The next difficulty level will make mining unprofitable. - page 3.

w128

newbie

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Quote from: bulanula on May 25, 2011, 12:11:25 PM

No these OCN kiddos are not insane. They will run at a loss because their mommy+daddy are paying for their gaming rigs and all that. Just see how many people give free cpu time to NSA botnets like F@H for FREE. If they get ANY btc they will mine just for ePeen and bragging rights.

This is very true.

I've been amazed at the money and effort the folding guys put into the hobby for a long time. Putting up the biggest numbers on your team or being prominent in the community by way of production is a huge deal for them.

I once joined a folding team and ran a new cabinet full of top of the line blades for several days. It was enough to rank 2nd in daily output among a team of hundreds. I became a minor forum celebrity from it.

I didn't do anything smart, I wasn't nice or particularly friendly or charitable.

It's ridiculous.

Clipse

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 502

What amazes me is how fast Greed came into play regarding bitcoins.

I still find it fascinating and amazing that BTC=$ and here are people complaining about profitability and market scamming and god knows what else.

No one asked you to bitcoin mine, no one asked you to be a part of this forum however everyone is welcome and shouldnt take anything for granted.

bulanula

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Quote from: grue on May 25, 2011, 11:13:02 AM

Quote from: barbarousrelic on May 25, 2011, 11:07:22 AM

If this is true, then why would anyone drop out when it becomes unprofitable? And if nobody drops out when it becomes unprofitable, it won't become profitable again.

People will drop out because it takes more money to mine than to buy. Anyone who mines at a loss is insane.

Quote from: barbarousrelic on May 25, 2011, 11:07:22 AM

My prediction is that buying and operating a dedicated Bitcoin mining rig will tend toward slightly less than break-even in the long run because of competition against:

a) people who get electricity for free (college dorm dwellers, parents' basement dwellers)
b) people who have high-end graphics cards for their own video game amusement, who also use them on the side for mining. These people only care about post-hardware-purchase profits, not pre-purchase profits.

correct.

No these OCN kiddos are not insane. They will run at a loss because their mommy+daddy are paying for their gaming rigs and all that. Just see how many people give free cpu time to NSA botnets like F@H for FREE. If they get ANY btc they will mine just for ePeen and bragging rights.

Only fools believe that "once mining becomes unprofitable, people will drop out causing difficulty to fall and mining to be profitable again" !!!

Also only fools believe that "as difficulty rises the price rises" !!!

The cat is already long out of the bag and mining will NOT be profitable any time soon and the price will fall because it only has risen to 7.26 due to extreme speculation.

I expect it to level off near the price of making it ( electricity ) or about $0.25.

acamus

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Quote from: grue on May 25, 2011, 10:44:15 AM

Quote from: PRCman on May 25, 2011, 10:40:51 AM

Quote from: epi 1:10,000 on May 25, 2011, 10:39:13 AM

Assuming you pay for electricity/air conditioning and have a electricity rate of 5.5 cents per kilowatt hour, the next difficulty jump will make mining unprofitable!

when will it happen?

mining will ALWAYS be profitable, in the long term. once it becomes unprofitable, people will drop out, causing the difficultly to decrease, which will make it profitable again.

the mining market will reach an equilibrium being a nearly perfectly competitive market

bernd

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Also Botnets and jscript Miners will always be profitable.

Clipse

hero member

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Quote from: gentakin on May 25, 2011, 11:19:59 AM

Quote from: grue on May 25, 2011, 10:44:15 AM

mining will ALWAYS be profitable, in the long term. once it becomes unprofitable, people will drop out, causing the difficultly to decrease, which will make it profitable again.

Not quite. Take me for example, I'm paying 0.21 EUR per kwh, and that's about $0.30. So it depends mainly on your energy costs (also: hardware) wheter or not it will always be profitable for you. The guys with bad hardware efficiency (think CPU miners) are going to drop out earlier, as as well I will because of the high eur/kwh costs.

If you have low costs and efficient hardware, your statement might be true. But certainly not for everyone (unless I'm moving to the US, but that's not gonna happen).

Wow, $0.30 per kwh , where do you guys get your power from? Collection of A-grade call girls generating electricity from washing lines? Tongue

Clipse

hero member

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Quote from: Chucksta on May 25, 2011, 11:18:10 AM

Quote from: grue on May 25, 2011, 10:44:15 AM

Quote from: PRCman on May 25, 2011, 10:40:51 AM

Quote from: epi 1:10,000 on May 25, 2011, 10:39:13 AM

Assuming you pay for electricity/air conditioning and have a electricity rate of 5.5 cents per kilowatt hour, the next difficulty jump will make mining unprofitable!

when will it happen?

mining will ALWAYS be profitable, in the long term. once it becomes unprofitable, people will drop out, causing the difficultly to decrease, which will make it profitable again.

shhh, don't tell everyone !! we want people to stop !! LOL

I totally missed that point, uh yeh mining is done its time to trade or accept BTC at shops.

