Topic: The MatTheCat reverse indicator thread - page 2. (Read 3263 times)

It's funny how everyone sees the market being entirely controlled by a "they", meaning exchange owners or random Chinese billionaire, when the gold market movements now look identical to the Bitcoin market movements.  From a flat line to a random, big vertical line, a stop, then another.

When you see a seed battling and finally managing coming above ground, forming it's first leaves. Do you keep saying it is more likely to go back into the ground, or move up rapidly to the sun/moon?
We had the most nerve breaking part, now just enjoy watching it grow. Did you know that you can almost see a plant grow with the naked eye?

Thought this was an interesting point of view, not specific to bitcoin but is relevant to bitcoin I think.


To me this is saying, trade on longer timescales. On day trading you will be cleaned out.

Don't watch markets too much - its all program trading
Submitted by gldslv on January 9, 2016 - 2:29am.

It must be tough playing markets using traditional trading techniques now a days.   Trading against algos is like playing chess with a computer.  It  moves 100 times faster and given enough market power can create any perception it wants to paint. All the manipulator has to do is tell the computer to move a stock/bond/index prices in a method that paints a image to the trader that becomes financially attractive.  Once the money is drawn in they can tell it to go in reverse and clean the house/gather the chips.  

Its not the old days, in today's world, perception is managed by a few money centers.  Its all algos based in painting an image  of market movements. Not reality.   'Falling knives', 'gap filling' are algo responses these days and not traditonal human traders (forget investing) performing the activity.  Trading algos do not take into account any long term investment data points that any reasonable human investor instantly understands..

Do the algos adjust/compensate trading patterns on this type of information? Its really hard to quantify and therefore hard to introduce to the algo:

1) Debt/gdp ratios and the rate of debt growth between sovereigns relative to a stable unit of account?

2) rapidly changing geo-political relationships. Can't quantify that until you see an earnings/pricing  hit somewhere.

3) The meaning of 'money versus a currency' as it pertains to human purchasing power? Which to humans, I would think, is really important.

4) Undefined black swan events like country X accepting the yuan for trading or better yet announcements that  include new markets to sell/buy goods and services, therefore impacting the  future earnings power  of corporations that do not participate in those markets.

Its important to get the trend right, the algos react to capital and trade movement but I'm convinced that if China attacked Japan on a Monday, human traders would hit the sell button, the markets would drop and by Thursday,  by controlling/manipulating  the  VIX and futures on the indexes,  the algos would gap fill right back to almost normal. This type of event is a trend influencer that only humans can quantitatively 'feel' the impact on future market conditions.  The algo's lack of understanding for these minor and not so minor non-quantitative events is why we are experiencing more and more shock and awe.

Incoming $1600 $3200

-snip-

and then going right back down the way it came.

Hmm, Mat is long, those are basically the epitome of "weak hand" coins.  Now all we need is to print a bumper sticker that says, "If MatTheCat is long, what could go wrong?"

I've said this to you before Mat, but perhaps if you just held some btc for a couple of years in cold storage and got on with your life you might do better than churning back and forth based on nothing more than whimsy

Bitcoin is an assymetric bet which if it pays off will reward you handsomely. This forum is littered with accounts of young traders who knew best but in the end lost money with an asset that rose 1000's of % over a few short years. Trading is a zero sum game and you are not in the club.

Zoom out.

You just said it's not going to $500 then just posted a chart that shows it either getting up near there again or passing it.  We need a less ambiguous reverse indicator.

Reverse indicator from the gods confirmed.

highly doubtful 'they' will take it up to $500

We need a new reverse indicator update, where is he?

Almost as strong as the kwuckduck antipode indicator as well as the lesser known talks_cheap about-face indicator as well.