.
1. The advantages of Bitcoin are exaggerated: on decentralization, no transaction costs and inflation prevention
Admittedly, Bitcoin has various advantages over paper money, but these advantages have been over-interpreted. First of all, Bitcoin is a kind of de-centralized currency. It does not have the risk of central bank controlling money supply affecting market value as paper money is a conditional advantage. Bitcoin is mainly held in the hands of big customers, and the market is not deep enough. At present, the buying and selling behavior of big customers is very easy to affect the price of Bitcoin, even when the de-centralization is regarded as a property when Bitcoin is fully mature. Advantages, then, should be added to the prerequisite of holding decentralization. In addition, the degree and type of financial risks exposed by centralized and decentralized online payment systems differ greatly.
Secondly, the low transaction costs of Bitcoin are not without transaction costs. On the contrary, due to the increasing difficulty of Bitcoin mining and the further stability of the currency value, the relevant trading platforms will increase their dependence on transaction costs, which will certainly increase transaction costs. Finally, the confidentiality of the Bitcoin transaction remains to be discussed. The principle of the Bitcoin transaction enables all the processes of each Bitcoin transaction to be stored in each machine. If someone can determine the real background of a transaction, all transactions can be found downward through the data.
Compared with other advantages, the advertised advantages of anti-inflation or anti-inflation attributes can hardly stand scrutiny. Although its supply is stable and the upper limit of supply is locked according to its algorithm, unless the global unification is achieved and all countries use bits as their currency, it can only serve as a means of payment or a store of value, which can not prevent currency oversupply, just as the current existence of gold can not restrain the growth of National currencies. If bits can only be used as a means of payment in local areas (e.g. networks), global or some countries'inflation will still be transmitted to the areas where bits are used. Therefore, the use of bits to prevent inflation is basically not valid or has strong assumptions. As for inflation prevention, that is, to have value storage function, it needs to have gold-like attributes, but in reality, the essential attributes and prospects of bits are still difficult to match gold, as detailed below.
2. Bitcoin has too high foreground
The market's expectations of Bitcoin's prospects are generally higher than those of gold and the dollar. The recognition of gold is not only due to its natural physical properties, but also due to its official acceptance as a reserve currency (or an important allocation of foreign exchange assets). In theory, as an electronic currency, Bitcoin does not have the status of uniqueness and exclusiveness, and it is more difficult to become the official reserve of central banks like gold. Therefore, it is not appropriate to expect too much from Peter. As an electronic currency, bits have the advantage of first-mover. If it can be guaranteed in terms of security, the most optimistic prospect of bits is to be used as a means of payment in local areas.
3. The speculation and speculative demand caused by event factors are the main reasons for the rise of Bitcoin in this round.
Under the credit monetary system, people's lack of confidence in the currencies of various countries and their pessimistic economic prospects are the general environment for the rise of Bitcoin. The market's major traders and Bitcoin derivatives market speculation and participants'speculative psychology further accelerated its rise. Incidents such as BTCChina's $5 million investment and Bernanke's announcement are the main drivers of the recent surge.
However, many big crocodiles began to enter the market and buy a lot, which promoted the price of bits to rise and also increased market risk. Chamath, a former Facebook executive, has spent $5 million on Bitcoin and plans to spend another $10 million. Bitcoin Investment Trust also overfulfilled its target in four weeks, raising $15 million. These investments make Bitcoin rise further while concentrating Bitcoin holdings, which strengthens the impact of individuals and institutions on the price of Bitcoin and increases market risks.
4. Short and medium term bits still have strong speculation space.
Although our previous analysis is not optimistic about the future of Bit, it is likely that Bit will still have strong speculative space in a short to medium term period of one year. As in the previous analysis, Bitcoin creators advocate that the creation of Bitcoin is not manipulated by human factors, which is very different from the credit currencies of various countries. We anticipate that next year the major countries'monetary policies may be divided, and Bitcoin will have better speculation and imagination when economic risks are released and traditional asset markets are severely damaged.
5. The use of Bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security.
The U.S. government seized the drug-trading website SilkRoad early last month. A crowdsourcing network called "Assassination Market" has even marked the sale of murderers with bitcoins. The founder of the assassination market, named Kuwabatake Sanjuro, is an extreme anarchist. Whether the prism gate incident or the use of Bitcoin in the relevant sensitive areas, all highlight the increasingly prominent position of the information field in national security. The Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee proposed the establishment of the National Security Committee, which will play an important role in China's security strategy and expand from traditional national defense, stability/urban security to new areas such as information security.