The pessimists - post crash stable price guesses?

BitcoinTate

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Quote from: Qoheleth on April 03, 2013, 11:59:37 AM

Tentative floor of somewhere between $13 and $5, based on two factors:

The first crash's final "New Paradigm" -> "Despair" gap was something like 17x; looking at current prices, any peak < $220, if it falls a similar distance, will end up between the two numbers.
$5 was the last place we saw long-term stability, and will represent a major psychological rock for people vis a vis BTC's "true value". $13 was semi-stable, but for a shorter time and with greater variation.

This is all spitball, of course. If I really knew where BTC would end up - or when the crash will occur - or even that there will be a crash at all - I'd be trading on my belief instead of yapping about it on a forum.

Lol I have been wondering where all the bears have been hiding the past couple days

Qoheleth

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Spurn wild goose chases. Seek that which endures.

Tentative floor of somewhere between $13 and $5, based on two factors:

The first crash's final "New Paradigm" -> "Despair" gap was something like 17x; looking at current prices, any peak < $220, if it falls a similar distance, will end up between the two numbers.
$5 was the last place we saw long-term stability, and will represent a major psychological rock for people vis a vis BTC's "true value". $13 was semi-stable, but for a shorter time and with greater variation.

This is all spitball, of course. If I really knew where BTC would end up - or when the crash will occur - or even that there will be a crash at all - I'd be trading on my belief instead of yapping about it on a forum.

mobodick

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Quote from: BitcoinTate on April 03, 2013, 11:29:25 AM

Quote from: chiropteran on April 03, 2013, 11:16:24 AM

Quote from: fabrizziop on April 03, 2013, 10:58:55 AM

Quote from: mobodick on April 03, 2013, 10:55:25 AM

Quote from: marhjan on April 03, 2013, 10:48:49 AM

Initial crash down to around $8.50 or so - rebound to around $20-25USD for awhile and then slow climb back up. BTC is extremely overvalued right now, but there's no saying it can't goto $500+ before this bubble pops. I do believe in the long term future of btc but we've gotten WAY out in front of reality.

Full disclosure - I've been horribly wrong on price for sometime - I still think the crash is coming, HAS to come, but my level of certainity has dropped from nearly 100% to about 90% in this recent runup. If I finally become short term bullish it's time to sell for sure ;-)

There is no reason whatsoever to think the price will crash so low.

Markets overshoot, like how we crashed from 31.9$ to just under 2$, to reach stability at 5$

The June 2011 bubble started at $.50, and then crashed down to $2 and was eventually stable at $5

If this bubble follows the same pattern, it started at $20 and will crash down to $80 and stabilize at $200.

There is no reason to think the value will crash below the pre-bubble level.

There is no way the value will crash below pre-bubble level.

The pre-bubble price was around $12 tho and started its rise in the first week of this year.

BitcoinTate

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Quote from: chiropteran on April 03, 2013, 11:16:24 AM

Quote from: fabrizziop on April 03, 2013, 10:58:55 AM

Quote from: mobodick on April 03, 2013, 10:55:25 AM

Quote from: marhjan on April 03, 2013, 10:48:49 AM

Initial crash down to around $8.50 or so - rebound to around $20-25USD for awhile and then slow climb back up. BTC is extremely overvalued right now, but there's no saying it can't goto $500+ before this bubble pops. I do believe in the long term future of btc but we've gotten WAY out in front of reality.

Full disclosure - I've been horribly wrong on price for sometime - I still think the crash is coming, HAS to come, but my level of certainity has dropped from nearly 100% to about 90% in this recent runup. If I finally become short term bullish it's time to sell for sure ;-)

There is no reason whatsoever to think the price will crash so low.

Markets overshoot, like how we crashed from 31.9$ to just under 2$, to reach stability at 5$

The June 2011 bubble started at $.50, and then crashed down to $2 and was eventually stable at $5

If this bubble follows the same pattern, it started at $20 and will crash down to $80 and stabilize at $200.

There is no reason to think the value will crash below the pre-bubble level.

