The indicator we're all ignoring - page 2.

FreeMoney

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1016

Strength in numbers

Quote from: cypherdoc on August 16, 2012, 09:07:38 PM

there's no way we've lost 1.5 million Bitcoins.

I don't think that many are totally lost, but it isn't impossible. It was a toy for over a year, 0 value, no market for buying or selling them whatsoever. Hell, it was over a year before someone bought 2 pizzas for 10000BTC.

People downloaded, mined for a few hours or longer, had 50 or 1000 or more coins totally forgot about it, sold the computer, formatted the drive whatever.

cypherdoc

legendary

Activity: 1764

Merit: 1002

the last total from this thread which i thought was the most definitive tracker was 38669.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.983065

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Quote from: dree12 on August 16, 2012, 09:09:20 PM

Nor does his argument make sense. Deflation of the money supply can only lower the market cap now compared to then, not increase it.

Assuming he's thinking like me, he likely believes the majority were lost before they had significant value when people tried it out and then got bored and deleted it since at the time you couldn't do much with these fancy internet tokens.

Quote from: cypherdoc on August 16, 2012, 09:07:38 PM

there's no way we've lost 1.5 million Bitcoins.

Maybe, maybe not. There were significant amounts lost before the economy really bootstrapped though.

dree12

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1077

Nor does his argument make sense. Deflation of the money supply can only lower the market cap now compared to then, not increase it.

cypherdoc

legendary

Activity: 1764

Merit: 1002

there's no way we've lost 1.5 million Bitcoins.

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Quote from: dree12 on August 16, 2012, 08:45:47 PM

Quote from: notme on August 16, 2012, 07:49:37 PM

Quote from: dree12 on August 16, 2012, 07:38:07 PM

Quote from: sunnankar on August 16, 2012, 07:28:04 PM

Quote from: TTBit on August 16, 2012, 07:09:11 PM

The issue I have with 'bitcoin market cap' is that the inflation rate is known. We all know (generally) how many bitcoins there will be on any specific date in the future. When considering the market cap of bitcoin, I use 20m as a ballpark figure. $50/btc will be $1B cap and quite the milestone.

A more important issue I have with the 'bitcoin market cap' is the deflation rate. My best guess puts it around 1.5m bitcoins. That would make the previous record market cap at $101m=(((149m/31.9)-1.5m)*31.9). The current market cap would be about $110.7m=((9.7-1.5)*13.5). Thus, it appears we are at a new all-time high in terms of intrinsic value (Yes, I know the term has all types of issues).

Bitcoin's money supply is hyperinflating, not deflating. USD happens to be deflating, but at such a low rate it doesn't really stack up.

He's referring to lost/destroyed coins.

That's dwarfed by created coins at this rate.

Right, but he quantified his approximation of how many have been lost and used that to adjust the market cap figures...

He made no claim that it is overall deflationary if that's what you're arguing against.

dree12

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1077

Quote from: notme on August 16, 2012, 07:49:37 PM

Quote from: dree12 on August 16, 2012, 07:38:07 PM

Quote from: sunnankar on August 16, 2012, 07:28:04 PM

Quote from: TTBit on August 16, 2012, 07:09:11 PM

The issue I have with 'bitcoin market cap' is that the inflation rate is known. We all know (generally) how many bitcoins there will be on any specific date in the future. When considering the market cap of bitcoin, I use 20m as a ballpark figure. $50/btc will be $1B cap and quite the milestone.

A more important issue I have with the 'bitcoin market cap' is the deflation rate. My best guess puts it around 1.5m bitcoins. That would make the previous record market cap at $101m=(((149m/31.9)-1.5m)*31.9). The current market cap would be about $110.7m=((9.7-1.5)*13.5). Thus, it appears we are at a new all-time high in terms of intrinsic value (Yes, I know the term has all types of issues).

Bitcoin's money supply is hyperinflating, not deflating. USD happens to be deflating, but at such a low rate it doesn't really stack up.

He's referring to lost/destroyed coins.

That's dwarfed by created coins at this rate.

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Quote from: dree12 on August 16, 2012, 07:38:07 PM

Quote from: sunnankar on August 16, 2012, 07:28:04 PM

Quote from: TTBit on August 16, 2012, 07:09:11 PM

The issue I have with 'bitcoin market cap' is that the inflation rate is known. We all know (generally) how many bitcoins there will be on any specific date in the future. When considering the market cap of bitcoin, I use 20m as a ballpark figure. $50/btc will be $1B cap and quite the milestone.

