The Monte Carlo fallacy - page 3. | Bitcointalksearch.org

PytagoraZ

sr. member

Activity: 350

Merit: 343

Jolly? I think I've heard that name before. hmm

Quote from: ARTOIS on March 05, 2024, 11:19:42 AM

-What is your analysis about this trick?

If we talk about probability then a number that has not come out will have a higher chance in the next round, but we don't know when the number will come out and we need to wait for how many rounds. But I'm not too sure about tricks like that, especially since online gambling usually uses hashes, it would be more difficult to predict.

Like the Martiangel trick which increases the bet by half when we lose in the previous round, but there are times when we lose continuously and increase the bet continuously and if the balance is no longer enough, then in the end the balance will run out before the win comes.

I don't believe in tricks, I prefer to use feelings

Gozie51

hero member

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Vave.com - Crypto Casino

Personally I don't believe in such analysis. As it is called... fallacy, and so it won't work for everyone. I don't rely on the occurrence as such. If a dice produces the number 6, it doesn't mean the next number to produce is likely to be lower than it or if it has produced the frequency of 6, it may still repeat it or some number lesser. I only see luck to it and not probability or mathematical calculations.

However, I know that so many people still believe in some things that they use as a sign for profitable gambling or to indicate when the loses will come. But if this is the case that they are always accurate then we will have more gambling winners than people complaining of risk and loses in gambling .

Hispo

legendary

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Merit: 2025

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

I have had heard about it, but I did not know it was called the Monte Carlo fallacy. To me it is just the basic instinct of the human beings to try to find patterns and relations between the events which have occurred in the past and those which may occur in the future.
There is not much to say about it, I think. We just need to keep our heads cold and do not allow our greed to mix up with pattern recognition, otherwise, it would be easier for us to fall into following cues which are not actually even there while gambling.

The Monte Carlo fallacy is easy to counter if one take a look and study basic statistics, there is when one realizes how the perceptions we have on numbers resulting on a dice session or a roulette session do not have any scientific base.
There is not truly a difference between trying to find fake cues while gambling and using charms or magic to try to earn money off the casino. Roll Eyes

ARTOIS

full member

Activity: 308

Merit: 111

Hi community,

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy, is the mistaken belief that if a certain thing has happened more frequently than usual during the past, it is less likely to happen in the future (or vice versa), when it is otherwise proven that the probability of such events occurring is not It depends on what happened in the past. Such events, which are historically independent, are referred to as statistically independent. For example, the next dice roll is likely to be a six because the number of dice has recently been lower than the usual number of six.

Perhaps the majority of gamblers know this , especially the professionals and old-timers. Personally, I always fall into this trap.

-What is your analysis about this trick?

Topic: The Monte Carlo fallacy - page 3. (Read 420 times)