There is no way the value will crash below pre-bubble level.

chiropteran

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Quote from: fabrizziop on April 03, 2013, 10:58:55 AM

Quote from: mobodick on April 03, 2013, 10:55:25 AM

Quote from: marhjan on April 03, 2013, 10:48:49 AM

Initial crash down to around $8.50 or so - rebound to around $20-25USD for awhile and then slow climb back up. BTC is extremely overvalued right now, but there's no saying it can't goto $500+ before this bubble pops. I do believe in the long term future of btc but we've gotten WAY out in front of reality.

Full disclosure - I've been horribly wrong on price for sometime - I still think the crash is coming, HAS to come, but my level of certainity has dropped from nearly 100% to about 90% in this recent runup. If I finally become short term bullish it's time to sell for sure ;-)

There is no reason whatsoever to think the price will crash so low.

Markets overshoot, like how we crashed from 31.9$ to just under 2$, to reach stability at 5$

The June 2011 bubble started at $.50, and then crashed down to $2 and was eventually stable at $5

If this bubble follows the same pattern, it started at $20 and will crash down to $80 and stabilize at $200.

There is no reason to think the value will crash below the pre-bubble level.

BitcoinTate

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Quote from: mobodick on April 03, 2013, 10:57:17 AM

Quote from: BitcoinTate on April 03, 2013, 10:51:40 AM

Quote from: marhjan on April 03, 2013, 10:48:49 AM

Initial crash down to around $8.50 or so - rebound to around $20-25USD for awhile and then slow climb back up. BTC is extremely overvalued right now, but there's no saying it can't goto $500+ before this bubble pops. I do believe in the long term future of btc but we've gotten WAY out in front of reality.

Full disclosure - I've been horribly wrong on price for sometime - I still think the crash is coming, HAS to come, but my level of certainity has dropped from nearly 100% to about 90% in this recent runup. If I finally become short term bullish it's time to sell for sure ;-)

Bahahaha! And what about the 10,000 new accounts still waiting to move cash in and buy some BTC? BTC could be at $5,000 by the end of the year.

You havent been around long, have you?
Remember, don't bet with money you dont have.

Long enough to see the writing on the wall... barring a government ban, natural disaster such as a giant meteor hitting the earth or some other massive calamity BTC has no where to go but up very rapidly.

fabrizziop

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Quote from: mobodick on April 03, 2013, 10:55:25 AM

Quote from: marhjan on April 03, 2013, 10:48:49 AM

Initial crash down to around $8.50 or so - rebound to around $20-25USD for awhile and then slow climb back up. BTC is extremely overvalued right now, but there's no saying it can't goto $500+ before this bubble pops. I do believe in the long term future of btc but we've gotten WAY out in front of reality.

Full disclosure - I've been horribly wrong on price for sometime - I still think the crash is coming, HAS to come, but my level of certainity has dropped from nearly 100% to about 90% in this recent runup. If I finally become short term bullish it's time to sell for sure ;-)

There is no reason whatsoever to think the price will crash so low.

Markets overshoot, like how we crashed from 31.9$ to just under 2$, to reach stability at 5$

mobodick

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Quote from: BitcoinTate on April 03, 2013, 10:51:40 AM

Quote from: marhjan on April 03, 2013, 10:48:49 AM

Initial crash down to around $8.50 or so - rebound to around $20-25USD for awhile and then slow climb back up. BTC is extremely overvalued right now, but there's no saying it can't goto $500+ before this bubble pops. I do believe in the long term future of btc but we've gotten WAY out in front of reality.

Full disclosure - I've been horribly wrong on price for sometime - I still think the crash is coming, HAS to come, but my level of certainity has dropped from nearly 100% to about 90% in this recent runup. If I finally become short term bullish it's time to sell for sure ;-)

Bahahaha! And what about the 10,000 new accounts still waiting to move cash in and buy some BTC? BTC could be at $5,000 by the end of the year.

You havent been around long, have you?
Remember, don't bet with money you dont have.

mobodick

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Activity: 840

Merit: 1000

Quote from: marhjan on April 03, 2013, 10:48:49 AM

Initial crash down to around $8.50 or so - rebound to around $20-25USD for awhile and then slow climb back up. BTC is extremely overvalued right now, but there's no saying it can't goto $500+ before this bubble pops. I do believe in the long term future of btc but we've gotten WAY out in front of reality.

