But anyway, I get your point that when its safe and easy enough for the average person that'll be huge and hopefully once merchants find it easy to use they will start adding it as a payment method. LN will only take off once major merchants adopt it
Thanks for not having me explain to you all this
Though I can't agree about merchants as it is not about merchants at all. The consensus here and elsewhere seems to be that the adoption actually depends on merchants and their intention to accept cryptopayments. This, in my view, is a typical example of the so-called cart-and-horse problem, which boils down to confusing cause and effect. In this case specifically, adoption doesn't depend on merchants as it mostly, if not to say entirely, depends on consumers and their desire to spend their precious coins
Really, what merchant in his right mind would refuse to accept Bitcoin if there were such demand, i.e. people willing to pay in crypto? Indeed, there are some folks in the cryptospace ready to shell out and spend their coins without much ado, but if we cut the crap, most are here exclusively for fiat gains. They are using crypto as a vehicle for speculation, not as a means of payment. The bottom line is that LN on its own won't help merchants much because it is not them who should be helped in the first place
I disagree. LN will help merchants which is the main reason they will adopt it.
First off, only hard core bitcoiners are going to put coins on the LN if they can't spend those coins. There is zero reason to use the LN if you're just speculating and holding your coins. The reason to use LN is to spend your money, if merchant adoption isn't there 99% of Bitcoin owners won't bother putting coins on LN because there would be no reason to. LN will obviously continue to grow among people who are really into Bitcoin, and as more people get really into Bitcoin they will add to the LN, but your average person isn't going to get on there until they can use their profits to directly buy stuff on Amazon or whatever from the LN. Take me, for instance, I'm very much looking forward to the proliferation of LN use and the future of Bitcoin and I've bought and sold bitcoin since late-2013, but I won't bother trying out the LN until I can actually use it - which means there are some merchants I shop at who have LN payments set up. So I certainly wouldn't expect somebody who has some bitcoin but barely knows anything about it to put their bitcoin on LN until they see a LN/BTC button on Amazon and realize they can directly spend all the profit they've made.
LN will grow somewhat without big merchants, but mass adoption of it among the bitcoin community won't happen until many merchants come in. Because LN is not as good as Venmo for paying friends, and not as safe as normal Bitcoin wallets for storing Bitcoin, its major use case is spending money online in lieu of credit cards (as well as stuff like micropayments).
LN absolutely helps merchants because they get more money since they don't have to pay credit card fees. That makes a real difference to merchants. There is no one side of the transaction that LN should help and the other side it won't help. LN will help consumers spend their bitcoin without high fees and with instant processing, and it helps merchants achieve higher profits due to lack of fees, plus they don't have to wait for the money to move through the traditional financial system but instead they have access to the money immediately as long as they want to spend it on the LN, or however long some bitcoin to fiat conversion thing like bitpay or whatever takes to give them money (which i suppose would probably still take as long as legacy payments since it goes through the financial system).
Basically I think LN adoption will remain low but steadily growing until Amazon or a bunch of other significant merchants setup LN payments, at which point it can finally spread to everyone. You have to give people a reason to use LN, it just existing isn't reason enough.