Pages:
Author

Topic: The price of bitcoin will be >$12 on August 27th, 11pm PST - page 2. (Read 8070 times)

legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Total agree bets: 3.40
Total disagree bets: 13.26
Total weighted agree bets: 165.052
Total weighted disagree bets: 305.807

Your bets on this item
Agree for 1.10 (Weighted: 82.865)

I'm not really sure what this means.  How much will I make?

You have 82.865 of the total 165.052 weighted agree bets - that's 50.2%

>>> 82.865 / 165.052
0.5020538981654267

So you get 50.2% of the pot after the fees get taken out.  I can't access the site at the moment to check, but from memory the site gets 10% and the bet creator gets 10%, so I think you win 50.2% of 80% of 13.26 BTC, i.e. 5.32 BTC.

>>> 13.26 * 0.80 * 0.502
5.325216

(I get this error):

The site is down for me too. And the site and creator get 5% each of the losing bets, not 10. Thanks for doing the calculations for us lazy folk

OK, so around 5 BTC then:

>>> 13.26 * 0.90 * (82.865 / 165.052 + 1.10 / 3.40) / 2
4.926255610353101

Quote from: Yuhfhrh
Your bets on this item
Agree for 0.90 (Weighted: 76.463)

and for Yuhfhrh, you get 4.34 BTC

>>> 13.26 * 0.90 * (76.463 / 165.052 + 0.90 / 3.40) / 2
4.343808951118436
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
all admit, I'm now thinking I will indeed lose this bet. Sad
I guess I got too cocky with my other predictions.

Well a lot can happen in just a few hours, just a couple weeks ago:

hero member
Activity: 868
Merit: 1002
I think it's (your weighted/total (on correct side) weighted) * total disagree btc - good job!
420
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
oh...the high did break $12 so the agree has it and you'll win about 4x your money depending on how soon you did bet. theres 4x as many disagrees
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
all admit, I'm now thinking I will indeed lose this bet. Sad
I guess I got too cocky with my other predictions.
How much did you make off the one you just won?


Betting deadline is past. This statement is awaiting the event.
1 Bitcoin will be worth more than $12 on August 27th, 2012
Daily "High" value of 1 Bitcoin reported by MtGox will be above $12 on August 27th.

Info
Opening date: Aug. 23, 2012
Bet deadline: Aug. 26, 2012 end of day Eastern Time
Event date: Aug. 27, 2012 end of day Eastern Time
Category: Economics
Total agree bets: 3.40
Total disagree bets: 13.26
Total weighted agree bets: 165.052
Total weighted disagree bets: 305.807


Your bets on this item
Agree for 1.10 (Weighted: 82.865)




I'm not really sure what this means.  How much will I make?

Your bets on this item
Agree for 0.90 (Weighted: 76.463)

About the same as me lol I don't feel like doing the math
Edit: At least 4 btc for each of us I think
hero member
Activity: 1652
Merit: 569
Catalog Websites
all admit, I'm now thinking I will indeed lose this bet. Sad
I guess I got too cocky with my other predictions.
How much did you make off the one you just won?


Betting deadline is past. This statement is awaiting the event.
1 Bitcoin will be worth more than $12 on August 27th, 2012
Daily "High" value of 1 Bitcoin reported by MtGox will be above $12 on August 27th.

Info
Opening date: Aug. 23, 2012
Bet deadline: Aug. 26, 2012 end of day Eastern Time
Event date: Aug. 27, 2012 end of day Eastern Time
Category: Economics
Total agree bets: 3.40
Total disagree bets: 13.26
Total weighted agree bets: 165.052
Total weighted disagree bets: 305.807


Your bets on this item
Agree for 1.10 (Weighted: 82.865)




I'm not really sure what this means.  How much will I make?
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
The betsofbitco.in statment is sneakily/badly worded.

"1 Bitcoin will be worth more than $12 on August 27th, 2012

Daily "High" value of 1 Bitcoin reported by MtGox will be above $12 on August 27th."

So 12+ can be reached for the daily high and it can close below 12 for a win. Futhermore the "Daily High" is to be calculated by MtGox which uses UTC, whereas the betsofbitcoin statement utilizes EST. This is unfair because it creates a "day" that is longer than 24 hours.


http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=586

I submitted the bet stating at least 1 bitcoin would be traded above 12 dollars by aug 27, 11pm PST, but betsofbitcoin reworded it to make it sound better. It wasn't meant to be sneakily worded.


at least one bitconi in existence? of course it would be. or 1 bitcoin on MTGOX that everyone can verify easily?

1 bitcoin on mtgox, fixed my post, I was just typing in a hurry.
hero member
Activity: 868
Merit: 1002
all admit, I'm now thinking I will indeed lose this bet. Sad
I guess I got too cocky with my other predictions.
How much did you make off the one you just won?
420
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
The betsofbitco.in statment is sneakily/badly worded.

