Topic: The great rally will begin at the next slight drop (Read 2478 times)

Maybe the next conference should be across the street from Wall Street...

If the CNN's of this world show up at the Bitcoin conference, the story will make it on the news. It may get bumped by, say, the Dow collapsing. But eventually it will make it.

Most "collectables" are deflationary; the supply is finite and declines over time as some are lost. That doesn't mean they will increase in value. Check out collectable plates on eBay..  Want a Star Trek collectable plate?  One can be yours for only $4.50.  It probably cost more new. Look at all those "0 bids" items. Most will never sell. 

Prices could get swingy this weekend

Oh.. and another reason the conference may do nothing for bitcoin - is that it might happen to coincide with some other news that grabs the general public's attention more.
Even if the the big stories are economics related..  any bitcoin news developments could get lost in the noise.

+1

xali, you have the right idea for the long term, but right now Bitcoin is fantastically inflationary, to the tune of 7200 new coins every day. In about eight months (and I might be wrong, so someone who knows more about it should correct me if that's the case), the payout drops by half, to 3600 coins a day.

What is somewhat remarkable is that even at 7200 new coins a day, the value is still holding as well as it is.

Certainly, in the long run, bitcoin will be deflationary. But right now it's far from it.

It's not some magical "always going to increase no matter what" deflation.

The massive increase to 30 was indeed some sort of bubble and was much higher than natural deflation should have accounted for. The drop from 30, economically speaking was bound to happen simply because it was "correcting" itself. But then it kept on dropping due to the momentum it has, another bubble or something. Now the value is TOO low and it should correct itself the other way.

Maybe the value of bitcoin will simply rapidly go up and down constantly correcting itself, with the overall average price slowly increasing.

What I mean is, from the perspective of the vast majority of new buyers of bitcoins over the past 2 months, bitcoin is not deflationary.  Their bitcoins are very probably worth less than what they paid for them.  It's certainly the case that at least some people bought bitcoins after the MtGox incident at $17 on the belief that they would soon be worth more than $17.  So, while in theory bitcoin may be, or could be, deflationary, in practical terms its deflationary nature hasn't presented itself to any of those such people.  

Presumably at each successive move downward over the past months some newcomers to bitcoin have bought on the belief that bitcoin is deflationary and their newly purchased bitcoins would soon be worth more than what they paid for them.  Are the new buyers' coins purchased at $30 worth more than what they paid for them?  $25?  $20?  $18?  $16?  $15?  $14?  $13?  Even $12?  

Sure, perhaps some lucky newcomers managed to grab some bitcoins during the relatively brief period we spent below where we are now. But, over the past couple of months or so, very probably many, many more newcomers spent more on their bitcoins than they are presently worth.  Make sense now?

In other words, to the vast majority of newcomers to bitcoin who bought bitcoins sometime during the past couple of months or so, saying that bitcoins are deflationary is probably annoying, since that putative property of bitcoins has yet to materialize for them.

what do you mean? why would the new buyers need to hear that it's deflationary?

Tell that to the vast majority of new buyers over the past 2 months.

OH LOOK THE TROLLS ARE GETTING MORE SUBTLE. Bitcoins are deflationary, that's a fact. Spend some time on the wiki more.
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Myths#It.27s_a_giant_ponzi_scheme
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_Currency_Supply

Why? There's nothing in the fundamentals which should cause it to increase. The original run-up was pure momentum enthusiasm typical of a bubble. That's over.



Since the bubble burst in June, Bitcoin has been in a long, slow slide. Every once in a while, there's a week or two of drama, and the fans start yelling "CRASH" or "RALLY". After the drama, the price has consistently settled a little lower. Here's the last two months:



That's the reality. Almost nobody uses Bitcoins for real transactions, and Bitcoin itself generates no revenue. So it's a zero sum game among speculators. That's a pyramid scheme.   

I don't think the existing 'BelieverDollars' are yet numerous enough to produce some sustained sizeable rally..  and if they are, I don't suspect they'd need some special dippy signal to decide "it's on".  They might just start with a sneaky drift up which gathers momentum.

While I do have a bullish hunch that the long term future of Bitcoin will involve significantly higher valuations..  it *could* be many years or decades away.
There might also be a wide chasm of low prices due to government crackdowns in between now and then.

I'm hopeful however that things like the upcoming conference giving publicity, and the sheer pace of software infrastructure development around bitcoin,
may allow it to 'outrun' serious corporate or government intervention.  

It's entirely possible that relatively sudden scale and popularity will give rise to a range of growing pains.... thefts/outages/losses/slowdowns as systems struggle to cope.
Not just the 3rd party services around bitcoin - but the network and core software itself if growth occurs too fast for the development team to handle. That sort of growth is an 'outside' chance in my mind though.

Anyway.. yes.. I dare to 'expect' an overall rise of a couple of dollars over the next 2 weeks if there is a reasonable amount of positive and interesting media attention arising from the conference.  
(This is despite my previous attempts to spot rough price correlations with various positive and negative news stories - and finding bitcoin charts usually have a way of surprising and confounding)

If there are some really good news stories on major networks  - plus some announcements about software releases (especially mobile related) and/or things like bitcoinATMs being placed in prime spots.. then I'd even dare hope for a 'great rally' of up to about $20.

BEHOLD THE TROLLS. please stop derping my thread

It's all right there in the head and shoulders... or the inverted head and shoulders... or the reverse cowgirl 

That's boldly numeric of you..    Sounds like you're bullish on the possibility of some zig-zagging occurring on the charts!

19 times out of 20

^This^
...but possibly faster or slower than we expect.

It will either go up and down the next time it goes up or down.