I don't believe your theory on stock dividends / stock price is accurate.
else why don't the hedge funds just buy stocks 1 week before dividends and then sell the day after? if it was such an easy market beating strategy they would all be on it. I work for a lot of hedge funds and none of them do this.
You could just as easily speculate big money is smarter than that regarding bitcoin, IE buy bitcoin when it is down and far in advance, and then sell to the masses as halving gets closer? I am not saying I am smart money, but it is certainly what I did, in for average of $220 and out for average of $418
Either way I don't see what the point of holding bitcoin here is. The only things that make sense is to sell here, and wait to see if it can close daily over $500. If it does buy back in. So you might lose 10% gains but if it doesn't break $500 you will be able to buy back in much more than at a 10% discount from here. Probabilities.
But each has their own game plan.
Topic: the halving is priced in - face it.... - page 2. (Read 2832 times)
you know that spike from Nov to now? where it more than doubled? that is the halving priced in....
why? markets are forward looking, the halving is going to surprise exactly no one.
anyways daily volume is pathetic, I sold all my BTC again for a 2nd time.
Maybe I am wrong and it goes back to $1000, who knows, all I know is I am out with good profits again for 2nd time.
why? markets are forward looking, the halving is going to surprise exactly no one.
anyways daily volume is pathetic, I sold all my BTC again for a 2nd time.
Maybe I am wrong and it goes back to $1000, who knows, all I know is I am out with good profits again for 2nd time.
There's a problem with that analysis: The risk of holding Bitcoin from a given time as well as the returns you could earn until then by using the money to the halving (time value of money) is also priced in.
The closer we get to the halving, the more valuable it becomes and the more effect it can have on the price.
To look at it another way, don't you think some people are either A) holding off until we get closer before buying or B) buying gradually as we get closer? That will have an effect.
It's a lot like dividends on stocks: The price gradually rises as the dividend date approaches. It's only completely priced in just before dividends are paid out. Once they are paid out, the price drops to reflect that dividends are now a year away.
The difference with Bitcoin, of course, is that the halving represents a permanent decrease in inflation, so there likely won't be an immediate drop.
anything can happen, sure I agree to that.
But trading is based on probabilities, since you can never be certain of anything.
so, the question are:
what are the odds that halving is priced in?
what are the odds traders are long BTC already and ready to dump?
what are the odds lots of new money floods in sparking a buying frenzy?
But trading is based on probabilities, since you can never be certain of anything.
so, the question are:
what are the odds that halving is priced in?
what are the odds traders are long BTC already and ready to dump?
what are the odds lots of new money floods in sparking a buying frenzy?
Say you are right, and the halving is already priced in. The thing is, that doesn't stop there from being further speculative increase or new ATHs based on manic FOMO alone. They just wouldn't last very long. Kind of like every other bubble we've had...
getting that feeling again, I don't like the low volume, I don't like the chinese miners, I dont like the developers fighting, I don't like euthereum showing up on the scene,
so, in summary, if it goes to $1000 I will be happy for all of you, but I won't feel sorry for myself.
will I buy back in a 3rd time? I don't know at this point it will take some convincing.
i
so, in summary, if it goes to $1000 I will be happy for all of you, but I won't feel sorry for myself.
will I buy back in a 3rd time? I don't know at this point it will take some convincing.
i
There is always the alt-coin scene for you to take some profits. I share the same sentiment, but I don't ardently believe that the next halving is already priced in. Chinese pools having massive hash powers over 50%? Totally not cool. Low trading volume in exchanges? Traders must have already accumulated hefty amounts of coins waiting to be dumped. Devs fighthing? Causes a stir in the community, creating panic. ETH? That's the least of bitcoin's problems.
The alt scene is always open for those opportunistic people wanting to take some profits but don't want to take the risks of being burned by the already messy ecosystem of bitcoin.
the low trade volume on bitcoin really bugs me a lot..... usually that is a very bad omen.
Nah, falling $4 on 900 BTC sold is perfectly normal and healthy for a $6 billion dollar uncensorable settlement token. After all, it only took a few thousand $ to retrace 50% of that drop.
yeah that is what has always bugged me about BTC
assuming chinese volumes are fake, which I believe they are, BTC trade volume is just crazy thin, and always has been so. Reminds me of a game of chicken, as in who can hold the longest before they panic sell, forcing everyone else to panic sell.
Anyways, if it closes above $500 on a daily basis, I will buy back in smallish amount.
we will see
right now its trying to break out to the upside
but its stalling out a bit......
it better get moving up, coz if it reverses to the downside and breaks low after a fake high, there will be panic at the disco
right now its trying to break out to the upside
but its stalling out a bit......
it better get moving up, coz if it reverses to the downside and breaks low after a fake high, there will be panic at the disco
The halving is not priced in yet. The recent bitcoin price rise is mainly related to the mass adoption of the bitcoin.
