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Topic: The real bitcoin value - page 2. (Read 4480 times)

member
Activity: 98
Merit: 13
May 02, 2011, 04:43:17 PM
#10
There's no need to look at the last month.  If you want dollars, look at the exchanges, figure out how many Bitcoins you need, and request that many.  Then sell instantly on the exchange.  I've already written code for this and it's super trivial, even to do the trades (assuming mtgox is not being attacked).

Protip:  if you sell instantly, you are throwing a bit of money away.

Big buyers still exist, so set an 'ask' a bit above current market price, and wait for the next wave of buying.

You'll get more for your BTC, than if you had simply filled the X highest bids (selling instantly, at current market).

The current market tends to sit at support level X, blasting higher when a buyer appears, then settling back down to X.  If you sell instantly, filling current bids rather than waiting for the next big buyer, you will sell below X.
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 256
May 02, 2011, 04:39:49 PM
#9
I'm a fan of a 7 day moving average from the exchange, with many sites using that method, exchange rates should stabilize a bit.
legendary
Activity: 1750
Merit: 1007
May 02, 2011, 04:39:06 PM
#8
Merchants don't have to ride the coin at all. Make the sale, get the coins, sell the coins at the market rate. This can be automated easily. Ta-da you just used bitcoin as a payment method for whatever currency you want to hold. Now you don't have to worry about your currency increasing in value while you sleep.

Exactly what FreeMoney said.  I'm implementing a BitCoin currency option on my website.  The whole site switches into only displaying BTC prices, calculating the exchange rate at 1500 depth into the MtGox bids.  I go 1500 deep to get a stable snapshot of the current value, without being influenced at all by small (1-10 btc) transactions occurring on the exchange.  A 5 minute window before the page fetches new rates while browsing, and a 30 second window while in the checkout page.

Once they checkout, an automated MtGox exchange is performed to cashout the BitCoins for USD.  Unless 1500 bitcoins are sold in the 30 second window for exchange rate polling, I will always get the USD$ I'm expecting, regardless of market volatility.
full member
Activity: 182
Merit: 101
May 02, 2011, 04:36:27 PM
#7
With the markets being volatile as hell, it is a nightmare for people actually selling goods.

I came up with the following idea, but would like to know how other people think of this.

Some merchants already provide goods against a fixed price, some adjust against the markets quickly.
My focus is on the ones that provide against the fixed price. One could value their goods in USD and see
how many bitcoins they want for that. From that you can calculate a price per bitcoin. If you would average
all these rates (from the different merchants) out, you would IMHO get a more realistic price of how much
a bitcoin would be worth.

If more and more merchants would stick to that calculated price it would reduce its volatility even more and the
exchange markets might move towards that same value.

Every month the price would be recalculated depending on the trades that took place during that last month.

Is this doable and would this work?

There's no need to look at the last month.  If you want dollars, look at the exchanges, figure out how many Bitcoins you need, and request that many.  Then sell instantly on the exchange.  I've already written code for this and it's super trivial, even to do the trades (assuming mtgox is not being attacked).
full member
Activity: 183
Merit: 100
May 02, 2011, 04:08:25 PM
#6
In the end I think most merchants don't want bitcoins. They want their USD or other fiats.

It's nice to not have to know what merchants want or will want.  Maybe it's USD, maybe it's EUR, maybe it's food on the table or a yacht in the harbour.  Money is useful in helping merhcants obtain what they want.  Bitcoin is good as money.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1016
Strength in numbers
May 02, 2011, 04:07:39 PM
#5
Merchants don't have to ride the coin at all. Make the sale, get the coins, sell the coins at the market rate. This can be automated easily. Ta-da you just used bitcoin as a payment method for whatever currency you want to hold. Now you don't have to worry about your currency increasing in value while you sleep.
legendary
Activity: 1658
Merit: 1001
May 02, 2011, 04:03:43 PM
#4
I think the main difference between your idea and mine is the fact that yours tries to smooth out and control the volatility of the market, whereas mine thrives on it.  Merchants should see their investment in bitcoin for exactly what it is; a gamble.  Right now, I'd say it's a good gamble, as prices have risen astronomically since it's inception.  This can be used as a selling point for more merchants to try it.  I think tying it into a peerfinding system like (but not limited to) MtGox to allow them to pull their money out instantly is crucial. 
I'm really interested in the proliferation of this kind of technology, and I don't think I'm alone when I say the future viability of bitcoin may depend on these types of systems being in place.

