Wasn't 45K BTC about what was stole from Bitcoinica? Maybe this is the tactic Zhou took to fill his reserves. If that's the case, you'd expect that wall to hold.
Alternative theory: Someone put up a blatant wall to define a temporary bottom and is selling higher, somewhere around 4.8 USD per BTC, using a bot to avoid placing a wall there. I'm not sure the volume we're seeing really justifies this theory. Does anyone have historical depth data for the last few days? If this scenario is correct, you should see significant resistance at 4.8-ish which isn't reflected in the market depth charts.
Topic: The Great Wall of March 26 (Read 3970 times)
I believe bitcoinica hedges with market orders on MtGox. Do limit orders on bitcoinica ever appear as a bid/ask on MtGox?
Well bitcoinica.com orders are not being match on mtgox, unless it has to meaning buying and selling on mtgox, if bitcoinica.com can own enough Bitcoin and cash, then there is no reason to buy and sell via mtgox
Starting to think it's an order from bitcoinica.com it would make sense to buy a hugh order and no longer pay any fees on mtgox especially when 4.60 could be the new 2.
Right, because it somehow makes sense to pay extra fees on a $40000 order....
Starting to think it's an order from bitcoinica.com it would make sense to buy a hugh order and no longer pay any fees on mtgox especially when 4.60 could be the new 2.
dont kid yourself... you think it wasn't a good move?
he was hoping it would get sold into... but ya, not gana happen
he was hoping it would get sold into... but ya, not gana happen
Well, the thing is, whoever this person is, they are either a bear that doesn't know what they are doing, or they are a bull that is being quite blatant.
While the former is funny, the latter makes me wonder just who the hell it is...
Its a bullish, aggressive market-maker who already has a significant amount of coin. The wall is there to inspire buyers and push the price higher. I'm sure he has much more cash that's not in the bids, and would probably put another wall up if this one is sold into (as he did back in November. a big seller sold into the wall two times iirc, and put back up immediately after each time).
The fact that we see the wall go up now, to me indicates that after the drop from $7, this market-maker probably accumulated a lot of the coins around $5.5, then around $4.5-$4.75 (see the hot spots on https://ferroh.com/chart?t=180d). So he needs to push the price back up, above his average cost per coin, to stay profitable.
He's very well funded, probably having (in addition to substantial coin, at the moment) more cash than the market has coins. After seeing how it played out in November, he'll probably be successful. Little reason to suspect this is a bluff bid where he's simultaneously unloading coins with asks at $4.75-$5.0.
I think he'll push it to over $5.5, but we might see some resistance if he starts trying to unload above $6. More likely he'll wait until higher. A push from here is enough to send the market over $7.2.
I have been waiting for the Bitcoin to drop before getting in, looks like I have no choice but to start buying at around $5 
Considering the price is $4.7 - 4.8 currently. $5 might be a tad to late. But, I don't get this speculation thing. I'm probably missing something.
I have been waiting for the Bitcoin to drop before getting in, looks like I have no choice but to start buying at around $5
says the Hero Member
I have been waiting for the Bitcoin to drop before getting in, looks like I have no choice but to start buying at around $5
dont kid yourself... you think it wasn't a good move?
he was hoping it would get sold into... but ya, not gana happen
he was hoping it would get sold into... but ya, not gana happen
Well, the thing is, whoever this person is, they are either a bear that doesn't know what they are doing, or they are a bull that is being quite blatant.
While the former is funny, the latter makes me wonder just who the hell it is...
the bull had been accumulating at the low 4's b4 putting up this wall
wouldn't you wana be the owner of the wall?
hes in a very good position right now.
dont kid yourself... you think it wasn't a good move?
he was hoping it would get sold into... but ya, not gana happen
he was hoping it would get sold into... but ya, not gana happen
Well, the thing is, whoever this person is, they are either a bear that doesn't know what they are doing, or they are a bull that is being quite blatant.
While the former is funny, the latter makes me wonder just who the hell it is...
The wall at $2.2 was the first thing I thought of when I saw this new wall at $4.6.
It was 50k BTC. It was removed overnight, but price only dropped to $1.949 (iirc) on weak selling volume. It was back up the following day.
It is a spirit of Satoshi
Maybe they don't know what they are doing?
dont kid yourself... you think it wasn't a good move?
he was hoping it would get sold into... but ya, not gana happen
The thing that I've found the most surprising about these most recent bidwalls is that they don't go away. They form and get sold into gradually. This is much different from the bidwalls in November, where someone was gaming algorithm trade bots to then drop the wall and sell into the bot bids. It is almost as if whoever is doing this actually does want to accumulate coin.
In fact, in the last five days or so it has become clear that for the first time in a very long while (since before July of 2011 as far as I remember) the ratio for how far the price increases on 10k+ buys compared to the ratio for how far the price falls on 10k+ sells is actually higher. Even when the price increased from the $2 range to $7 in December/January it took a significant buyer to achieve this. Now, if a similar significant buyer came in and did the same thing, the price would move exponentially higher.
The reason why this bugs me, of course, is because I want to see gradual and rational increases in price relative to difficulty. What is setting up right now seems to be irrational gains for hardly any movement whatsoever. I would highly advise anyone trading to leverage themselves accordingly and not hold strong positions on either the long or short side right now because the volatility risk is extremely high.
TLDR; I am still not convinced this isn't a bidwall manipulator who will drop it in a second's notice to sell into trading bots, but it just doesn't seem like that has been the case these last few days. Maybe they don't know what they are doing?
In fact, in the last five days or so it has become clear that for the first time in a very long while (since before July of 2011 as far as I remember) the ratio for how far the price increases on 10k+ buys compared to the ratio for how far the price falls on 10k+ sells is actually higher. Even when the price increased from the $2 range to $7 in December/January it took a significant buyer to achieve this. Now, if a similar significant buyer came in and did the same thing, the price would move exponentially higher.
The reason why this bugs me, of course, is because I want to see gradual and rational increases in price relative to difficulty. What is setting up right now seems to be irrational gains for hardly any movement whatsoever. I would highly advise anyone trading to leverage themselves accordingly and not hold strong positions on either the long or short side right now because the volatility risk is extremely high.
TLDR; I am still not convinced this isn't a bidwall manipulator who will drop it in a second's notice to sell into trading bots, but it just doesn't seem like that has been the case these last few days. Maybe they don't know what they are doing?
whos ready for $6? 
We really need historic depth.
not 100% but interesting
(updated on http://bitcoinx.com/charts at the bottom)
yawn
the plan is simple
1 We kill the Batman.
Fixed it for you. 1 We kill the Batman.
the last time we had a wall of this size and determination was at $2. i was a part of that. i think we have a new bottom.
The $2 walls were a much larger portion of the market. MtGoxLive's graph showed 50K BTC on the bid wall and 25K BTC in other bids... this time it's 45K BTC on the bid wall and 115K BTC in other bids.
yes but the # of USD's is larger.
there's no denying this is bullish. i've said $4 is the new $2 psychologically. you're free to disagree but this bid has been put front and center @ $4.60. someone wants IN in a big way.
Or that's what they want people to think so they can drop the wall and squeeze the longs. Don't be so sure you know another's motive. Like Proudhon said, seen it before.
I don't know who's right, and maybe it is still up in the air for the person who placed the wall. He/She could be waiting to see how the market handles the threat to know what the best way to take it is.
i guess the only way for us to know is if ppl starting hitting the wall. somebody step up, please.
as an aside. if you took down this 40K BTC wall, the bid side still outnumbers the ask side.
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