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Topic: The number of hodlers - page 3. (Read 726 times)

legendary
Activity: 2814
Merit: 1192
July 12, 2022, 03:11:32 PM
#26
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Worst BTC bearish market? Where did you get this information, OP?
I am pretty sure this ain't the "bearish" market in fact that I even encountered the price of 3k per BTC couple of years back.
Surely these indicators are not serious aren't they?

It's not the price that shows the severity of a crash but how fast and by how much it fell from the top. A fall from 5k to 3k would by no means be considered severe. A fall from 70k to 18k is really much worse. Some of the indicators we're talking about are the moving averages, number of red weeks in a row, volume of liquidations, the price being at the level of miner capitulation, which is the point where miners can no longer afford to hold their coins but instead sell everything to cover their bills, bitcoin being below the previous bull market high for the first time in history, and many more.
sr. member
Activity: 1610
Merit: 264
July 12, 2022, 12:21:51 PM
#25
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Worst BTC bearish market? Where did you get this information, OP?
I am pretty sure this ain't the "bearish" market in fact that I even encountered the price of 3k per BTC couple of years back.
Surely these indicators are not serious aren't they?
hero member
Activity: 2478
Merit: 695
SecureShift.io | Crypto-Exchange
July 12, 2022, 12:04:16 PM
#24
The number of hodlers not selling ever under extreme market conditions has become higher than in previous bearish markets.


This means investors are more understanding the bearish market now than before, probably only few number of investors are panic selling under this condition. btc 2021/22 performance have shown investors it is much more profitable to hodl even if the market is at it's lowest than to sell for loss. Those who held through the previous bear market were rewarded greatly. Once investors completely understood btc after every bear market will always hit a new ath will stop selling whenever there is bear season.
legendary
Activity: 2478
Merit: 1360
Don't let others control your BTC -> self custody
July 12, 2022, 11:39:15 AM
#23
Although the on-chain indicators point towards the worst-ever BTC bearish market, they also underscore the increasing resilence of hodlers.

The number of hodlers not selling ever under extreme market conditions has become higher than in previous bearish markets.

It is the worst bear market in history but it's also:
  • the bear market with the highest high in history and so far the highest low
  • the bear market with all time low balance on exchanges
  • the bear market with the highest hash power in history
  • the first bear market with price of USD this high and high USD price always means a pressure on bitcoin

This is my third bear market and every time I held. This is going to be no different.
legendary
Activity: 1960
Merit: 3107
LE ☮︎ Halving es la purga
July 12, 2022, 10:54:18 AM
#22
,,,,//....,,increasing resilence of hodlers.....//....:::

That is to say, that from his survey "I Hodl" you intend to get the number of Hodlers, because there is no projection in the OP  (or source), I feel that there are 3 themes in his context.

Believe me that resilience is something very individual and has nothing to do with a group of users, that is, the fact that you are a hodler does not mean that you are a person who has resilience.

...//...:::
The number of hodlers not selling ever under extreme market conditions has become higher than in previous bearish markets.
Where are the numbers that confirm that, or simply your idea is it something that as always happens with bitcoin is only  thoughts , sensations... of readingsn what happen here, there, even things like the result of the poll "x" (OP).

I am not saying that there are no sources that can be trusted based on that data (hodlers) but sometimes they are generated from perceptions individual.
hero member
Activity: 2870
Merit: 594
July 12, 2022, 05:44:26 AM
#21
Although the on-chain indicators point towards the worst-ever BTC bearish market, they also underscore the increasing resilence of hodlers.

The number of hodlers not selling ever under extreme market conditions has become higher than in previous bearish markets.
Of course, doesn't make sense for holders to sell just because the price is tanking and one of the worst bearish market.

We even have this report, Bitcoin Leaving Exchanges Hits An All-Time High. But it doesn't mean that the bitcoin leaving exchanges are being sold, maybe they just want to put in a safe wallet wherein they have total control over it.
hero member
Activity: 3206
Merit: 940
July 12, 2022, 12:48:46 AM
#20

I don't doubt that this is the case, what I doubt is that it is a bullish indicator, which is what the news sells us when they say that Bitcoins are leaving the exchanges.