In the end I think most merchants don't want bitcoins. They want their USD or other fiats. Bitcoin is just a way of payment they want to use, not a goal on itself. If prices for bitcoin rise a lot, they can also fall a lot. This would mean they would have to sell at the same time they get the bitcoins, which might not be possible at that time or the price has dropped within the time of start from purchase by the customer and having the bitcoins sold again on the market by the merchant. For expensive sales this could cause quite a loss for the merchant.
sr. member
Activity: 428
Merit: 254
May 02, 2011, 03:39:55 PM
#3
I've the same problem as BioMike. Not being a gambler, I would like to see stuffs stabilizing a bit. I have some idea about that but, basically, I agree with BioMike here.
newbie
Activity: 57
Merit: 0
May 02, 2011, 03:34:05 PM
#2
I had an idea not unlike this a few days ago that I think offers a similar, but different take on things.

Hey all. I had an idea that might be useful for merchants to start accepting bitcoins as money.

It's an api or standalone application that store owners can run to effectively turn their bitcoins into recordable cash, easily and beneficially, as well as tracking their growth.

The system would record how many bitcoins they got for what they sold vs how much the bitcoins were worth at the time of sale.  That way, when someone makes a purchase online, it's the for exact same amount as it would have sold for in USD (or other currency).

Easy to read graphs show them how much money they've got available in their wallet, and how much it's growing by riding the bitcoin economy. As they make more money, some of them are going to start buying things with bitcoin, and the whole goods/services economy would experience the rapid growth it desperately needs.

Let's say you could order groceries, or electronics, and instead of paypal, you'd choose something like "bitpal", that would accept the bitcoins, alert the merchant that an order had come in, and logged the transaction at the highest bid (taking depth of bids into acct) in USD.  The merchant would then have control over when they cash out. They could simply get their money from a market like mtgox (but not limited to mtgox) right then, or they can save it and see if it grows in value.  It could be advertised as a method of deflationary insurance.  If USD goes bottom up, at least your company has made an investment in a currency that operates with different rules.  This would mean that bitcoin could potentially move into the mainstream with an economically viable purpose.

I think as long as store owners can easily track their money, they're going to be more open about using a service that offers a very positive track record in valuation.  It's got to be a standalone, easy to use application. These are business owners, not computer nerds.  As far as scalability goes, I think something like this used on a wide scale could make our economy even more valuable.

thoughts?

I think the main difference between your idea and mine is the fact that yours tries to smooth out and control the volatility of the market, whereas mine thrives on it.  Merchants should see their investment in bitcoin for exactly what it is; a gamble.  Right now, I'd say it's a good gamble, as prices have risen astronomically since it's inception.  This can be used as a selling point for more merchants to try it.  I think tying it into a peerfinding system like (but not limited to) MtGox to allow them to pull their money out instantly is crucial. 
I'm really interested in the proliferation of this kind of technology, and I don't think I'm alone when I say the future viability of bitcoin may depend on these types of systems being in place.
legendary
Activity: 1658
Merit: 1001
May 02, 2011, 03:24:10 PM
#1
With the markets being volatile as hell, it is a nightmare for people actually selling goods.

I came up with the following idea, but would like to know how other people think of this.

Some merchants already provide goods against a fixed price, some adjust against the markets quickly.
My focus is on the ones that provide against the fixed price. One could value their goods in USD and see
how many bitcoins they want for that. From that you can calculate a price per bitcoin. If you would average
all these rates (from the different merchants) out, you would IMHO get a more realistic price of how much
a bitcoin would be worth.

If more and more merchants would stick to that calculated price it would reduce its volatility even more and the
exchange markets might move towards that same value.

Every month the price would be recalculated depending on the trades that took place during that last month.

Is this doable and would this work?
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