the next checkpoint $13,800 | Bitcointalksearch.org

btc_angela

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Quote from: Macadonian on August 02, 2021, 02:12:43 PM

Quote from: thecodebear on July 29, 2021, 07:13:10 PM

$30,000s is pretty clearly the bottom range. Down to 200wma only happens after huge blow-off tops, which didn't happen this year, so there is no need to worry about such low prices. $30k is the bottom as we have seen from the ranging the past two months and Bitcoin will likely start moving back up toward ATH soon, either in the next few days or in the month or two.

What is the your reasoning that 30,000 is "clearly" the bottom range? There is no data suggesting that this is prediction you made is correct and I am interested in what you think is suggesting it?

I will speculate that obviously, after reaching as low as $28k, the price didn't go further down, but instead it has recovered to $30k'ish for sometime and then to $40k, then go back to $38k then to $42k. So there's a lot of movement after the dip. And it still continues this pattern as the price goes below $40k again. There might be not data suggesting that we have hit the lowest low, but if you will base on the swing, chances are the bottom has been hit in my opinion.

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Quote from: freedomgo on July 30, 2021, 06:58:59 AM

Quote from: ethereumhunter on July 29, 2021, 10:41:21 PM

But if the next lowest price is at $13,800, I wonder what will happen when the price starts going down because I think some people will panic seeing the price jump down.

You know what will happen, people will panic and the smart investors will buy.

We've been in that kind of situation many times, bitcoin is sometimes too bearish that we thought it will not survive again, but still, it pumps and even makes a new ATH, so never lose your trust in bitcoin, it will look like a dead for some time but it always bounces back and reward those who trust.

I doubt that we are going to see a price that low not only because smart investors will buy as soon as the price of bitcoin is going down, we also need to take into account institutional investors that bought for a price way higher than that, it is better for them over the long term to buy above their current average buying price than to let the price to slip below those levels as they will lose a lot more money if they allowed bitcoin to go that low.

crzy

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Quote from: Macadonian on August 02, 2021, 02:12:43 PM

Quote from: thecodebear on July 29, 2021, 07:13:10 PM

$30,000s is pretty clearly the bottom range. Down to 200wma only happens after huge blow-off tops, which didn't happen this year, so there is no need to worry about such low prices. $30k is the bottom as we have seen from the ranging the past two months and Bitcoin will likely start moving back up toward ATH soon, either in the next few days or in the month or two.

What is the your reasoning that 30,000 is "clearly" the bottom range? There is no data suggesting that this is prediction you made is correct and I am interested in what you think is suggesting it?

Probably maybe because we stop from that price and didn’t even try to go bottom on that price level, that could be considered as the strong support level and the price of Bitcoin right now tells everything that bottom was already hit. I don’t think Bitcoin will hit the price of below $20k again, though many buyers would love to see that price but the market itself wont allow that for sure.

Macadonian

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Quote from: thecodebear on July 29, 2021, 07:13:10 PM

$30,000s is pretty clearly the bottom range. Down to 200wma only happens after huge blow-off tops, which didn't happen this year, so there is no need to worry about such low prices. $30k is the bottom as we have seen from the ranging the past two months and Bitcoin will likely start moving back up toward ATH soon, either in the next few days or in the month or two.

What is the your reasoning that 30,000 is "clearly" the bottom range? There is no data suggesting that this is prediction you made is correct and I am interested in what you think is suggesting it?

ene1980

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Remember this : bullish cycle is still here and if you want to buy btc below $13k it will not happen anytime soon. Strong support is at $30k and after this pump we are more like heading up to $100k or above $130k. Super cycle is not end guys. If you short especialy future with 5x margin you will be lost.

The bullish cycle is still on and so is the reason we are seeing the price moving in a price range for months after the market went on to hit a new all time high and considering how we look at the market valuation in the past we need to understand that we rallied a lot much before than we usually does after every halving and it is funny to see that people are loosing their mind when the price is trading around $30k.

