The peak, how it is determined? - page 2.

jakelyson

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Quote from: incombit on July 24, 2019, 11:22:23 AM

Than using it as a currency, most majorities of people take advantages of Bitcoins as a trading asset. Under that point of view, simply, if the trader wants to earn profit, the price must go up.

Some traders also earn when the price is going down by shorting bitcoin. So the analogy that the price must go up in order to earn profit is wrong. That is why there are other people who spread FUD. They want to profit from their shorts.

Quote from: incombit on July 24, 2019, 11:22:23 AM

What’s the peak?

The peak decides by the moment what? More people assume that “there won’t be a pump further”. At the moment, people stop buying Bitcoins, demand reduces and price gets down…

So, my question is,

Are there some "special" circumstances assisting people to think like that (there won’t be a pump further)?

Some use technical analysis to determine this but the easiest hint is if the price goes up so fast in a short period of time, then the price is due to reverse. This is because the bulls will get exhausted and there will be profit-taking, thus pulling the price down.

But if you mean the ATH, then it cannot be determined. Bitcoin is open to reaching new ATH all the time.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: incombit on July 24, 2019, 11:22:23 AM

Let’s suppose a pump… $10,000 -> $20,000 -> $25,000 -> $32,000 -> $44,000 -> $52,000

What’s the peak?

The peak decides by the moment what? More people assume that “there won’t be a pump further”. At the moment, people stop buying Bitcoins, demand reduces and price gets down…

So, my question is,

Are there some "special" circumstances assisting people to think like that (there won’t be a pump further)?

it's not about what people think will happen.

it's the fact that price reached a certain point, eg $19666 in 2017, and sellers began to finally outnumber buyers. in other words, everyone who was willing to buy at that price already bought. but there were still lots of people who wanted to sell. this excess supply pushing into weak demand started pushing price down.

the price decline creates a feedback effect in the market: holders are pressured to sell to lock in profits or cut losses, and buyers stop buying for fear of the falling prices.

the tricky thing is, you can only know this happened in hindsight. in real time, it could just be a short term correction. at first, after we hit $19666, nobody thought it was the top. until it fell, and fell, and......fell. eventually it was obvious......in hindsight.

Theb

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People setting up a target price farther then its current price simply doesn't know what he is talking about, even if he thrown in a lot of analysis and good explanation it simply doesn't make it much more accurate, why? Because unlike other markets the demand can shift in a faster pace compared to what we normally used to. One minute its going up 500 points and the next 10 minutes you will see its losing 250$ (or more) of its value, you may never know when the whales or a group of traders will start offloading their position at a certain value.

Naida_BR

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Quote from: incombit on July 24, 2019, 11:22:23 AM

This question is linked is with the following thread I started.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-price-am-i-right-5167744

Yes, it's clear for me now that one of the main factors what it decides the Bitcoin price is demand.
So, this is a second part of my question…

Than using it as a currency, most majorities of people take advantages of Bitcoins as a trading asset. Under that point of view, simply, if the trader wants to earn profit, the price must go up.

Let’s suppose a pump… $10,000 -> $20,000 -> $25,000 -> $32,000 -> $44,000 -> $52,000

What’s the peak?

The peak decides by the moment what? More people assume that “there won’t be a pump further”. At the moment, people stop buying Bitcoins, demand reduces and price gets down…

So, my question is,

Are there some "special" circumstances assisting people to think like that (there won’t be a pump further)?

The peak is decided by a few people (the whales) who decide if they reach their profit target or not.
This is the reason why I think that Bitcoin is not so decentralized... As its price is controlled the whole chain is controlled and it losses its decentralized feature.

Artemis3

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CLEAN non GPL infringing code made in Rust lang

Quote from: incombit on July 24, 2019, 11:22:23 AM

Than using it as a currency, most majorities of people take advantages of Bitcoins as a trading asset. Under that point of view, simply, if the trader wants to earn profit, the price must go up.

Let’s suppose a pump… $10,000 -> $20,000 -> $25,000 -> $32,000 -> $44,000 -> $52,000

What’s the peak?

The peak decides by the moment what? More people assume that “there won’t be a pump further”. At the moment, people stop buying Bitcoins, demand reduces and price gets down…

So, my question is,

Are there some "special" circumstances assisting people to think like that (there won’t be a pump further)?

Indeed no one knows the peak until after the fact, otherwise all traders would be rich, but in reality only about 10% manage to hit it right...

Obviously the peak is a point where it didn't go further and then started going down. Doesn't matter if there are other peaks later, of lesser or greater magnitude. Just like mountains, each have their own peak, regardless of other mountains being taller or smaller.

Since you stopped at 52 lets assume 50 comes next, then 40, etc. 52 was the peak in that period. Doesn't matter if later goes back up to 60, that's yet another peak if it doesn't go further up.

So its just a way for naming an event after the fact. There are also valleys...

gentlemand

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Welt Am Draht

No one knows until it's in the rear view mirror. You can certainly sense the hysteria in the air at the time but if you're balls deep in it you're expecting more hysteria on top of it.

For myself I knew 2017 was done when I guy I knew called out of nowhere and wanted permission to buy $3 XRP. He was the dumbest money imaginable and that's always the last to arrive and the first to get fucked.

Hardly anyone times the peak and the price people pine over for years afterwards was probably achieved by about 5-10 people on the entire planet so it's a pretty meaningless figure.

Decimation

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Quote from: YuginKadoya on July 24, 2019, 01:46:03 PM

The most analytical analysis is determined with the movement of the preview of Bitcoin and not because of the traders that profits if the past all-time high of Bitcoin was $20,000 USD back then the peak can be closer to that All-time high, Well the peak is still undetermined because there might something happen with Bitcoin and there might be negative news and something might go wrong with any issue involving it, But we can determine the peak by looking back on the previews ATH, well I guess the closest price we may land is $40,000 USD to $50,000 USD.

The peak is determined by pure speculation. Flip a coin, heads say it's $20.000, tails says it's $60.000. While there are some indicators, no one really knows, especially with something was volatile as Bitcoin is. The news is certainly a factor though, I completely agree with you there.

YuginKadoya

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The most analytical analysis is determined with the movement of the preview of Bitcoin and not because of the traders that profits if the past all-time high of Bitcoin was $20,000 USD back then the peak can be closer to that All-time high, Well the peak is still undetermined because there might something happen with Bitcoin and there might be negative news and something might go wrong with any issue involving it, But we can determine the peak by looking back on the previews ATH, well I guess the closest price we may land is $40,000 USD to $50,000 USD.

incombit

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This question is linked is with the following thread I started.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-price-am-i-right-5167744

Yes, it's clear for me now that one of the main factors what it decides the Bitcoin price is demand.
So, this is a second part of my question…

Than using it as a currency, most majorities of people take advantages of Bitcoins as a trading asset. Under that point of view, simply, if the trader wants to earn profit, the price must go up.

Let’s suppose a pump… $10,000 -> $20,000 -> $25,000 -> $32,000 -> $44,000 -> $52,000

What’s the peak?

The peak decides by the moment what? More people assume that “there won’t be a pump further”. At the moment, people stop buying Bitcoins, demand reduces and price gets down…

So, my question is,

Are there some "special" circumstances assisting people to think like that (there won’t be a pump further)?

Topic: The peak, how it is determined? - page 2. (Read 370 times)