It's not because people are "smarter and more mature." We will definitely see another parabolic rise eventually, it's just too soon. It's only been a few months since the bottom of the bear market.
At this point in 2015, we were still more than a year away from the parabolic phase of the bull market. The same is probably true now. The chart probably won't go vertical again until we make a new ATH at $20K. My guess is, that'll happen some months after the halving next year.
When going by propertion to ath with the 4 year cycles, we are right now about $500 in May 2015 - a bit under half of the previous ath. This is quite a bit higher than it was in May 2015, so I expect the run up over the next couple years to be more gradual and steady, with a less dramatic crash following the next ath. We may drop back into the $6ks over the summer and finish the year around $10k, this scenario would be pretty similar to how 2015 went.
It's too early for me to speculate much yet on long term price trajectory but I'm looking for a similar scenario for 2019. If we're following 2015 then we haven't seen the August crash yet. After a correction and recovery like that, I'll be more confident about making long term projections, especially time-based ones.
I just know it will look somewhat different than previous cycles (history rhymes but never repeats), and it already does like quite different than 2015. I also know the post-bear consolidation should take quite a bit of time. It looks hyper bullish right now so people think we're going to $20K next month, but after we correct downwards for a few months that sentiment will be destroyed, and a sideways 2019 will look a lot more reasonable.