"1 Bitcoin will be worth more than $12 on August 27th, 2012

Daily "High" value of 1 Bitcoin reported by MtGox will be above $12 on August 27th."

So 12+ can be reached for the daily high and it can close below 12 for a win. Futhermore the "Daily High" is to be calculated by MtGox which uses UTC, whereas the betsofbitcoin statement utilizes EST. This is unfair because it creates a "day" that is longer than 24 hours.


http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=586

I submitted the bet stating at least 1 bitcoin would be traded above 12 dollars by aug 27, 11pm PST, but betsofbitcoin reworded it to make it sound better. It wasn't meant to be sneakily worded.


at least one bitconi in existence? of course it would be. or 1 bitcoin on MTGOX that everyone can verify easily?
hero member
Activity: 1652
Merit: 569
Catalog Websites
price just went down to $10.60    any takers?

I'll take it, what are the betting terms?  Grin
If the price is >$12 at 11pm PST today I win.
If the price is <$12 at 11pm PST today you win.
If the price =$12 at 11pm PST then we tie.

1 BTC bet?
deal

I hope you lose oh wise master kentrolla! :p
I'll admit, I'm now thinking I will indeed lose this bet. Sad
I guess I got too cocky with my other predictions.
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
HODL OR DIE
The betsofbitco.in statment is sneakily/badly worded.

"1 Bitcoin will be worth more than $12 on August 27th, 2012

Daily "High" value of 1 Bitcoin reported by MtGox will be above $12 on August 27th."

So 12+ can be reached for the daily high and it can close below 12 for a win. Futhermore the "Daily High" is to be calculated by MtGox which uses UTC, whereas the betsofbitcoin statement utilizes EST. This is unfair because it creates a "day" that is longer than 24 hours.


http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=586

I submitted the bet stating at least 1 bitcoin would be traded above 12 dollars by aug 27, 11pm PST, but betsofbitcoin reworded it to make it sound better. It wasn't meant to be sneakily worded.



Fair enough. But my concerns with the statement stand.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
price just went down to $10.60    any takers?

I'll take it, what are the betting terms?  Grin
If the price is >$12 at 11pm PST today I win.
If the price is <$12 at 11pm PST today you win.
If the price =$12 at 11pm PST then we tie.

1 BTC bet?
deal

I hope you lose oh wise master kentrolla! :p
hero member
Activity: 1652
Merit: 569
Catalog Websites
price just went down to $10.60    any takers?

I'll take it, what are the betting terms?  Grin
If the price is >$12 at 11pm PST today I win.
If the price is <$12 at 11pm PST today you win.
If the price =$12 at 11pm PST then we tie.

1 BTC bet?
deal
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
price just went down to $10.60    any takers?

I'll take it, what are the betting terms?  Grin
If the price is >$12 at 11pm PST today I win.
If the price is <$12 at 11pm PST today you win.
If the price =$12 at 11pm PST then we tie.

1 BTC bet?
hero member
Activity: 1652
Merit: 569
Catalog Websites
price just went down to $10.60    any takers?

I'll take it, what are the betting terms?  Grin
If the price is >$12 at 11pm PST today I win.
If the price is <$12 at 11pm PST today you win.
If the price =$12 at 11pm PST then we tie.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
The betsofbitco.in statment is sneakily/badly worded.

"1 Bitcoin will be worth more than $12 on August 27th, 2012

Daily "High" value of 1 Bitcoin reported by MtGox will be above $12 on August 27th."

So 12+ can be reached for the daily high and it can close below 12 for a win. Futhermore the "Daily High" is to be calculated by MtGox which uses UTC, whereas the betsofbitcoin statement utilizes EST. This is unfair because it creates a "day" that is longer than 24 hours.


http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=586

I submitted the bet stating at least 1 bitcoin would be traded on mt gox above 12 dollars by aug 27, 11pm PST, but betsofbitcoin reworded it to make it sound better. It wasn't meant to be sneakily worded.
hero member
Activity: 868
Merit: 1002
12$ was hit already, on 8-27 EST. Bet's over, and the agrees won.

legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
HODL OR DIE
The betsofbitco.in statment is sneakily/badly worded.

"1 Bitcoin will be worth more than $12 on August 27th, 2012

Daily "High" value of 1 Bitcoin reported by MtGox will be above $12 on August 27th."

So 12+ can be reached for the daily high and it can close below 12 for a win. Futhermore the "Daily High" is to be calculated by MtGox which uses UTC, whereas the betsofbitcoin statement utilizes EST. This is unfair because it creates a "day" that is longer than 24 hours.


http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=586



full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
price just went down to $10.60    any takers?

I'll take it, what are the betting terms?  Grin
420
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500


oat hay is right

ANNNNNND the disagrees have it:
http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=586
public is usually right
Pages:
Jump to: