The proof is in the pudding: chinese are participating en masse, price not up - page 2.

RationalSpeculator

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Quote from: BTC Books on May 08, 2013, 09:10:05 AM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 08, 2013, 06:31:05 AM

But howcome the amount of nodes did shot up a lot the past month while the price did not?

The amount of nodes shot up in the past week.

And they're downloading the blockchain right now.

Over Tor...

Is that so? How do you know?

That could be important difference indeed.

RationalSpeculator

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Quote from: Technomage on May 08, 2013, 08:15:38 AM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 08, 2013, 06:54:49 AM

Meaning if price goes down, like today, they will turn bearish and will buy less as originally planned.

I've noticed this effect first hand recently as I run the biggest exchange in Finland. My rational thought on price decreases is that it's a better buying opportunity (I should be buying more) but for many regular people the effect is the opposite. But I consider them sheep. Recently a lot of coins have moved from weak hands to strong hands which is nice to see.

That's very interesting! Thanks so much for sharing. So does that mean that you noticed that many new users that transferred fiat to the exchange didn't use it but instead kept it there are withdrew it again?

RationalSpeculator

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Quote from: BitcoinAshley on May 08, 2013, 08:44:46 AM

Op: How long were you running a node before you actually were able to get your hands on bitcoins?

I had 0.01 bitcoin (received from a friend) for a good 2-3 weeks in my wallet before I actually traded USD for bitcoins on an exchange.

It's different for everybody but most of those nodes are probably popping up out of curiousity for now.

For me it was the inverse. I first bought coins on an exchange and stored them in blockchain wallet.

Only later I figured running the software to support the network was important to.

I think we might assume that it's equally spread meaning the big amount of new nodes in China, also represent the big amount of new btc owners, that have bought already.

Many more may follow, but I'm not convinced they will be able to reignite the bubble.

The cheer amount of numbers we see popping up on the 3d globe in China represent a much lower purchasing power than the similar amount of nodes in the West.

BTC Books

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Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 08, 2013, 06:31:05 AM

But howcome the amount of nodes did shot up a lot the past month while the price did not?

The amount of nodes shot up in the past week.

And they're downloading the blockchain right now.

Over Tor...

Newscastix

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Quote from: cbeast on May 08, 2013, 08:47:19 AM

How did they get mining up so fast? Is China hoarding ASICs?

they produce them.

cbeast

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How did they get mining up so fast? Is China hoarding ASICs?

BitcoinAshley

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Op: How long were you running a node before you actually were able to get your hands on bitcoins?

I had 0.01 bitcoin (received from a friend) for a good 2-3 weeks in my wallet before I actually traded USD for bitcoins on an exchange.

It's different for everybody but most of those nodes are probably popping up out of curiousity for now.

ronaldlee0917

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Until btcchina grows much larger, the price there is largely influenced by MtGox and not vice versa.
Look at the fundamental, more people knowing Bitcoin is never a bad thing for Bitcoin.

Technomage

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Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 08, 2013, 06:54:49 AM

Meaning if price goes down, like today, they will turn bearish and will buy less as originally planned.

I've noticed this effect first hand recently as I run the biggest exchange in Finland. My rational thought on price decreases is that it's a better buying opportunity (I should be buying more) but for many regular people the effect is the opposite. But I consider them sheep. Recently a lot of coins have moved from weak hands to strong hands which is nice to see.

RationalSpeculator

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Quote from: Technomage on May 08, 2013, 06:36:28 AM

The people who react fast to this stuff will buy within 1-2 weeks. Those are the fast movers. Then we have bunch of people who will react to it in the coming months and years.

Most of the rebound from the chinese news is from western speculators. The usage and volume in China is increasing at a high rate, true, but the market is still controlled by western speculators.

Agreed, but let's never forget that media appearance, just like hashrate, and amount of posts here, is a lagging indicator of price.

First comes the bidding up, only then the media appearances. Once it hits the media, the rise is done already.

The loop you refer to is true. Media appearances add more people, but these people are not making the price. They will follow. Meaning if price goes down, like today, they will turn bearish and will buy less as originally planned.

RationalSpeculator

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Quote from: Zangelbert Bingledack on May 08, 2013, 06:11:55 AM

Mwahahahahaaaaa Grin

What's funny?

RationalSpeculator

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Quote from: jl2012 on May 08, 2013, 06:38:27 AM

The only legit way to determine the sentiment in China is the price gap between BTCChina and GOX. There is no gap right now, which means neutral.

During the Coinlab lawsuit crash, the price in BTCC was 10% higher than GOX

Thanks! Good argument.

RationalSpeculator

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Quote from: Technomage on May 08, 2013, 06:36:28 AM

The people who react fast to this stuff will buy within 1-2 weeks. Those are the fast movers. Then we have bunch of people who will react to it in the coming months and years.

Most of the rebound from the chinese news is from western speculators. The usage and volume in China is increasing at a high rate, true, but the market is still controlled by western speculators.

Indeed, and it will take another year before Chinese speculators have an influence on the price.

Just like the Cyprus story was total BS as an explanation for the rising price.

I also think price is set by the western speculators and western early adopters (many of whom foolishly believe stories like Cyprus people and Chinese people are bidding up the price).

RationalSpeculator

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Quote from: ManBearPig on May 08, 2013, 06:22:49 AM

Oh dear then it's all over isn't it? Well done for spotting that. I've now panic sold all my coins.

If you can only interpret this as bearish then I won't be taking any advice from you in the near future

No need to mock my argument.

My returns have been very good actually. I bought my stash around $12 in oktober 2012. Sold half my coins into the bubble (average selling price $180), bought most of them back into the crash (average buying price $70), and sold most of these again into the rebound (average selling price $140). I made more than a simple buy and hold.

I also gave valuable advise here - during the bubble - to be careful.

What about you?

jl2012

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The only legit way to determine the sentiment in China is the price gap between BTCChina and GOX. There is no gap right now, which means neutral.

During the Coinlab lawsuit crash, the price in BTCC was 10% higher than GOX

Technomage

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The people who react fast to this stuff will buy within 1-2 weeks. Those are the fast movers. Then we have bunch of people who will react to it in the coming months and years.

Most of the rebound from the chinese news is from western speculators. The usage and volume in China is increasing at a high rate, true, but the market is still controlled by western speculators.

RationalSpeculator

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Quote from: Missionary on May 08, 2013, 06:24:52 AM

Have you considered the time it takes for these things to take off?

First people have to be exposed enough to finally decide to jump on the train. After that comes figuring out how to do it. Then you have to wait for the bank transfers to process etc.

I would say that we could start evaluating the effects of china at the start of next week or so, at the earliest.

Agreed, it takes a lot of time before people jump in. But howcome the amount of nodes did shot up a lot the past month while the price did not?

I'm sceptical towards the china story because, well they are late to the party as usual. I remember how everyone went into 'emerging markets', and talk about 'china to the sky' at the end of the commodity and real estate bubble in 2005-2007. They added to the bubble, but certainly followed into the crash. There are no wonders coming from China, they are followers, not leaders, in my opinion.

This means that the bitcoin story being on national tv, is the same as it was a month ago in the West. Just a little later. Will at best keep the bubble from collapsing fast I think. As we are seeing today.

Let not hope prevail over empirical evidence!

Missionary

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Have you considered the time it takes for these things to take off?

First people have to be exposed enough to finally decide to jump on the train. After that comes figuring out how to do it. Then you have to wait for the bank transfers to process etc.

I would say that we could start evaluating the effects of china at the start of next week or so, at the earliest.

ManBearPig

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"Don't go in the trollbox, trollbox, trollbox"

Oh dear then it's all over isn't it? Well done for spotting that. I've now panic sold all my coins.

If you can only interpret this as bearish then I won't be taking any advice from you in the near future

Zangelbert Bingledack

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Mwahahahahaaaaa Grin

Topic: The proof is in the pudding: chinese are participating en masse, price not up - page 2. (Read 3519 times)