@OP if you are waiting for the market to settle down at $13k then you might need to wait for a much longer time for that to happen.

justdimin

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Quote from: TimeTeller on August 02, 2021, 01:12:47 PM

Would be very hard to get to the level of $13k again. I believe we already surpassed that.
Though in this market, we don't know what will happen next.
But for now, forget that price level as you may not see that again for very long time.
So just adjust your strategies and act what is the current situation in the market.
If you will wait for that level before you do something, I don't think it would be good for your crypto portfolio.

I have to say I do believe that bitcoin will go up, maybe in a month or maybe in a year but I do not get excited about the smaller price changes, because that usually means that there is a chance I could be tricked with someone making some manipulation. These are not the amount of changes that shows the long term, it is actually quite short term that we should not be focusing on the smaller movements in case they are just manipulations.

There is a good chance that some rich guy may have bought a lot of bitcoins in few markets increasing the price, and when others take that over and keep increasing it, then that rich guy could end up selling it all and dropping it (throw in a short position for fun on top of that) and that is why smaller movements do not make me excited anymore, just more careful.

TimeTeller

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Quote from: adaseb on August 01, 2021, 11:07:44 PM

This thread was created on July 21th and on that day is when we traded below $30K for around 24 hours or so. This is proof that there are way too many emotional people out there in these markets. We were at range lows and people were calling for $13K and going short. Now we are at range highs ($42K) and people are calling for ATH.

Since its still Summer. There is a good chance that this range might follow price action for the next month. The funding is a little negative so some people already are thinking $42K was the local top and we might revisit $30K again in the next few weeks.

And then again, people will be making more threads about how "next checkpoint $10K" or so.

Would be very hard to get to the level of $13k again. I believe we already surpassed that.
Though in this market, we don't know what will happen next.
But for now, forget that price level as you may not see that again for very long time.
So just adjust your strategies and act what is the current situation in the market.
If you will wait for that level before you do something, I don't think it would be good for your crypto portfolio.

adaseb

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This thread was created on July 21th and on that day is when we traded below $30K for around 24 hours or so. This is proof that there are way too many emotional people out there in these markets. We were at range lows and people were calling for $13K and going short. Now we are at range highs ($42K) and people are calling for ATH.

Since its still Summer. There is a good chance that this range might follow price action for the next month. The funding is a little negative so some people already are thinking $42K was the local top and we might revisit $30K again in the next few weeks.

And then again, people will be making more threads about how "next checkpoint $10K" or so.

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Quote from: Raflesia on August 01, 2021, 10:33:25 AM

Quote from: ethereumhunter on August 01, 2021, 08:41:48 AM

Quote from: freedomgo on July 30, 2021, 06:58:59 AM

Quote from: ethereumhunter on July 29, 2021, 10:41:21 PM

But if the next lowest price is at $13,800, I wonder what will happen when the price starts going down because I think some people will panic seeing the price jump down.

You know what will happen, people will panic and the smart investors will buy.

We've been in that kind of situation many times, bitcoin is sometimes too bearish that we thought it will not survive again, but still, it pumps and even makes a new ATH, so never lose your trust in bitcoin, it will look like a dead for some time but it always bounces back and reward those who trust.

Indeed. People will panic. They will sell fast without thinking about how if the price bounce after reach that price.

Maybe those people need to believe in bitcoin so they do not have any worry about moving the bitcoin price. If they can do that, I am sure wherever bitcoin price moves, they will not panic and can even use that moment to buy back more bitcoin. Managing their emotions will also be necessary because that is one of many keys to becoming good investors or traders.

Smart investors will know how to deal with this better even in times of decline they come to buy more and know that bitcoin is bound to go up like everyone so have a strong determination about bitcoin and believe higher.

But sometimes people are still affected by FOMO and other FUDs, so that bitcoin moves towards a movement, there is still a lot of speculation and too much thinking about what is risky even though this is a reason why bitcoin can come back again, so you have to be mentally prepared sometimes when you see the market a little red, investors who not mentally strong will be a little anxious.

The hard thing for the common investor is that they already see the bad news from out there, which makes them panic. Some investors can not think clearly if they get that and I think they really need to control themselves and not force themselves always to check the market moves.

Good investors will always have the ability to calm down every time the market moves in the opposite direction than he wants and always have a solution to solve the bad situation. Those investors will not be affected by FOMO and other FUDs, instead using that for their benefit.

