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Topic: the One Year Prediction thread (Read 2299 times)

sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
July 04, 2014, 02:06:29 PM
#26
$100,000 Bitcoin.  Mark. My. Words.
Yeah right. If it happens, I'll give you a thousand dollars worth of bitcoin. Wink

If it happens, $1000 or 1/100th of a BTC, probably still wouldn't be worth a burger, fries, and beer in terms of purchasing power. The USD would have to crash mightily.
legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1000
Well hello there!
July 04, 2014, 11:52:23 AM
#25
I'm guessing around $4,800/BTC by July of next year. (bullish prediction) Smiley

God I love these kinda threads :p
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
July 04, 2014, 11:44:38 AM
#24
$100,000 Bitcoin.  Mark. My. Words.

sure hope you're right Smiley
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1001
July 04, 2014, 11:35:13 AM
#23
After you make a prediction, plan on coming back a year later (or sooner) and commenting on whether your prediction turned out to be correct or not.

Also, feel free to quote other people's predictions in your own posts. That way people can't edit their predictions down the line!

(I'm updating the OP to include these instructions.)
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1001
July 04, 2014, 11:33:13 AM
#22
I will still not be able to g to my local store buy toothpaste with btc

Oh I think you're gonna be mistaken! There is a coffeeshop near me that uses Revel as their point-of-sale payment processor at the checkout line. Revel has integrated bitcoin. The coffeeshop hasn't activated it yet (I haven't talked to the owner yet, just an employee, but I think the owner doesn't know about it yet), but they're only a click away.
legendary
Activity: 2730
Merit: 1288
July 04, 2014, 11:24:09 AM
#21
I will still not be able to g to my local store buy toothpaste with btc
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
July 04, 2014, 09:05:42 AM
#20
My guesses for mid-2015. Informed intuition, nothing more.

Worst case (< 50% likelihood): Between $500 and $900.

Best case (< 50% likelihood): brief peak to $10,000, but would probably sharply drop from there.

Most likely case: Between $1000 and $3000.
full member
Activity: 144
Merit: 100
July 04, 2014, 08:44:19 AM
#19
I agree with btc trader71 on the logistic charts

It's likely the chart holds true even in a year, or at least it's close to it. So a price as high as $50000 during a peak (that could hit by July next year) is not entirely impossable.

In fact it's pretty likely.

when bitcoin was 100 i never thought we would be at 300 and 400 so fast.. and all the predictions of $1000 per BTC seemed a bit crazy...
and i assume the same would have been felt for people who watched prices from $<10 to $100
the possibility of 10x price increase is not crazy anymore - and i think with the network effect and BTC only getting stronger every day actually more likely


legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005
July 04, 2014, 06:28:05 AM
#18
I agree with btc trader71 on the logistic charts

It's likely the chart holds true even in a year, or at least it's close to it. So a price as high as $50000 during a peak (that could hit by July next year) is not entirely impossable.

In fact it's pretty likely.
sr. member
Activity: 952
Merit: 281
July 04, 2014, 02:24:41 AM
#17
$100,000 Bitcoin.  Mark. My. Words.
Yeah right. If it happens, I'll give you a thousand dollars worth of bitcoin. Wink
Sweet thank you
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
VocalPlatform.com
July 04, 2014, 02:18:24 AM
#16
Amazon, eBay, Google, Western Union, Paypal ? 5k - 6k for the next July 15th seems realistic to me... Holly ! let's buy !
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1053
Please do not PM me loan requests!
July 03, 2014, 10:18:43 PM
#15
$100,000 Bitcoin.  Mark. My. Words.
Yeah right. If it happens, I'll give you a thousand dollars worth of bitcoin. Wink
legendary
Activity: 3556
Merit: 5041
July 03, 2014, 08:32:24 PM
#14
5000-6000 by July 2015.  10K by December 2015.

And no I'm not high, this is VERY achievable.  If I've underestimated, even better.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1001
July 03, 2014, 04:25:23 PM
#13
Really, there are way too many variables to make accurate predictions.  Even if you subscribe to an adoption-based price model, there are plenty of unknowns about adoption rates, acceptance, laws and regulations, and more.  Making predictions for next year is pretty tough.

True. But it behooves us to make out best guess, nonetheless. As long as we don't kid ourselves about the degree of certainty / uncertainty.
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
July 03, 2014, 03:59:46 PM
#12
I'll follow Abraham Lincoln's advice to keep one's mouth shut and let people think one is a fool.  It's better than opening one's mouth and removing all doubt.  

Really, there are way too many variables to make accurate predictions.  Even if you subscribe to an adoption-based price model, there are plenty of unknowns about adoption rates, acceptance, laws and regulations, and more.  Making predictions for next year is pretty tough.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1001
July 03, 2014, 03:51:35 PM
#11
$100,000 Bitcoin.  Mark. My. Words.
Possible. Unlikely imho, but possible.

Part of my rationale in saying that is that I think the fluctuations above and below the log-trendline should slowly decrease over time.
sr. member
Activity: 952
Merit: 281
July 03, 2014, 03:44:56 PM
#10
$100,000 Bitcoin.  Mark. My. Words.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1001
July 03, 2014, 03:03:18 PM
#9
You fools are all low-balling it. It will be at a very minimum 10k, I think probably more like 40-50k per coin by July 2015.

I predict that one year from now, Stephen Reed's (aka Slippery Slope's) model will continue to prove itself. His model [1] predicts the baseline to be around $20,000 by July 1, 2015, with a range anywhere from as low as 1/2 or 1/3 to as high as 2 or 3 x the baseline. The timing of the ups and downs is harder to predict than the baseline, but I would not be surprised to see us hit an ATH soon, crash, then hit another ATH by July 1. Depending on the timing, that could give us at an ATH of 40k-60k within the next year.

IOW, I agree with you, chopstick Smiley The reason I lowballed it is that I'd like to be able to tell people a year from now that I predicted a ridiculously huge increase in market value and still underestimated it  Cool

[1] https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/stephen-reeds-million-dollar-logistic-model-366214
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=1

EDIT: His current calculations put us at $25k, not $20k, on July 1, 2015.
full member
Activity: 151
Merit: 100
July 03, 2014, 02:43:12 PM
#8
1k or higher.
full member
Activity: 141
Merit: 100
July 03, 2014, 01:35:40 PM
#7
1k-5k USD.
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