NO one can make profit anymore from mining, its a net loss, uh yes confirmed by governator.

gentakin

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Quote from: grue on May 25, 2011, 10:44:15 AM

mining will ALWAYS be profitable, in the long term. once it becomes unprofitable, people will drop out, causing the difficultly to decrease, which will make it profitable again.

Not quite. Take me for example, I'm paying 0.21 EUR per kwh, and that's about $0.30. So it depends mainly on your energy costs (also: hardware) wheter or not it will always be profitable for you. The guys with bad hardware efficiency (think CPU miners) are going to drop out earlier, as as well I will because of the high eur/kwh costs.

If you have low costs and efficient hardware, your statement might be true. But certainly not for everyone (unless I'm moving to the US, but that's not gonna happen).

Jaime Frontero

full member

Activity: 126

Merit: 100

Quote from: grue on May 25, 2011, 11:13:02 AM

Quote from: barbarousrelic on May 25, 2011, 11:07:22 AM

If this is true, then why would anyone drop out when it becomes unprofitable? And if nobody drops out when it becomes unprofitable, it won't become profitable again.

People will drop out because it takes more money to mine than to buy. Anyone who mines at a loss is insane.

Quote from: barbarousrelic on May 25, 2011, 11:07:22 AM

My prediction is that buying and operating a dedicated Bitcoin mining rig will tend toward slightly less than break-even in the long run because of competition against:

a) people who get electricity for free (college dorm dwellers, parents' basement dwellers)
b) people who have high-end graphics cards for their own video game amusement, who also use them on the side for mining. These people only care about post-hardware-purchase profits, not pre-purchase profits.

correct.

...with an addendum.

c) people like me, and Shades (above), who have paid-off miners, and whose mining costs are only electricity and maintenance.

Chucksta

full member

Activity: 168

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Quote from: grue on May 25, 2011, 10:44:15 AM

Quote from: PRCman on May 25, 2011, 10:40:51 AM

Quote from: epi 1:10,000 on May 25, 2011, 10:39:13 AM

Assuming you pay for electricity/air conditioning and have a electricity rate of 5.5 cents per kilowatt hour, the next difficulty jump will make mining unprofitable!

when will it happen?

mining will ALWAYS be profitable, in the long term. once it becomes unprofitable, people will drop out, causing the difficultly to decrease, which will make it profitable again.

shhh, don't tell everyone !! we want people to stop !! LOL

Clipse

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 502

Quote from: epi 1:10,000 on May 25, 2011, 10:39:13 AM

Assuming you pay for electricity/air conditioning and have a electricity rate of 5.5 cents per kilowatt hour, the next difficulty jump will make mining unprofitable!

At block 27,008

Rig=mobo/cpu, 2x 5870, 1x 5970

Wattage= 889
Second watt factor at 1.9

max Hashing power= 1390 mh/s -------> This is the max hashing rate I doubt most people can achieve this! In other words this is the limitation of current hardware available on the market.
Difficulty factor=495000

electricity cost @ 5.5 cents/kWh= $2.11 per day

.28 BTC a day or $2.09

kWh price calculator http://www.citytrf.net/costs_calculator.htm

your wattage cost is calculated wrong for some reason, it should be 0.899 x 0.055 per kwh x 24 = $1.18668 a day on power (mining income still nearly 100% of power cost)

here is my stats :

2x 550w Coolermaster GX psu (binded/chained)
4x HD5850 @ 1100/1250 1.275v pulling full load 220watt per card so thats total 880watt
MSI 890FXA-GD70
AMD Sempron 145 underclocked from 2.8ghz to 1.4ghz @ ~30watt

Total full load as read from kill-a-watt is 1050watt for the whole system which equals 1.05 kwh @ 0.072c (avg out peak/offpeak to be conservative with calculations)

So I am hashing at 420mhash/s per card totalling 1680mhash/s for total power usage of 1.05 kwh comes down to the following net gain:

Revenue per time frame: 842.01 USD
Revenue minus power costs: 786.78 USD (this is taken on a monthly run at next difficulty, so if you want to be a prune half this if you want to make up for extra difficulty increases)
Hardware break even: 0 seconds (allready paid for)
Net profit first time frame: 786.78 USD (this is a gain not a loss, and a hefty one for just 4cards)

uh oh, I just showed you 1680mhash/s on a single mining rig.

If you arnt profitable, you didnt do your homework.

grue

legendary

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1452

Quote from: barbarousrelic on May 25, 2011, 11:07:22 AM

If this is true, then why would anyone drop out when it becomes unprofitable? And if nobody drops out when it becomes unprofitable, it won't become profitable again.

People will drop out because it takes more money to mine than to buy. Anyone who mines at a loss is insane.

Quote from: barbarousrelic on May 25, 2011, 11:07:22 AM

My prediction is that buying and operating a dedicated Bitcoin mining rig will tend toward slightly less than break-even in the long run because of competition against:

a) people who get electricity for free (college dorm dwellers, parents' basement dwellers)
b) people who have high-end graphics cards for their own video game amusement, who also use them on the side for mining. These people only care about post-hardware-purchase profits, not pre-purchase profits.

correct.

Shades

newbie

Activity: 28

Merit: 0

I'm paying $0,18 per kilowatt hour. Four days work for the monthly bill (A/C included) at current difficulty. Even at 100% difficulty rise - still quite profitable Roll Eyes

Miners are payed for long ago.

As Jaime Frontero said:

Quote

i'm running 'em 'til they break.

barbarousrelic

hero member

Activity: 675

Merit: 502

Quote from: grue on May 25, 2011, 10:44:15 AM

Quote from: PRCman on May 25, 2011, 10:40:51 AM

Quote from: epi 1:10,000 on May 25, 2011, 10:39:13 AM

Assuming you pay for electricity/air conditioning and have a electricity rate of 5.5 cents per kilowatt hour, the next difficulty jump will make mining unprofitable!

when will it happen?

mining will ALWAYS be profitable, in the long term. once it becomes unprofitable, people will drop out, causing the difficultly to decrease, which will make it profitable again.

If this is true, then why would anyone drop out when it becomes unprofitable? And if nobody drops out when it becomes unprofitable, it won't become profitable again.

My prediction is that buying and operating a dedicated Bitcoin mining rig will tend toward slightly less than break-even in the long run because of competition against:

a) people who get electricity for free (college dorm dwellers, parents' basement dwellers)
b) people who have high-end graphics cards for their own video game amusement, who also use them on the side for mining. These people only care about post-hardware-purchase profits, not pre-purchase profits.

eleuthria

legendary

Activity: 1750

Merit: 1007

Just gonna put this out there...2x5870 + 1x5970 will get you more than 1390 mH/sec as well (and of course, as pointed out by another post, you're going to make way more than 0.28 per day @ 420k difficulty).

2x5870 = 420 + 420 (easily achievable, done so on 10 out of 10 5870s) = 840
1x5970 = 330 + 330 (easily achievable) = 660
840 + 660 = 1500 mH/sec.

1500 mH/sec @ 420k difficulty = 3.29 BTC/day x $7 = $23.03/day.

Jaime Frontero

full member

Activity: 126

Merit: 100

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Jaime Frontero on May 25, 2011, 10:57:25 AM

eh. my miners are all paid for.

2.1 Gh/s.

so it'll take me about four days of mining a month to pay my electrical bill, instead of the two days that it's taking now.

< shrug > i'm running 'em 'til they break.

What do you pay for electricity?

i'm paying about $100/mo over and above my normal electric bill for the miners. getting about 7-7.5 BTC/day.

n.b.: i haven't turned on the AC yet...

xenon481

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Quote from: hiVe on May 25, 2011, 10:53:12 AM

about 90% increase in diff...good bye all

The increase will not be anywhere near 90%. It is currently estimated at 71% with 357 blocks left to go. I expect the number to go up some more, but nowhere near 90%.

w128

newbie

Activity: 14

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Quote from: grue on May 25, 2011, 10:44:15 AM

Quote from: PRCman on May 25, 2011, 10:40:51 AM

Quote from: epi 1:10,000 on May 25, 2011, 10:39:13 AM

Assuming you pay for electricity/air conditioning and have a electricity rate of 5.5 cents per kilowatt hour, the next difficulty jump will make mining unprofitable!

when will it happen?

mining will ALWAYS be profitable, in the long term. once it becomes unprofitable, people will drop out, causing the difficultly to decrease, which will make it profitable again.

Nice circular logic you have going there.

Playing the lottery isn't close to profitable yet it doesn't stop people from sinking billions into it every year.

Jaime Frontero

full member

Activity: 126

Merit: 100

eh. my miners are all paid for.

2.1 Gh/s.

so it'll take me about four days of mining a month to pay my electrical bill, instead of the two days that it's taking now.

< shrug > i'm running 'em 'til they break.

Meni Rosenfeld

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1054

There's nothing wrong with your calculation, as long as you ignore the fact that you misplaced the decimal point and it's actually 2.8 BTC = $20.9, or ten times the electricity cost.

(and your stated difficulty is more than the bitcoincharts estimate).

Mining is insanely profitable and will remain so for a while, get used to it.

Topic: The next difficulty level will make mining unprofitable. - page 3. (Read 8882 times)