Topic: the short of a lifetime (Read 4588 times)

i said

I am perfectly aware that if cost of holding a short > price change the shorts will lose money and the price dont need to go up for the short side to lose money just need to stay constant and the price it did stay constant from 17/09/2014 until Bitfinex started to send emails

Turns out you were wrong. The risk was a swap rate squeeze not a short squeeze.  You still haven't figured this out?

Reason why the mining contract should operate like a future contract where anyone can create without having to borrow. They only need to pay dividend.

Then the short squeeze tactics described above will not work.

why anyone still has a short after this post is still strange to me


I dont want to be extremely rude but those who are still short are not very smart some even send me private messages and asking why they got short squeezed (people on IRC and chatzy got me warning from day one if anyone lost money you fucking deserve it )

lets do this like for kinder-garden
I= people who went against the short size not need to be me

1. maximum contract available to short 10 contracts
2. I place a bid for 10 contracts at 1 BTC per contract
3. you short all the 10 contracts
4. now I have to spend 2 more BTC to squeeze you out so I place a bid for 1 contract at the price of 2 BTC/contract
5. now you got a margin call and lose money since I am the only one who can sell the contract for you to close your short I can sell it at 3 BTC/contract at this price the short loses are over 100%

so will anyone use 12 BTC to earn at least 10 BTC ? hell yeah

the pool have a maximum 3500 TH so even if Bitfinex add all the hashing power I will need 3502 BTC squeeze the short side and earn at least 3500 BTC  

the only way this type of contract can work is if the total short side is = to the total mined bitcoins = 13,39 millions so there is no way in hell for the bid/long side squeeze the short side


now what ?

if you made money on this contract take your money out just like precaution if bitfinex will reverse or cancel the contract  

if you lost money on this contract well you kinda deserve it, this is a type of exotic contract so you can argue in front of consumer protection that is not suited for you, (lol) but that's likely to be just a lose of time and you will have to take it in the ass  


next time when you have money to spend on garbage try http://nycgarbage.com/ i dont earn any money from that but is kinda cool to sell actual trash  

 

th1 dump begin 1 hour ago, now still chance to sell you th1 high

This is not margin selling with using swap, this is normal Exchange sell TH1, this mean big dump, i think 0.7 low


marketmaker trying to sell so much th1 what he can, then will dump prize to 0.7-0.8 i think
1.281 10 th1 looks like marketmaker buy order, sell into it if you dont want lost on flashdump

i predicting flash dump for th1 for something like 30-50 %,, 1.30 --->0.65-1 btc,
just like from 2--->1 and just like everytime one cex.io

good profits for a 24h short   

They started selling at around 2.0. You can see the trade history here (it is in json format).

They sold the first branch mostly with limit orders. The 'shady' second branch: they are still selling it. But from 1.9 to 1.2 it was virtually all market sell orders.

And, want to say this again, the shady sell started before the announcement. Not after, as they seems to imply in the announcement.

For that matter, how about selling 100 TH1 in the first tranch in a market that had no bid depth?
I'm speculating as it is possible that there was some bid depth - but I'm confused at to what price they sold the original 100 TH1.  Maybe they slowly released them as the initial price was very high.

Indeed. I was not commenting that price needed to be higher. Just that it is a bit shady to start selling 100 TH1 in a market that had a bid depth of 15 TH1 at the time, and then after the fact announce that 'we will sell shortly'.

With a 10% difficulty increase, someone calculated 1.15.  I'm not an expert on difficulty increases. It seems like anything from 5-30% is possible.  So the current 1.15 is a decent price, but I wouldn't risk it unless I knew that mining difficulty was going to slow down.

I'm guessing that the TH1 swap rate is going to drop to 10-20% APR - so you won't get significant income from that.  But if not, the extra swap revenue can increase the value of the TH1 contract.

The great thing about price discovery is that people are discovering that mining contract prices are inflated (by losing 30-40% of its value in one day).  Which isn't news to most people who know how to run a bitcoin mining calculator.  This is probably great for the "market", but I'm not sure about how selling over-priced mining contracts to its customers helps Bitfinex?

Price is at around 1.2 with very little market depth.

Anyone figure what the actual fair value the contract is at?

The fact is that knowing that 100TH1 were in existence one take a trading strategy. Then all of a sudden new TH1 swaps came out of nowhere, followed by sell offers that can't possibly be there. Then more market sells, all the while up to margin calling almost all longs. Then, and only then, the announcement came out. Its language say that they will add these TH1 in a while, but this is not what happened.

dumping more hashing power on the market? isn't this good for shorts?

So this thing is now worth more and I am going to get murdered on my short, suddenly?

Bitfinex dumped some more TH1. Apparently, they are declaring it only after the fact.
The dump started before the announcement was added. Also the extra swaps were added before the news release. Not fair, bitfinex. At all.

bad felling, I cant understand why is this

TH1 fell as low as 1.35 and is now around 1.4.  Unfortunately I missed out.  There is still a lack of details about what this actually is.

It's weird that there are only 37 TH1 swaps (on the stats page).  I think almost everyone should be offering for swap - or you lose 0.5-1%/day.

Also - is this a weird situation where the fact that you can lend out swaps at 1/day% will make the contract sell for more than it is worth (in terms of mining BTC)?

i almost want to create an account and get verified and all that to short this. almost.