The new bearwhale: US Marshals - page 3.

fewcoins

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Quote from: traderCJ on December 04, 2014, 12:31:48 AM

There's really no difference between this and institutional bulk purchases of commodities, like gold for instance. When the Chinese government imports gold, the spot price of gold is only indirectly affected. You don't see immediate spikes in the paper market. We can debate this all night, but I'm just saying that there is a very low probability that this coin auction will result in any noticeable change in price. It will come and go without much fanfare.

So you're saying this stabilization will continue even after the winners are announced Dec 5th?

traderCJ

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Activity: 280

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There's really no difference between this and institutional bulk purchases of commodities, like gold for instance. When the Chinese government imports gold, the spot price of gold is only indirectly affected. You don't see immediate spikes in the paper market. We can debate this all night, but I'm just saying that there is a very low probability that this coin auction will result in any noticeable change in price. It will come and go without much fanfare.

fewcoins

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Quote from: Torque on December 03, 2014, 10:34:00 PM

Quote from: fewcoins on December 03, 2014, 09:19:39 PM

Quote from: traderCJ on December 03, 2014, 02:53:27 PM

If the purchase is made off-exchange, how exactly would this auction directly affect the market? It's not like the buyer is going to turn around immediately and dump the coins he just bought.

Says who??? This is not a stock market IPO with a lock out period. If they are both below market value why wouldn't they immediately be dumped?? They could always re buy at the lower price that comes from the pandemonium they cause. WTF makes you so sure they won't dump in a full unregulated market?

It didn't happen with Tim Draper. Won't happen this time either.

Quit being a douche.

Actually after he bought all the coins (like an idiot) he is in the red for millions of dollars... Fuck people like that trying to get rich off us retail investors.

Quit day dreaming. Wake up.

Torque

legendary

Activity: 3710

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Quote from: fewcoins on December 03, 2014, 09:19:39 PM

Quote from: traderCJ on December 03, 2014, 02:53:27 PM

If the purchase is made off-exchange, how exactly would this auction directly affect the market? It's not like the buyer is going to turn around immediately and dump the coins he just bought.

Says who??? This is not a stock market IPO with a lock out period. If they are both below market value why wouldn't they immediately be dumped?? They could always re buy at the lower price that comes from the pandemonium they cause. WTF makes you so sure they won't dump in a full unregulated market?

It didn't happen with Tim Draper. Won't happen this time either.

Quit being a douche.

fewcoins

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Activity: 126

Merit: 100

Quote from: traderCJ on December 03, 2014, 02:53:27 PM

If the purchase is made off-exchange, how exactly would this auction directly affect the market? It's not like the buyer is going to turn around immediately and dump the coins he just bought.

Says who??? This is not a stock market IPO with a lock out period. If they are both below market value why wouldn't they immediately be dumped?? They could always re buy at the lower price that comes from the pandemonium they cause. WTF makes you so sure they won't dump in a full unregulated market?

NotLambchop

sr. member

Activity: 378

Merit: 254

Quote from: JLynn171 on December 03, 2014, 08:10:23 PM

I wish anonymous would step in and put in all their efforts combined to one way or another sabotage the auction and take hold of the bitcoin

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Code:

VW5lbmNyeXB0ZWQgY29tbXVuaWNhdGlvbiB1bmFkdmlzYWJsZSBvdmVyIGNsZWFybmV0LCBKTHltbTE3MS4gIFByb2NlZWQgdG8gMTI3LjAuMC4xOjEzMzcgc3dpdGNoaW5nIHRvIFNIQTI1NiBlbmNsa2lobGtkciB1IHc4NjUgcTJ0NDAvICBraWhoZ3JmZjk5OCA4NzRpamhsZHZraCA3NnRlciBramtqZmhndWV5ciBram52dmtzamh2ZyByeCB5c2cgdmJrbmZqdmJram4gOik=

~XXpeachXXpizza276

JLynn171

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I wish anonymous would step in and put in all their efforts combined to one way or another sabotage the auction and take hold of the bitcoin

cbeast

donator

Activity: 1736

Merit: 1014

Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

Quote from: cbeast on December 03, 2014, 07:20:00 PM

I wonder how much the investor syndicates are willing to bet on the upcoming auction? Would a group of smaller investors bid higher than single investor?

To answer my own question, group-think will cause a group of investors to be too conservative.

solex

legendary

Activity: 1078

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100 satoshis -> ISO code

Quote from: podyx on December 03, 2014, 07:39:46 PM

So today's the day ha?

When do we find out about it?

Thursday 8am EST it starts and drags on for 6 hours, but they won't tell anyone the results except the winning bidders.

podyx

legendary

Activity: 2338

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So today's the day ha?

When do we find out about it?

cbeast

donator

Activity: 1736

Merit: 1014

Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

I wonder how much the investor syndicates are willing to bet on the upcoming auction? Would a group of smaller investors bid higher than single investor?

galbros

legendary

Activity: 1022

Merit: 1000

I was surprised at the results of the last auction. I figured with so many coins hitting the market at once it would be bound to result in the coins selling at a discount. It turned out that Draper really wanted to get into bitcoin in a big way and saw the auction as a way to buy a lot of them at a discount to what the market would have been if he'd bought them on the open market.

I doubt we'll get that lucky again, especially since the price has dropped a fair amount since his purchase. Still he was quoted in the Wall Street Journal yesterday saying in three years a bitcoin will be worth 10,000 USD, so maybe he'll double down!

Good Luck!

smoothie

legendary

Activity: 2492

Merit: 1473

LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: traderCJ on December 03, 2014, 02:53:27 PM

If the purchase is made off-exchange, how exactly would this auction directly affect the market? It's not like the buyer is going to turn around immediately and dump the coins he just bought.

+1

Look at all the new comers panicking prior to the 50k BTC auction.

sniveling

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Activity: 719

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Quote from: NotLambchop on December 03, 2014, 05:01:50 PM

Quote from: sniveling on December 03, 2014, 04:47:11 PM

Quote from: NotLambchop on December 03, 2014, 03:19:59 PM

Quote from: traderCJ on December 03, 2014, 02:53:27 PM

If the purchase is made off-exchange, how exactly would this auction directly affect the market? It's not like the buyer is going to turn around immediately and dump the coins he just bought.

Why not?

The last auction's leaked list of potential bidders included people like Fred Ehrsam, co-founder, Coinbase. As coinbase has run out of bitcoins in the past he would be likely to want the silkroad bitcoins as a contingency backup in case the same thing happens again.

http://www.coindesk.com/list-possible-silk-road-bitcoin-bidders-allegedly-leaked-us-marshals/

The leaked list is not a list of bidders, but "... a list of some of the individuals who have asked a question or questions about the pending bitcoin auction." Not that it matters much--as I understand it, there's no fee to bid, merely a security deposit. In other words, the bidders risk nothing--no reason not to place a low bid on the off-chance of winning.

I'm not suggesting that it is metaphysically impossible for the winning bids to be above market price, simply that, in my opinion, it's improbable. This shouldn't preclude your making your own conclusions Undecided

I'm just saying that even if the winning bids are well below market price the winners might have good reasons not to dump. The co-founder of Coinbase is a good example of someone who might hold.

NotLambchop

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Activity: 378

Merit: 254

Quote from: sniveling on December 03, 2014, 04:47:11 PM

Quote from: NotLambchop on December 03, 2014, 03:19:59 PM

Quote from: traderCJ on December 03, 2014, 02:53:27 PM

If the purchase is made off-exchange, how exactly would this auction directly affect the market? It's not like the buyer is going to turn around immediately and dump the coins he just bought.

Why not?

The last auction's leaked list of potential bidders included people like Fred Ehrsam, co-founder, Coinbase. As coinbase has run out of bitcoins in the past he would be likely to want the silkroad bitcoins as a contingency backup in case the same thing happens again.

http://www.coindesk.com/list-possible-silk-road-bitcoin-bidders-allegedly-leaked-us-marshals/

The leaked list is not a list of bidders, but "... a list of some of the individuals who have asked a question or questions about the pending bitcoin auction." Not that it matters much--as I understand it, there's no fee to bid, merely a security deposit. In other words, the bidders risk nothing--no reason not to place a low bid on the off-chance of winning.

I'm not suggesting that it is metaphysically impossible for the winning bids to be above market price, simply that, in my opinion, it's improbable. This shouldn't preclude your making your own conclusions Undecided

sniveling

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Activity: 719

Merit: 250

Quote from: NotLambchop on December 03, 2014, 03:19:59 PM

Quote from: traderCJ on December 03, 2014, 02:53:27 PM

If the purchase is made off-exchange, how exactly would this auction directly affect the market? It's not like the buyer is going to turn around immediately and dump the coins he just bought.

Why not?

The last auction's leaked list of potential bidders included people like Fred Ehrsam, co-founder, Coinbase. As coinbase has run out of bitcoins in the past he would be likely to want the silkroad bitcoins as a contingency backup in case the same thing happens again.

http://www.coindesk.com/list-possible-silk-road-bitcoin-bidders-allegedly-leaked-us-marshals/

Kupsi

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Activity: 1193

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9.9.2012: I predict that single digits... <- FAIL

Quote from: NotLambchop on December 03, 2014, 04:09:39 PM

Quote from: traderCJ on December 03, 2014, 04:00:46 PM

Quote from: NotLambchop on December 03, 2014, 03:19:59 PM

Quote from: traderCJ on December 03, 2014, 02:53:27 PM

If the purchase is made off-exchange, how exactly would this auction directly affect the market? It's not like the buyer is going to turn around immediately and dump the coins he just bought.

Why not?

So you're suggesting that the coins will auction for less than market value, taking slippage into account?

Slippage works both ways, buying and selling. To avoid arguing the obvious, let's just say I'm in the majority.

see: http://www.coindesk.com/citi-ross-ulbricht-bitcoins-likely-sell-discount-usms-auction/
and: http://www.coindesk.com/usual-suspects-return-bid-latest-us-marshals-bitcoin-auction/

Or they just try to talk the price down...

NotLambchop

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Activity: 378

Merit: 254

Quote from: traderCJ on December 03, 2014, 04:00:46 PM

Quote from: NotLambchop on December 03, 2014, 03:19:59 PM

Quote from: traderCJ on December 03, 2014, 02:53:27 PM

If the purchase is made off-exchange, how exactly would this auction directly affect the market? It's not like the buyer is going to turn around immediately and dump the coins he just bought.

Why not?

So you're suggesting that the coins will auction for less than market value, taking slippage into account?

Slippage works both ways, buying and selling. To avoid arguing the obvious, let's just say I'm in the majority.

see: http://www.coindesk.com/citi-ross-ulbricht-bitcoins-likely-sell-discount-usms-auction/
and: http://www.coindesk.com/usual-suspects-return-bid-latest-us-marshals-bitcoin-auction/

traderCJ

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Activity: 280

Merit: 250

Quote from: NotLambchop on December 03, 2014, 03:19:59 PM

Quote from: traderCJ on December 03, 2014, 02:53:27 PM

If the purchase is made off-exchange, how exactly would this auction directly affect the market? It's not like the buyer is going to turn around immediately and dump the coins he just bought.

Why not?

So you're suggesting that the coins will auction for less than market value, taking slippage into account?

NotLambchop

sr. member

Activity: 378

Merit: 254

Quote from: traderCJ on December 03, 2014, 02:53:27 PM

If the purchase is made off-exchange, how exactly would this auction directly affect the market? It's not like the buyer is going to turn around immediately and dump the coins he just bought.

Why not?

Topic: The new bearwhale: US Marshals - page 3. (Read 5555 times)