Raflesia

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Quote from: ethereumhunter on August 01, 2021, 08:41:48 AM

Quote from: freedomgo on July 30, 2021, 06:58:59 AM

Quote from: ethereumhunter on July 29, 2021, 10:41:21 PM

But if the next lowest price is at $13,800, I wonder what will happen when the price starts going down because I think some people will panic seeing the price jump down.

You know what will happen, people will panic and the smart investors will buy.

We've been in that kind of situation many times, bitcoin is sometimes too bearish that we thought it will not survive again, but still, it pumps and even makes a new ATH, so never lose your trust in bitcoin, it will look like a dead for some time but it always bounces back and reward those who trust.

Indeed. People will panic. They will sell fast without thinking about how if the price bounce after reach that price.

Maybe those people need to believe in bitcoin so they do not have any worry about moving the bitcoin price. If they can do that, I am sure wherever bitcoin price moves, they will not panic and can even use that moment to buy back more bitcoin. Managing their emotions will also be necessary because that is one of many keys to becoming good investors or traders.

Smart investors will know how to deal with this better even in times of decline they come to buy more and know that bitcoin is bound to go up like everyone so have a strong determination about bitcoin and believe higher.

But sometimes people are still affected by FOMO and other FUDs, so that bitcoin moves towards a movement, there is still a lot of speculation and too much thinking about what is risky even though this is a reason why bitcoin can come back again, so you have to be mentally prepared sometimes when you see the market a little red, investors who not mentally strong will be a little anxious.

ethereumhunter

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Quote from: freedomgo on July 30, 2021, 06:58:59 AM

Quote from: ethereumhunter on July 29, 2021, 10:41:21 PM

But if the next lowest price is at $13,800, I wonder what will happen when the price starts going down because I think some people will panic seeing the price jump down.

You know what will happen, people will panic and the smart investors will buy.

We've been in that kind of situation many times, bitcoin is sometimes too bearish that we thought it will not survive again, but still, it pumps and even makes a new ATH, so never lose your trust in bitcoin, it will look like a dead for some time but it always bounces back and reward those who trust.

Indeed. People will panic. They will sell fast without thinking about how if the price bounce after reach that price.

Maybe those people need to believe in bitcoin so they do not have any worry about moving the bitcoin price. If they can do that, I am sure wherever bitcoin price moves, they will not panic and can even use that moment to buy back more bitcoin. Managing their emotions will also be necessary because that is one of many keys to becoming good investors or traders.

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Quote from: ethereumhunter on July 29, 2021, 10:41:21 PM

But if the next lowest price is at $13,800, I wonder what will happen when the price starts going down because I think some people will panic seeing the price jump down.

You know what will happen, people will panic and the smart investors will buy.

We've been in that kind of situation many times, bitcoin is sometimes too bearish that we thought it will not survive again, but still, it pumps and even makes a new ATH, so never lose your trust in bitcoin, it will look like a dead for some time but it always bounces back and reward those who trust.

ethereumhunter

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Quote from: slowlyslowly on July 21, 2021, 12:11:08 AM

So I think bitcoin at its current price ($29,000 ish) is great buying but if people spread their buying out a little over time (next few months?) I think they will benefit even more.

That will be a good decision if people can do that as they will have a chance to buy bitcoin at every lower price and not selling if the price does not increase more than $1,000 or just hold for a long time. But that will depend on themselves and we can not force them to follow what we suggest because they will have their plan and know what they need to do.

But I admit that $29,000 is the best price to buy bitcoin so far, but it seems we will not see that price again. If the bitcoin price can rise to more than $64k, the lowest price of bitcoin can be anywhere, so it could be at $30,000-$40,000 range price. But if the next lowest price is at $13,800, I wonder what will happen when the price starts going down because I think some people will panic seeing the price jump down.

