Topic: The next bubble will be sooner and bigger than you think (Read 5056 times)

First stage was "hopeful" money, fiat being poured into bitcoin through miners and bubbles.
Current stage is Ouroboros, a serpent eating its own tail, bitcoin being consumed to further bitcoin,
What is the next stage going to be? That is the question

It's a battle between hot air and genuine use. Price could remain fussy for a while.

Agree. Currently, there is too much selling pressure from mining, people starting Bitcoin businesses, selling Bitcoins to fund them and transactions through Bitpay and the like. Absent some event like a Dollar crash or a gold short squeeze, Bitcoin will surge when these businesses start to generate revenue and/or block reward is halved again.

or $25 according to this chart

really, 50 K ? That would be great offcorse.

Based on this chart: https://www.tradingview.com/v/mbeChoQL/

We could be seeing over 50k next year.

Nonsense, all numbers should be pulled from one's ass.

This figure is based on volume from Chinese exchanges with no trading fees.  There is no cost to have two accounts and fake volume.

When China is done playing around with BABA, the money will naturally flow back to the Chinese BTC markets, driving the price up.

That doesn't seem very "soon" yokosan (to quote the title of the thread). Btw, where were you for the 9.5 months prior to this thread? Have you just had a baby? lol

The holders int he West cause BTC to have a holding price and this enable the users in the East to use it to transfer value.

Could we have any predictions about the size and time of occurrence of that bubble? Just posting this without providing further guesses is meeeh. The fun in speculation comes from pulling out some numbers out of your hat!

70% of trade....
Maybe the holders are in other countries. 

Up to 70% trade happens in China...Bitcoin is not going anywhere anytime unless it's favorable to them.

it is in the making right now!

Fair enough. I don't think we are too far apart in points of view actually.

I agree the market is weak. Need some staunch buying to propel things higher

I think anyone who thinks they can troll the market down by posting on this forum is living in a fantasy world.

I've been through 2 bubbles. I took my initial investment, and then some, out long, long ago. Recognize that HODLers are not the only ones who profited from a 5-year bull market.

I brought out the term "bagholder" because yet another bull was calling bear predictions of late "failed predictions". That's straight up bagholder talk. I don't give a shit if you're making money or losing it. There's nothing wrong with holding a long term position. Just don't be irrational about it and literally lie to yourself about the past (not you, but the poster I originally responded to). Clearly, the bears have prevailed over the past few months and the biggest failures were the "bubble predictions" we have seen ALL YEAR LONG.

If I came off inflammatory after that, it's because of this line -- "I'm not sure if you realise that most bitcoin holders are actually sitting on massive unrealised % gains? LOL." I am not confident that this is true (for the reasons stated earlier), and that's the same sort of talk that made so many people throw risk management into the wind.

I honestly don't give a shit if the market continues to trend down or not. But I need bulls to show strength to consider buying again. They've shown nothing but massive weakness on every attempt.

We'll see. This forum is littered with traders like yourself who flit in and out of the market (Matthecat). The majority of course lose money (another form of bagholder I suppose) in spite of an exponentially rising price.

I hope you will make sensible trades and my beat my undoubtedly suboptimal buy and hold strategy. I am still up just under %300 overall at the current price as i bought most of my position last march/april (oh to have bought in just a few months earlier!). Do i want to see the price fall lower? No. Am i emotional about it? Not really. Just ambivalent to be honest as I have held the position for so long now. I have been trickling a few coins a month in the last few months as I feel risk wise this is a reasonably good entry and the ftse seems a bit toppy.

I suppose it is all about risk. You made a good trade if you can get back in lower and ride the price upwards. I have learnt that timing the market is very difficult at the time, but obvious looking backwards. How do you know when the uptrend has resumed? The price could break downwards and move through the 3xx low earlier this year. It moved back from 680 down to where we are now on good news alone! But it could just as easily move upwards over a few days (with or without news) and break out, in the process confirming the 3xx spike down this year as the bottom.

Anyway, I would say that using terms like 'year of the bagholder', 'butthurt' etc are deliberately inflammatory and aimed to create an emotional response in recent buyers, which of course might incite them to sell. But I am sure being out of the game you wouldn't be trying to manipulate trusting newbies into dumping so you can get back in lower? Maybe I am too cynical..

Before bubble starts weak hands will be shaken hard and flee in despair. I won't be surprised to see sub $400 for a moment prior to take off.

I'd be curious to see the distribution data to support that. My feeling is more so that bitcoin wealth is incredibly concentrated, so this is much less true than you think. Either way, this is more so directed at the sentiment on this forum (for the past 8 months) that we're headed for another bubble, and therefore that buying into a long term bear market was advisable. All year long, huge distribution -- just more and more bagholders being created. It's fine -- there is a good chance bitcoin will succeed long term. But there's no reason to get so butthurt over a term that simply means "sitting on unrealized loss." I hate to break it to you, but 2014 was supposed to be the year of the bitcoin. But it turned out to be the year of the bagholder.

Thanks for the "good luck." Bitcoin has to go up $130 before I start "losing coins." So I can bide my time, thanks. You sound a bit emotional, to be honest.