Topic: The recovery in one picture, or: why bulls shouldn't salivate too much yet - page 2. (Read 3152 times)
June 18, 2014, 04:24:33 AM
The desire to buy will be driven by news that no TA is prepared for. Take Lawsky's bitlicense announcement, US exchanges, ETFs, and the inevitable EBay/Paypal integration for future examples.
June 18, 2014, 04:22:29 AM
And oda.krell is going to be called a perma-bear too! 
Correct observation about the reluctance to sell. Compared with the early March peak of 710$, the 681$ peak
saw about 10k less asks, but also 15M$ less in bids. So it appears Bistamp has been losing a lot of market share,
or is this the effect of the decoupling with BFX? Also on the 15m chart it looks like someone is pumping with
~1K BTC buys and then sells in small chunks at the top of the local uptrend he created.
Correct observation about the reluctance to sell. Compared with the early March peak of 710$, the 681$ peak
saw about 10k less asks, but also 15M$ less in bids. So it appears Bistamp has been losing a lot of market share,
or is this the effect of the decoupling with BFX? Also on the 15m chart it looks like someone is pumping with
~1K BTC buys and then sells in small chunks at the top of the local uptrend he created.
June 18, 2014, 04:19:22 AM
It seems 100& natural to me.
Whales wanted to keep the price down as long as we were inside the huge bearish triangle. As soon as we had to get out of it, they all figured: no point in keeping the price down anymore. Same thing with any other player that was more and more reluctant to sell.
The intent of these whales was also to egg the market in opening shorts after shorts, and then squeezing the hell out of them (looking at Bitfinex USD and BTC SWAPs that is very clear).
I'm guessing the real panic buys were not there because big players were waiting on the sidelines (still a lot of fiat they accumulated from the bear market) for more confirmations (such as the traditional pre-bubble crash (15-20% drop)).
They have these confirmations now, yet they are not really panic buying. I think this is because of the Silk Road coins auction still in the air, a lot of FUD around that event.
I think very soon after June the 27th we will have a more definite push in the right direction.
Whales wanted to keep the price down as long as we were inside the huge bearish triangle. As soon as we had to get out of it, they all figured: no point in keeping the price down anymore. Same thing with any other player that was more and more reluctant to sell.
The intent of these whales was also to egg the market in opening shorts after shorts, and then squeezing the hell out of them (looking at Bitfinex USD and BTC SWAPs that is very clear).
I'm guessing the real panic buys were not there because big players were waiting on the sidelines (still a lot of fiat they accumulated from the bear market) for more confirmations (such as the traditional pre-bubble crash (15-20% drop)).
They have these confirmations now, yet they are not really panic buying. I think this is because of the Silk Road coins auction still in the air, a lot of FUD around that event.
I think very soon after June the 27th we will have a more definite push in the right direction.
June 18, 2014, 03:58:08 AM
There it is: one picture to summarize why and how we got out of the bear valley in May. But also: why you shouldn't really expect price to reach the moon anytime soon.
Huh?
Oh, alright, I'll state the obvious: selling pressure declined, buying pressure is only up slightly. The order book history (I picked stamp) shows that pretty well. In other words, our recovery is - so far - driven mainly by the reluctance to sell, not by overwhelming desire to buy.
And that's okay for now. Just keep that in mind when we get near $700 again and you start feeling that urgent desire again to post pictures of rockets and moons.
(disclosure: I'm long. Will trade big enough swings should they arise, but I see more potential to the upside right now than to the downside. Just not that much upside potential, see above.)
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