A more important issue I have with the 'bitcoin market cap' is the deflation rate. My best guess puts it around 1.5m bitcoins. That would make the previous record market cap at $101m=(((149m/31.9)-1.5m)*31.9). The current market cap would be about $110.7m=((9.7-1.5)*13.5). Thus, it appears we are at a new all-time high in terms of intrinsic value (Yes, I know the term has all types of issues).

Bitcoin's money supply is hyperinflating, not deflating. USD happens to be deflating, but at such a low rate it doesn't really stack up.

He's referring to lost/destroyed coins.

dree12

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1077

Quote from: sunnankar on August 16, 2012, 07:28:04 PM

Quote from: TTBit on August 16, 2012, 07:09:11 PM

The issue I have with 'bitcoin market cap' is that the inflation rate is known. We all know (generally) how many bitcoins there will be on any specific date in the future. When considering the market cap of bitcoin, I use 20m as a ballpark figure. $50/btc will be $1B cap and quite the milestone.

A more important issue I have with the 'bitcoin market cap' is the deflation rate. My best guess puts it around 1.5m bitcoins. That would make the previous record market cap at $101m=(((149m/31.9)-1.5m)*31.9). The current market cap would be about $110.7m=((9.7-1.5)*13.5). Thus, it appears we are at a new all-time high in terms of intrinsic value (Yes, I know the term has all types of issues).

Bitcoin's money supply is hyperinflating, not deflating. USD happens to be deflating, but at such a low rate it doesn't really stack up.

sunnankar

legendary

Activity: 1031

Merit: 1000

Quote from: TTBit on August 16, 2012, 07:09:11 PM

The issue I have with 'bitcoin market cap' is that the inflation rate is known. We all know (generally) how many bitcoins there will be on any specific date in the future. When considering the market cap of bitcoin, I use 20m as a ballpark figure. $50/btc will be $1B cap and quite the milestone.

A more important issue I have with the 'bitcoin market cap' is the deflation rate. My best guess puts it around 1.5m bitcoins. That would make the previous record market cap at $101m=(((149m/31.9)-1.5m)*31.9). The current market cap would be about $110.7m=((9.7-1.5)*13.5). Thus, it appears we are at a new all-time high in terms of intrinsic value (Yes, I know the term has all types of issues).

TTBit

legendary

Activity: 1137

Merit: 1001

The issue I have with 'bitcoin market cap' is that the inflation rate is known. We all know (generally) how many bitcoins there will be on any specific date in the future. When considering the market cap of bitcoin, I use 20m as a ballpark figure. $50/btc will be $1B cap and quite the milestone.

humanitee

hero member

Activity: 1302

Merit: 502

I've seen market cap talked about quite a few times recently.

Check out this spike:
http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular

dree12

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1077

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on August 16, 2012, 05:56:24 PM

Quote from: dree12 on August 16, 2012, 04:44:52 PM

Blockchain.info All-time 7-day Average Market Cap, 2012-08-16

I'm going to take snapshots of this frequently, because I suspect that we're surpassing the record high (back in June 2011) soon, at least well before either market cap (non-averaged) or price will. It'll be an interesting milestone for Bitcoin.

Is this just the currently available coins? if so, that would explain why we would pass June '11 cap., without the price passing the $31.90 high. We have nearly Three-million more coins than back then.

Yes. It's more accurate because it factors in the Bitcoin money supply hyperinflation. Even more accurate would be to factor in USD money supply inflation/deflation, but that is very small or even negative.

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: dree12 on August 16, 2012, 04:44:52 PM

Blockchain.info All-time 7-day Average Market Cap, 2012-08-16

I'm going to take snapshots of this frequently, because I suspect that we're surpassing the record high (back in June 2011) soon, at least well before either market cap (non-averaged) or price will. It'll be an interesting milestone for Bitcoin.

Is this just the currently available coins? if so, that would explain why we would pass June '11 cap., without the price passing the $31.90 high. We have nearly Three-million more coins than back then.

On a side note, looks like a correction is due! Wink

dree12

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1077

Blockchain.info All-time 7-day Average Market Cap, 2012-08-16

Blockchain.info All-time 7-day Average Market Cap, 2012-08-17

Blockchain.info All-time 7-day Average Market Cap, 2012-08-18

Blockchain.info All-time 7-day Average Market Cap, 2012-08-19

I'm going to take snapshots of this frequently, because I suspect that we're surpassing the record high (back in June 2011) soon, at least well before either market cap (non-averaged) or price will. It'll be an interesting milestone for Bitcoin.

Topic: The indicator we're all ignoring - page 2. (Read 3768 times)