Topic: The price of Bitcoin, if it succeeds - page 2. (Read 1545 times)

Good and a stable price of 1million USD/btc

take a look:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2nXgK34HIM

The volatility is scary and is going to be scary for a while. I believe we're going to hit a tipping point somewhere around 10-20 million users, where downward volatility becomes more limited, but we're still going to see 10% drops as price advances strongly then retrenches a bit. Now at 100 million users, it sounds like a lot, but that might not be halfway into the "early majority" of the adoption curve, so there will be a lot of upward volatility remaining. However, the manipulations of traders should be becoming lost in the noise at this point.

Price guesstimates have a habit of running into the 10s of thousands for a handful of percentage penetration into any market. That causes credibility problems, it also encourages the get rich overnight thinking. But seriously it is very hard to do any solid reckoning that doesn't end up with a string of zeros after it. The Winkelvii 400 Billion Market cap prediction has been described as "very low bull" and even that seems inconceivable to a lot of people. Full bull, bitcoin cleans up 33% of every use it seems reasonable it might have at the minute (Not counting the more exotic uses soon to be enabled by Counterparty, colored coins, sidechains, etc) and the numbers go insane, really insane, market cap in trillions insane, it really causes a cognitive dissonance type reaction, where you just have to put the pen down, or close the spreadsheet and shake your head. So, lots of people will have a failure of imagination, a mental short circuit, even faced with "low bull" figures, and say "That's impossible! That can't happen!"

Anyway, people ask you for a price estimate, and you might mutter out $10,000, knowing in your heart that that is actually an unreasonable estimate for significant adoption, unreasonable to the extreme on the low side, because "reasonable" projections seem too damn unreasonable for you to get anything but laughed at.

I remember reading an article on Winklevosses where they predicted potential price of bitcoin if let's say bitcoin succeeded as a payment system capturing all the current credit card market share. It was a huge figure which I can't recall.

You see .. that's the issue mate , everyone look at the price and they  want to get rich between night & another just like that .
which is wrong ... a good price isn't what makes us rich but it's stable price . Let's say ~300$ for three months . that's stable then it's good . even if it was 1$ .
Most of people don't give a shit about Bitcoin being annonymus or fast or without fees they just want to become rich. *facepalm*
that's my opinion

There is a lot of talk about at what price BTC is supposed to be. This statements are mostly based on the past price of BTC.
E.g. "It can't be 1000 USD/BTC today since it was just 130 USD/BTC 2 years ago"
I think, that is a pretty bad way to look at it.
The best way, I can think of, is what has the price to be, when a certain amount of people use it. Imagine in 10 years 100 Million people worldwide are using Bitcoin in some way(I don't want to discuss, if that is a good estimate, since the title of the topic is "if it succeeds"). Looking at the current market cap of ~$ 3 billion, that is just not enough. That means that everybody can just use an equivalent of average 30 USD.
Any other suggestions on how to determine a good price?