The process of Bitcoin moving out of crypto exchanges into cold wallets is neither bullish or bearish.
The new money that enters the crypto market usually flows into the centralized crypto exchange platforms, because:
1.The platforms are usually more convenient.
2.Crypto newbies still don't understand the meaning of "not your keys, not your coins" and "be your own bank". That's why they prefer to trust a company.
The hardcore crypto traders/investors, who are inside the crypto world for several years, got disappointed by the crypto exchanges, so they are moving their coins out of them.
In summary, increasing the amount of coins in crypto exchanges can be seen as a bullish indicator, while coins moving from exchanges to cold storage is more like neutral. The argument of this process actually increasing the number of HODLers isn't completely valid, because those investors could potentially their sell the coins, which are stored in their cold wallets.
hero member
Activity: 1806
Merit: 722
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
July 12, 2022, 12:25:40 AM
#19
I can't lie to you am totally jot getting your point here, it maybe a question or suggestions but either ways I believe OP will find out time to get things right by himself with just a little editing to make it readable and understandable, here if i may try make some and bearish in bitcoin price isn't the first if it kind and holder only have the choice to wait until when the time comes for them to pull out for sale

The number of bitcoin is increasing according to some articles we see because the people who leave bitcoin price is currently at an extraordinary situation to buy are still buying bitcoins and holding it for the long term which is a good move by them however during the bearish market people will feel the pressure because some of them need their money and some others are worried about the price of bitcoin so they would start selling bitcoin, I can't lie here because I had to see a little part of my investment and feel regret however I'm waiting for a chance to buyback keep holding for long term.
legendary
Activity: 3234
Merit: 1214
Casinopunkz - Anonymous Crypto Casino
July 12, 2022, 12:14:41 AM
#18
The increase in number of hodlers is due to the awareness about bitcoin. Earlier people were just new to the market and that makes them easily fall for speculations. Now it is not the same, market is driven by all level of hodlers. In the past whales have the major contribution. Same as that we have cyclic market for stocks, here too similar thing is happening on four year cycle.

The price that reached ath during the year 2017 month of November further started to drop and the next ath was reached during the year 2020. Later once again the growth continued reaching the ath in the year 2021. So, a four year cycle is on process. Upon which the market will move in a stable manner and the bullish moves would take time. So, realising this the people might've started to accumulate. This too can be a reason for increase in number of hodlers than selling.
full member
Activity: 2576
Merit: 205
July 11, 2022, 11:02:25 PM
#17
Although the on-chain indicators point towards the worst-ever BTC bearish market, they also underscore the increasing resilence of hodlers.
That is On chain indicator but this is still not the bearish market ever because there are years in which the market drops really bad comparing to what we are having now.
Quote
The number of hodlers not selling ever under extreme market conditions has become higher than in previous bearish markets.

Wait, how can you call them holder if they are going to sell their coin in whatever market condition this is?

lol of course they are holders(wait I am also a Holder lol) so they will keep the funds intact in this dumping market.
legendary
Activity: 3472
Merit: 10611
July 11, 2022, 10:53:19 PM
#16
I don't doubt that this is the case, what I doubt is that it is a bullish indicator, which is what the news sells us when they say that Bitcoins are leaving the exchanges.
I didn't say this is a bullish indicator either, just that a lot of people are buying bitcoin. The reason why price dropped is because the dumps are sudden and big where whales and panic sellers sell a large amount of bitcoin in a very short time but the buys are slow and spread over time.

Besides if as you said bitcoin is leaving exchanges then it is supporting exactly what I said that people are buying bitcoin and moving it to their cold storages. Keep in mind that this has been happening for some time now, not just one small case. See this topic from last month: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-hodlers-are-actively-buying-bitcoin-these-days-5402690
copper member
Activity: 2800
Merit: 1179
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
July 11, 2022, 10:50:38 PM
#15
Although the on-chain indicators point towards the worst-ever BTC bearish market, they also underscore the increasing resilence of hodlers.

The number of hodlers not selling ever under extreme market conditions has become higher than in previous bearish markets.


The current price is way above the price since the last bear market last pandemic so it means that many holders remain holding since the price is not on same level. Whales just transfer there big bag holdings to small retail holders that bought in the top and no choice than to hold. Y
We might see an increase of holders once the price dip lower because many will buy whales bug at lower price.

legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 2017
July 11, 2022, 10:45:51 PM
#14
Actually the "on-chain indicators" have already shown that people are increasingly purchasing bitcoin and moving it to their cold storages. For example if you have checked the number of bitcoin addresses with a balance you could have seen that their number is increasing specifically those addresses with more than a whole bitcoin which shows that people are taking advantage of the current discount.

And yet the price keeps dropping?

I don't know if you have read what I posted before.

News from April 4, when the price was around $42k:

Bitcoin Continues To Flow Out Of Exchanges.

This one from January 28:

Bitcoin Worth $670M Leaves Centralized Exchanges After Hawkish Fed Comments.

I don't doubt that this is the case, what I doubt is that it is a bullish indicator, which is what the news sells us when they say that Bitcoins are leaving the exchanges.
hero member
Activity: 1442
Merit: 775
July 11, 2022, 10:45:05 PM
#13
Each cycle that is about 4 years, we have better adoption that is reflected on total Bitcoin addresses, number of estimated holders, utility for Bitcoin and upgrades in technology. In this cycle, we have Taproot upgrades + Schnorr signature and a very amazing growth of Lightning Network.