Full disclosure - I've been horribly wrong on price for sometime - I still think the crash is coming, HAS to come, but my level of certainity has dropped from nearly 100% to about 90% in this recent runup. If I finally become short term bullish it's time to sell for sure ;-)

There is no reason whatsoever to think the price will crash so low.

farfiman

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If the price crashes to the 20-30 area- The media will have a ball and recovery will take a very long time.

BitcoinTate

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DigiByte Founder

Quote from: marhjan on April 03, 2013, 10:48:49 AM

Initial crash down to around $8.50 or so - rebound to around $20-25USD for awhile and then slow climb back up. BTC is extremely overvalued right now, but there's no saying it can't goto $500+ before this bubble pops. I do believe in the long term future of btc but we've gotten WAY out in front of reality.

Full disclosure - I've been horribly wrong on price for sometime - I still think the crash is coming, HAS to come, but my level of certainity has dropped from nearly 100% to about 90% in this recent runup. If I finally become short term bullish it's time to sell for sure ;-)

Bahahaha! And what about the 10,000 new accounts still waiting to move cash in and buy some BTC? BTC could be at $5,000 by the end of the year.

marhjan

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Poorer than I ought to be

Initial crash down to around $8.50 or so - rebound to around $20-25USD for awhile and then slow climb back up. BTC is extremely overvalued right now, but there's no saying it can't goto $500+ before this bubble pops. I do believe in the long term future of btc but we've gotten WAY out in front of reality.

Full disclosure - I've been horribly wrong on price for sometime - I still think the crash is coming, HAS to come, but my level of certainity has dropped from nearly 100% to about 90% in this recent runup. If I finally become short term bullish it's time to sell for sure ;-)

chiropteran

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The bubble will pop at $876. Initial crash will be down to $50, but immediate recovery and stability around $300. Very stable for 5-6 months around $290-320, and then the next growth spurt begins. $3000 bitcoins at the end of 2013.

Ekaros

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Quote from: SpontaneousDisorder on April 03, 2013, 10:36:49 AM

>Stable price

>bitcoin

AHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHH ahAHAHAHhahaHhaH *breath* AHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHH ahAHAHAHhahaHhaH Wink

Okay okay, short term stable price Grin

BitcoinTate

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Quote from: ffernandex on April 03, 2013, 10:36:17 AM

using this log char, see the 26 weeks average has served as support and resistance for the trend. As of today, this average is around 30$. But if the prices stays high for a few days, it may easily rise to 50$. This should work as support for any major correction.

Nice graph... did your two year old make it? lol j/k

SpontaneousDisorder

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>Stable price

>bitcoin

AHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHH ahAHAHAHhahaHhaH *breath* AHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHH ahAHAHAHhahaHhaH Wink

ffernandex

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using this log char, see the 26 weeks average has served as support and resistance for the trend. As of today, this average is around 30$. But if the prices stays high for a few days, it may easily rise to 50$. This should work as support for any major correction.

mobodick

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Quote from: wopwop on April 03, 2013, 09:45:29 AM

price is not a bubble

grow up

LOL your so cute.
Of course it is a bubble.
It's the usual bitcoin tech bubble extravaganza.
It would have to sustain the growth for most of this year to not wind down to at least $40-ish.
Maybe you are confused by the exponential patterns in bitcoin price.

phantastisch

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Guys if you want out i offer a 1 : 1 Exchange into Bytecoins Grin

Ekaros

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Quote from: mobodick on April 03, 2013, 10:29:49 AM

Quote from: Ekaros on April 03, 2013, 09:44:36 AM

So, some of us think that this is an other bubble and it will not hold. So for those of you who agree on coming crash.

Where do you think we will end after the inevitable crash?

My personal guess would be around 20$... That is somewhat over the before, but under 30$ mark.

Too bad I don't have timeframe or can't offer anything much as price...

First of all i don't think it has to actually crash, but i think it will kindof deflate over a period of a few months.

Secondly i agree in general with your $20 but i'm not sure if the halfing of the reward changed the picture as this is the first real rally in this new situation. So i'd speculate that it may end up higher than $30, somewhere around $40 or so.

I do find under 50$ reasonable estimate. Also slow lowering of value is one possibility. Maybe even better than crash.

Topic: The pessimists - post crash stable price guesses? (Read 1935 times)