How far is this from being a possible scenario for 2015?
The bottom is in. After a huge volume capitulation the bears cannot push the price down any lower - the invisible selling hand has stopped selling.
VC funding continues to pour into the space ignoring the bitcoin price entirely (75,000,000 USD in coinbase today including investment from US banking partners). The reason for banks investing is they know that the Bitlicense (due to be released in days) is positive for bitcoin. Once bitlicense is released and major players are positioned the ETF will go live shortly after, resulting in an avalanche of investment capital entering the space.
The entire 'crash' of inexplicable selling (in a sea of positive fundamentals) has been major players manipulating the market to buy up as many coins as possible for the next bull run.
They are now positioned and with short interest near ATH's still and long interest languishing at levels not seen for almost a year, it is time to push the price back upwards. This will squeeze the only gamblers who aren't in on the move - retail shorters - who are all sure we will see sub $100 coins. The squeeze will signal the start of the next bull run and drive the price back upwards towards 500 dollars where it will stabilise temporarily.
Once the ETF is announced the price will begin moving upwards rapidly and draw in institutional investors and joe public alike. Online companies will begin offering a discount to buy goods online with bitcoin, creating a persistent use case for widespread adoption of the coin. The price will break 1000 dollars and keep moving upwards resulting in a mania of the like not seen since 2013.
Hopefully
EDIT: Previous low 166.45, current price 248.29
EDIT2: Added the historic btc short swap data..
EDIT3: Added bitcoins day destroyed to show that coins arent really moving despite the price weakness. This is new coins on the move!
EDIT4: Can you see a high volume capitulation event? We thought it was October when the price hit 274 but the move in January was huge..
EDIT5: Added in the btc rich list..no selling from whales, this has all been new coins and leverage..
