The Man Who Called the 2008 Market Bubble Says This One Could Pop in Spring

Hydrogen

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Quote from: jaysabi on January 08, 2021, 11:40:52 PM

You should substantiate your claim that the vaccine won’t work against the new strains of the virus because it seems critical to your assessment that this guy I’ve never heard of is right about a collapse, and more importantly all evidence I’ve seen reported so far are that the current vaccines are effective against the new Uk strain of the virus.

IMO exaggerated promises surrounding vaccines are made to prop up stock markets and public morale.

Vaccines never lived up to their marketing hype. Not with flu shots. Nor with gardisil and HPV vaccines.

There's no reason to believe anything has changed there.

Napoleon said leaders deal in hope. Offering hope to the masses is where vaccines come in. Aside from that I expect little or no real world value from them.

KennyR

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Different vaccines around the globe has started to be used on human bodies. Few have already shown side effects, two of the vaccines have lead to the death of the person after one or two days of time. The market of bitcoin in comparison to the external market is moving good. The second form of corona is creating panic and it is true the present vaccine isn't able to stop its vigorous spreading. Some parts have gone on shutdown fearing the spread, but right now it is spread to limited locations.

Harlot

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If the prediction is true I don't think that even Bitcoin could be immune in price drops because recession is a different thing and even if people have learned to take advantage of price drops by now or "be greedy when everyone else is fearful" I don't think it will apply for those people who have lost their jobs and has nothing left but to liquidate their assets in order to have money for their basic needs. They'll be backed into a corner forcing them to sell everything just to survive depending on how long will this recession continue.

crzy

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Quote from: BrewMaster on January 11, 2021, 02:36:11 PM

the biggest problem i see could happen when all those people who have paid a lot of money to be vaccinated with these untested vaccines let their guard down and then get infected with the virus again and we see another peak in the pandemic which would kick start the depression and the economical devastation as the medical companies responsible would go bankrupt in the subsequent lawsuits and won't be able to actually work on a proper vaccine that works.

The public will be mad for sure and fake news will all over again just to punish the company who created the vaccine. Well, this is expected on the early stage of vaccine since its really hard to create a vaccine even if we have good technologies nowadays. I don’t want to participate to any free vaccine trial, maybe I’ll get some in the next 3 years when everything is fine again.

AndySt

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Quote from: BrewMaster on January 11, 2021, 02:36:11 PM

the biggest problem i see could happen when all those people who have paid a lot of money to be vaccinated with these untested vaccines let their guard down and then get infected with the virus again and we see another peak in the pandemic which would kick start the depression and the economical devastation as the medical companies responsible would go bankrupt in the subsequent lawsuits and won't be able to actually work on a proper vaccine that works.

I do not think that the number of such people will be so large as to make a significant impact in the fight against the pandemic. Much more dangerous may be the fact that due to emergency circumstances, all developed vaccines are practically tested on vaccinated people and we can not know what negative consequences this may bring in the future. As well as non-compliance with the temperature regime during transportation and storage of vaccine doses, which can lead to partial or complete inefficiency for vaccinated people.

Smartprofit

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The growth of the stock market is associated with the uncontrolled emission of US dollars.

If not for the growth of the stock market, then the surplus money supply would have entered the consumer market. What is the threat? In this situation, prices for food, utilities, transport, electronics, etc. will rise.

Also, the problem of the US external debt remains. How to pay off such a huge external debt?

All these economic problems are related to each other.

The world crisis of 2008-2009 is not over yet. This crisis continues to this day.

teosanru

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The other day I heard that the Vaccine is successful against the new strain, both of them the one found in UK as well as the other found in Africa. Here is the link to the article: https://www.hindustantimes.com/science/scientists-study-vaccines-effectiveness-against-new-covid-strains/story-qeFjKHBWWFUXe2wWINVxOJ.html

But yes there is one thing that is pretty different from regular instances that is the markets are behaving in a pretty unusual manner. If you see closely the markets are hovering around all-time highs while we still are amidst the biggest pandemic of the century. This in itself looks a bit skeptical to me. Moreover, even the governer of our national bank stated this fact but I think Investors maybe are seeing this is an opportunity to invest in growing economies at a bargain price which led to this sudden surge.

BrewMaster

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the biggest problem i see could happen when all those people who have paid a lot of money to be vaccinated with these untested vaccines let their guard down and then get infected with the virus again and we see another peak in the pandemic which would kick start the depression and the economical devastation as the medical companies responsible would go bankrupt in the subsequent lawsuits and won't be able to actually work on a proper vaccine that works.

el kaka22

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I do agree that it became a bit of a bubble and that's the problem. Do you know how you can calculate it?
Well take Tesla for example, we know how big it became very suddenly, did they suddenly sold that many cars to cover that? No. Why did it went up?

Because people believed in the future of the project, yet stock market doesn't work like that, you do not buy premium price right now for the future success, if you think it will be great in the future, you buy from current price and wait until it becomes successful, but people are buying tesla stocks like it is already there. Tesla needs to sell about 100 times more cars per year in order to justify this stock price, but people say it will reach there anyway, that is not how any of this works. Plus during covid period where people can barely buy groceries and pay rent, it is silly to think all these companies will have huge profits, they are pumped up because they got bail money but that's it, they will go down.

