Finally, sure, this all seems very exciting, and it may seem like the egg is on my face, but I still think we're around the top of a giant bubble and that the price will crash very hard soon. It's just difficult to say exactly when, but I can't imagine the price staying above $100 for very long, and once it moves definitively back under $100, I expect a very long correction.
The overall price of bitcoins depends on its use. I have seen a few different analysis that put the price supported by transactions (buying/selling goods and services, simple remittances, etc) at around 10 USD. Speculation without any actual backing economy would have the price bubble up and go back down to under 0.01 USD. People using BTC as long-term savings, however, the price just depends on how much people want to save in bitcoin, so the total money supply could go up at least another couple orders of magnitude.
I suspect that most of the current rise has been driven by speculation, however, there have been people putting their capital into bitcoin, and people running bitcoin based business leaving their earnings in bitcoin. So while I believe the price
can go down quite a bit from where it is at, it does not
have to go down. It just depends on if the savers and earners can get their money into bitcoin as fast as the speculators are pulling out.