Slow death

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I had to look for this thread, well we are already above $40,000 and as you can see:

the next checkpoint it will be more than $60,000 in the next few months or years. for those who are dreaming of the price dropping below $20,000 you should wake up and forget about that dream because it is clear that the price of bitcoin will no longer drop below $20,000. the $20,000 price became equal to the $3000 price that when the price was $10,000 people kept saying it would fall below $3000 and the $3000 price proved to be very strong support and at no time was it broken after bitcoin price dropped from $20,000 to $3100

STT

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Its not clear till its confirmed on every time frame, trading, daily bars, weekly and we have to consider the largest time frames as somehow Bitcoin also adheres to something as large as 200 week averages or so it seems in examining the chart since we began. Perhaps it really is a commodity based market as some commodities take a decade to form a stable price due to the cost of mining, exploration and so on. Thats surprising for a tech instrument and commodity but if BTC is part of macro economics and references dynamics dating back the 1970's or earlier then I can believe it possible.
Iam quite convinced BTC is far longer term in its waves and tides while moving then we recognize. By all that I mean to say 30k is not a hard limit, its in pencil on this chart at best.

thecodebear

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$30,000s is pretty clearly the bottom range. Down to 200wma only happens after huge blow-off tops, which didn't happen this year, so there is no need to worry about such low prices. $30k is the bottom as we have seen from the ranging the past two months and Bitcoin will likely start moving back up toward ATH soon, either in the next few days or in the month or two.

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Quote from: magneto on July 25, 2021, 08:12:58 PM

Great piece of analysis. And we are currently seeing the market rebounding.

Agreed, the analysis is precise. Someone who have followed him and has invested have taken the profit through the market re-bounce.

Quote from: magneto on July 25, 2021, 08:12:58 PM

I would actually still Dollar Cost Average into the market, even with the recent bullishness. These prices are low relative to the ATH and there is a high likelihood that come the next halving, these prices will be seen as cheap.

Yes, by the next halving the price goes to be cheap if we're into continued investing based on the dollar cost averaging. Till now the halving events have triggered the price increase, maybe at the time of halving there is no big growth.

Quote from: magneto on July 25, 2021, 08:12:58 PM

The support at $30k seems to be robust, and the trend reversal seems well under way. While I do still expect some dips in the short run, dollar cost averaging as a strategy that allows you to ride out these dips and benefit from them through lowering your cost basis.

The market above $30k happened in a short and now it is in the urge to cross $40k. Those who had the choice of dollar cost averaging could've got at a better price. The trend reversal has happened, following this will be the dips.

South Park

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Quote from: ReiMomo on July 25, 2021, 12:39:25 PM

Quote from: slowlyslowly on July 21, 2021, 12:11:08 AM

To me this $12,000-$29,000 is the same opportunity we were all afforded when bitcoin was last "cheap " at about $250 in June 2015 and about $3,300 in February 2019.

I am one among who felt "I should have bought bitcoin or saved the bitcoin I earned in 2016 when it was around $400 and in 2019 when BTC was around $4k to $5k". I almost had 2 btc from earnings without investing on it. Current situation makes me feel the same but would let it go down to $20k to $25k. So I feel, this is the last opportunity one can opt more bitcoin.

There are probably a lot of people like that but since you cannot change what it happened then it does not matter, what matters is to try to get bitcoin for a relatively low price, just a week ago you could have gotten bitcoin for a price below 30k and it is fair to wonder if that is going to be the last time this is going to happen as the price is recovering once again and now there is a battle among the bulls and the bears to see if the price of bitcoin goes past the 40k mark.

freedomgo

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I always find it interesting when someone has this kind of analysis, in a bullish market, we usually see a bullish analysis and now even if the market is correcting, we still see more bullish predictions which for me is not anymore realistic. So for me, I believe that we might see that price as it's easy for bitcoin to fall when people start to panic.

magneto

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Great piece of analysis. And we are currently seeing the market rebounding.

I would actually still Dollar Cost Average into the market, even with the recent bullishness. These prices are low relative to the ATH and there is a high likelihood that come the next halving, these prices will be seen as cheap.

The support at $30k seems to be robust, and the trend reversal seems well under way. While I do still expect some dips in the short run, dollar cost averaging as a strategy that allows you to ride out these dips and benefit from them through lowering your cost basis.

Topic: the next checkpoint $13,800 (Read 432 times)