Coyster

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Quote from: Pito001 on January 10, 2021, 08:46:07 AM

In this case crypto market will be dumped in spring too. We still connected to traditionl market

Crypto could one way or another be connected to the traditional market, but when traditional institutions plunged when covid-19 shed it's milk teeth last year, Bitcoin didn't plunge, but had a year that took it to a new unprecedented ath, and it's still appreciating (just as Ethereum is); so I wouldn't be quick to make the assumption that there'll be a bubble for Bitcoin or the crypto market in spring, and btw, this is just one person's prediction, there is no certainty whatsoever that the stock market bubble is going to pop in spring.

Pito001

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In this case crypto market will be dumped in spring too. We still connected to traditionl market

exstasie

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Quote from: Hydrogen on January 08, 2021, 06:56:55 PM

Doom and gloom prediction could pan out IMO. The vaccine won't work against the new mutant strain of corona which recently emerged in the UK and new york. Lockdowns will continue to have devastating effects on global job markets and economies. Inflation in the US may be relatively contained within the banking sector but that could change with new stimulus bills being drafted.

Sure sounds like we're climbing the wall of worry to me!

Quote from: Hydrogen on January 08, 2021, 06:56:55 PM

The fed is been responsible for the majority of uptrending US stock movement since 2008. But their control has limitations.

I'm not sure it does.

kryptqnick

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I'm not surprised that he's saying the stock market bubble will explode. I was actually surprised that it did not happen in 2020, but many have predicted the global economic crisis falling to this year or close (even without and before the pandemic). They keep making the same mistakes, just like in 2008. And unfortunately, the highest losses will fall on the already disadvantaged people, whereas the rich ones will largely remain rich and will be bailed out with the help of taxpayers' money like it happened the last time...
Question is whether Bitcoin is actually a part of it. I think Bitcoin price is bound to explode at some point, but it might happen at a different time than the stock market.
As for the vaccine, for now it seems to cover the existing mutations AFAIK.

raidarksword

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Many people called crypto a bubble at first because it's just new and it's been a long journey for us for crypto to reached its heights of success today. Bitcoin proved doubters wrong that crypto market getting strong as the start of this year wherein many good things happened already.

Reid

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When I hear mutant, why is it X-Men which always pops out of my mind.
Too much fiction movies.

I doubt it won't work. There must be some tests that had been done before they put it in the market.
Also, people and investors will be buying and they don't want something without a quality check first especially for an expensive price.
This analyst could be using FUD for his self-profit later on.

odolvlobo

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There are many people that called the bubbles in 2000 and 2008 (even I saw and avoided both bubbles). Anyway, do all the people that called the 2000 and 2008 bubbles agree with this man? If not, then how do you know that he has the correct prediction?

Wexnident

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Well, it is for a fact imo that bubbles would certainly pop sooner or later. As for it being related to the rollout of the Covid vaccines, I hardly doubt it. Sides, even if a crash were to be seen, it would only be a natural result imo since in the first case, a bubble is supposed to pop and result in a crash, natural cause and effect I'd suppose.

Additionally, afaik, the vaccine was effective on the new strain of Covid though. But hey, it's still rather unknown what time would tell about the effects of the vaccine to the new strain. Only a limited number of tests were conducted from what I know, so there may actually be effects on the others.

Princejebs

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I find it annoying why most people dont like the idea of this vaccine. If you don't like the vaccine, why don't you ignore rather than this continue of conspiracy theory and unnecessary market speculation.
If scientist makes vaccine in the past and lots of people didn't die and all survived, I don't see no reason why we would fail at this.
There weren't many access to smart phones and exposure that's why this never stop. I have this hope that Corrona will be something of the past very soon and every country will soon go back to their normal ways.

ChrisPop

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I'm not sure about the vaccine not working against the new strains. I've just seen an article on The Guardian that says the Pfizer vaccine has been proven efficient on the UK and South African mutations. The testing took place on 20 subjects which is not very assuring in my opinion. With Trump making so much noise and creating instability, the stock market could indeed take a plunge. Personally, I haven't seen the United States in a so fragile condition.

The Sceptical Chymist

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Quote from: Hydrogen on January 08, 2021, 06:56:55 PM

Doom and gloom prediction could pan out IMO. The vaccine won't work against the new mutant strain of corona which recently emerged in the UK and new york.

The prediction certainly could turn out to be true, but I don't think coronavirus is going to be the ultimate reason. This bull market in stocks has been going on since the banking crisis of 2008/09, and the laws of financial gravity don't allow for any asset class to just keep going up and up indefinitely.

On the other hand, popping bubbles are invariably precipitated by some sort of catalyst, but my guess is that there's going to be some kind of increase in inflation and/or interest rates that kicks it all off (and the effects of COVID-19 won't help matters, either).

I wouldn't worry about new mutant strains and vaccine effectiveness, however. Science will keep fighting the virus regardless of what it does, and unless it suddenly turns out to be far deadlier than it is, I'm not going to fret about it.

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