If you want to check holders and their on chain stats, I know some and will share them here

Wallet sizes from 100+, 1000+ BTC:
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/wallets-greater-than-1000-btc/
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/wallets-greater-than-100-btc/

Bitcoin Rich list: https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html

HODL camp: https://hodl.camp/
HODL waves: https://unchained.com/hodlwaves/

legendary
Activity: 3472
Merit: 10611
July 11, 2022, 10:36:49 PM
#12
Actually the "on-chain indicators" have already shown that people are increasingly purchasing bitcoin and moving it to their cold storages. For example if you have checked the number of bitcoin addresses with a balance you could have seen that their number is increasing specifically those addresses with more than a whole bitcoin which shows that people are taking advantage of the current discount.
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 2017
July 11, 2022, 10:26:41 PM
#11
The number of hodlers not selling ever under extreme market conditions has become higher than in previous bearish markets.

I was going to ask you for the source of this, but googling I get reddit and this: The number of hodlers not selling ever under extreme market conditions has become higher than in previous bearish markets

which are the same source garbage. An image that anyone can make with Paint.

I'm not saying it's fake, but I'm skeptical of this data. It reminds me of the number of times since a year ago that I've seen the news that the number of Bitcoins leaving the exchanges (supposedly for HODL) just keep growing. I remember seeing a news story about it 3 or 4 times just before it dropped in price.
copper member
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1619
Bitcoin Bottom was at $15.4k
July 11, 2022, 09:58:31 PM
#10
How could you be that perfect in your chart reading? Interesting.

Told everyone that BTC is about to touch 200 Weekly Moving Average i.e. $21.5k - Bitcoin and It's Events
Told everyone that a 50% drop is incoming - Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Capitulation Alert!

It's not that hard when you are able to relate it with the historical patterns which happened with BTC previously.
And on top of that, I worked hard on my technical analysis.
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1011
July 11, 2022, 09:55:35 PM
#9
I won't lie, I saw this drop incoming, I sold near $50k's and bought back at $32k, then sold at $64k in Nov.
The chart pattern which was forming was double top with bearish RSI Divergence in which RSI is was going down, Price was going up.

Once it came towards $48k, I was able to see it forming another similar pattern which happened in 2018 that it will touch $22k.
So I bought at $21.5k for 50%, and DCAing the rest 50% throughout the year.

Wow well done, i think the 17.8 K is last dip and i hope so if the bitcoin price break that supports in 17.8K i don't know what i going to say but DCA is best at this point in range 20K range and wait for other confirmation

Compared to previous bear market cycles we are just starting to get into this one. I do not think $17.8k was, or is, the lowest point we will see.

Just some random ramblings to keep in the back of your mind, the 2017 peak was just shy of $20k and the last peak in late 2021 was $69k (lets call it $70k for our simple thought experiment.)

So the difference in peaks between the two last bull markets was on the order of $70k/$20k or about 3.5x.

The low between the peaks was around $3200 (Dec 2018). So if we use the same multiplier of 3.5x on the low, we would see a new low of roughly $11,200 this time around.

Of course this is all just guesswork, but it does help to keep history in mind before becoming too confident in any bottom predictions.

Myself I would be more comfortable placing buys once the price gets closer to the $11k area than the rather lofty $17.8k region. Another thought is since $10k is a major psychological level, we would perhaps test that if BTC does get down that far, so even $11k is probably a bit high to hope for a true bottom, perhaps we might see some dips down in the $9k's.

Anyway DCA is your friend, but I would start investing very lightly at what I consider these high ($17k) estimates of BTC's bottom.
sr. member
Activity: 2380
Merit: 366
July 11, 2022, 09:42:33 PM
#8
I hodl. And I am happy to see that many of those who voted in this poll are also hodlers like myself. This is despite the market condition and the outlook of a number of analysts that seem to predict of a more bearish days to come.

I am also happy that despite the heavy selling done by many weak hands, this does not just result into feeding the whales. The data shows that there are now a higher number of wallets with at least 1 Bitcoin. That must mean something.
copper member
Activity: 2156
Merit: 983
Part of AOBT - English Translator to Indonesia
July 11, 2022, 09:11:29 PM
#7
I won't lie, I saw this drop incoming, I sold near $50k's and bought back at $32k, then sold at $64k in Nov.
The chart pattern which was forming was double top with bearish RSI Divergence in which RSI is was going down, Price was going up.

Once it came towards $48k, I was able to see it forming another similar pattern which happened in 2018 that it will touch $22k.
So I bought at $21.5k for 50%, and DCAing the rest 50% throughout the year.

Wow well done, i think the 17.8 K is last dip and i hope so if the bitcoin price break that supports in 17.8K i don't know what i going to say but DCA is best at this point in range 20K range and wait for other confirmation
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