It may be true the halving is partly priced in, but i do see the halving is 2 months away and already there is a tumult on the markets
Which means we will see an even higher price then today.
The halving is not priced in yet. The recent bitcoin price rise is mainly related to the mass adoption of the bitcoin.
It may be true the halving is partly priced in, but i do see the halving is 2 months away and already there is a tumult on the markets
Which means we will see an even higher price then today.
The halving is not priced in yet. The recent bitcoin price rise is mainly related to the mass adoption of the bitcoin.
Nice try zionist banking shills. Click "talks_cheep"'s post history. Every single post says "price is going to crash to 0 any second!" for like a year straight. Yet the price goes from $200 to $500 while he's typing that. It's a clear banker shill spam account.
I also think it's priced in, only the bulltards and cockroaches believe it's not. We all know the halving will occur in July, a few months from now. Traders deal in futures all the time, they anticipate the price. If you are waiting for the price to rocket to the moon, you will be waiting FOREVER, it ain't happening. We will see a gradual increase to maybe 500 until July. The actual halving will be a NON-EVENT in terms of price action.
and we busy breaking out the bottom of the big triangle now
not that i think chart patterns really mean anything
not that i think chart patterns really mean anything
The bottom? You mean upside?
and we busy breaking out the bottom of the big triangle now
not that i think chart patterns really mean anything
not that i think chart patterns really mean anything
getting that feeling again, I don't like the low volume, I don't like the chinese miners, I dont like the developers fighting, I don't like euthereum showing up on the scene,
so, in summary, if it goes to $1000 I will be happy for all of you, but I won't feel sorry for myself.
will I buy back in a 3rd time? I don't know at this point it will take some convincing.
i
so, in summary, if it goes to $1000 I will be happy for all of you, but I won't feel sorry for myself.
will I buy back in a 3rd time? I don't know at this point it will take some convincing.
i
the low trade volume on bitcoin really bugs me a lot..... usually that is a very bad omen.
i wouldn't really call 15,000 USD low trade volume(according to bitcoinwisdom)
and it gets even bigger if you check out coinmarketcap which includes all the exchangers and all trade volumes in USD (EUR, JPY,CNY,...) which is $50,700,000 at the moment and growing.
also i want to add that whenever the price is stable the trade volume decreases because there are less day-traders trading bitcoin.
If you think the block halving is priced in, then sell your coins, which you already did. Good for you, but what's the point of letting us know that you sold? Just to make youself feel good while you know that the price will go up from this point? Good luck with buying back.
I, uh, think that's suitable advice for the OP (if you know what I mean
). I'm not convinced it's good advice in general, however.-snip-
I should have made it a bit more clear I guess.
I meant that when some one is thinking the current price may be the top (for now) that he can better sell his coins now, and buy back lower as he is clearly expecting the price to go lower since he sold his coins. That's what traders do to make profit. Buy low and sell high. 
If you think the block halving is priced in, then sell your coins, which you already did. Good for you, but what's the point of letting us know that you sold? Just to make youself feel good while you know that the price will go up from this point? Good luck with buying back.
I, uh, think that's suitable advice for the OP (if you know what I mean
). I'm not convinced it's good advice in general, however.The block halving being priced in doesn't mean that the price now is the price forever more. It simply means that traders are aware that the halving will occur. Let me put it like this... if you have a bond, say, that pays $10 a month for the next 12 months, and then returns the initial principle of $100 - how much would that be worth to me? Clearly not $220 (because if I had $220 now, why would I tie it up just so I could receive it back in 12 months time?) It's the same with BTC - the price (broadly) reflects the fact that halving will occur in several months time, not simply that the halving will occur. A rational trader isn't going to buy BTC for the money they think it'll be worth in July - but they will take their estimate of July's worth into account when deciding how much they're prepared to pay for BTC in April.
There's also all the other fundamentals, and the usual short- and medium-term noise caused by trading, none of which suddenly disappear simply because we know the halving is coming!
tl;dr - Yes, the halving is priced in. No, that doesn't mean that trading BTC has suddenly become pointless! (I'm still hodling).
If you think the block halving is priced in, then sell your coins, which you already did. Good for you, but what's the point of letting us know that you sold? Just to make youself feel good while you know that the price will go up from this point? Good luck with buying back.
you know that spike from Nov to now? where it more than doubled? that is the halving priced in....
why? markets are forward looking, the halving is going to surprise exactly no one.
anyways daily volume is pathetic, I sold all my BTC again for a 2nd time.
Maybe I am wrong and it goes back to $1000, who knows, all I know is I am out with good profits again for 2nd time.
why? markets are forward looking, the halving is going to surprise exactly no one.
anyways daily volume is pathetic, I sold all my BTC again for a 2nd time.
Maybe I am wrong and it goes back to $1000, who knows, all I know is I am out with good profits again for 2nd time.
Ok then bye bye!!Enjoy your profits.
If we should go up in price I will bump this thread at least once a week!
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