Topic: The single digits believers thread (Read 4598 times)

It'll reach 0, it's just the matter of time.

That's not news those are events. Going from $5 to $6 was all over news. There is so much Bitcoin news, now we need cataclysmic events to drive people into action, the news is just oil in the cooking pan.

You propose that if say... Spain went the same way as Cypress that we would not see a jump in price or inversely if Bitcoin was made illegal and the US based exchanged were shutdown?

That doesn't seem deluded at all 

The market doesn't care about news.

Penny for your thoughts?

 

Market is too bullish right now. Only thing that will stop the rally is catastrophic news.

Single digits.....yes.

Ok, where to start...

First off, in your first paragraph you talk about the volatility being because of manipulators, and then in the second paragraph you talk about how it is a free market with no regulation or Manipulation

Mixed signals there.

But a lot of regulation is meant to smooth out volatility, and make it harder to manipulate the market. It still happens, and often times the regulations end up going too far and just add more pointless work. But that is just a symptom of pencil pushers making more work just to keep themselves employed and because they think if they can make a rule for everything, then they can control human behavior(Wrong, btw, but that is another rant for another time...)


Second, you say that bitcoin should be all about supply/demand, in other words 'So say we all!' there is nothing driving the price other than personal opinions, no outside factors at all. Which increases the volatility and leads to the massive swings we have seen, and will always see out of bitcoin in its current form.


Third, you cant just throw out every traditional technical analysis tool just because of bitcoin. A lot of those tools are based on human behavior and that isnt going to change just because bitcoin showed up to the party.


And last but not least, no one really knows what ASIC will do. It will make the difficulty skyrocket yes. The higher difficulty will increase safety against a 51% attack, but it will do nothing to stop people from manipulating the price of bitcoins what so ever. Meaning there will still be the crazy volatility.

But, when people that are only mining on a gpu get shut down because of the difficulty spike, will they continue using bitcoins, or will they just wash their hands of it? How many people are going to be willing to buy a ASIC farm just to support the bitcoin network.
If the mob starts buying dedicated ASIC hardware it will likely signal that bitcoin is around to stay, If only a select few buy massive amounts, it could well signal the end of bitcoin. The whole point of bitcoin is that no one owns it. If a relatively small group owns all the hashing power, the point is lost. And instead of the gov owning the system, it becomes owned by farm operators.

In other words, ASIC could end up killing bitcoin. Or it might make it a lasting thing. No one really knows.


And lets not even bring up the fraud aspect. (scammer tags get thrown around almost daily on these forums it seems like )


Anyways... Too many people on these forums seem to think fiat is simply evil and should be entirely abolished. They seem to thrive on the idea of tearing down the system for fun. Or ""Rebelling against the Machine!".
*Snickers*
Simply put, it will never happen. Both fiat, and bitcoin have their own respective niches. Both have their benefits and flaws, and people just need to understand both.

BTC value should be determined by supply and demand. And all we know how hard to mine BTC nowadays. Recent price volatility is normal, because manipulators (sharks) enter the town and playing with the small guys. It was so clear that this sell-off was coming: (slate article written on just before the big sell-off, Forbes and Time enter the scene, CNN almost every 12 hours written new piece of article about BTC).

I think we're entering more normal phase now. Maybe a first time in history (at least for last 100 years) people are experiencing a free market. Really free: no regulation, no manipulation, no fraud. These new generation of ASICs will change many parameters especially difficulty parameter which is very important for small guys. I mean small guys as GPU miners no matter how big their rigs, they are still small when compared to cheapest ASIC design.

Another important point have to be remembered all the time: BTC and other cryptocurrencies and its markets will change all traditional technical analysis tools of old financial community. The terminology should be modified. Example: Overbought, oversold, profit taking, etc... These words don't make too much sense to BTC and its friends. But hoarding is a word should be carefully analysed.

gold, silver, palladium, are all sort of in the same group as bitcoins to me.  People gambling on where the value of an item is going to go. Don't get me wrong, people do it on everything, but some items have some intrinsic value associated with them that helps to stabilize the price, and the first three you listed don't fall into that category to me.

But, looking at a 10 year chart, gold is fairly steady, silver a bit less. Palladium has spikes a bit more common with bitcoin, but it cant even come close to matching the swings/volatility bitcoin has gone thru.
Gasoline is fairly controlled and regulated, don't fool yourself there

bread, wheat, water are all much more tangible, and while i cant find charts for them as easy, i would be shocked if they shifted value more than 50% or so in the span of months without some massive storm/whatnot disrupting the system, and prices will return to the norm relatively fast after something disrupts the system.

That is the difference at the end of the day, bitcoins are entirely intangible. The value is strictly determined by what people are willing to pay. Much more of a "So says we all!" sort of thing, which leads to swings from 2 to 260's, and back down to 50's in months. That works out to be a what, 13,000% growth, then crashing down to 20% of peak value over a week, and i doubt we have bottomed out quite yet.

I dare you to find anything else that has the same volatility as bitcoin

The price will never follow the exact same pattern, the market will internalize any collective memory and will try to outsmart it. That being said, usually the downward slope of the bubble is long and drawn-out, as you can see in the "Post-bubble 1" chart above. This is basic psychology: on one hand people really want to believe the highs were based on fundamentals and they don't let go cheap of something that is "worth" 250$, on the other hand if they bought at $100+ the don't want to acknowledge their loss. I submit to you exhibits B and C, the Japanese real estate and stock bubbles:



The NIKKEY during the same period:


So no, I don't think were gonna see single digits for years to come.

No people look at bitcoin as a steady cash cow. Mining them at extremely low running cost and dumping them at whatever price they can get on the day. As long as you go to work and have the dough to pay for the coins they will exchange for fiat.

You like charts and reality? Just check out historical charts on any fiat money to gold, silver, palladium or whatever like bread, gasoline, wheat, water.... should I continue? Is this crap talk?

Your volatility concern deserve attention. I'm with you on this.

I don't believe it will, but I'm sure as hell hope it does... I wanna buy some coins dammit!

i was expecting single digits until around the 120-140 mark on the way up. But with the current difficulty, and how high it went before crashing, my bet is it will go down to the 20's.

More people will want to get in at the ground floor before the next bubble and that will keep the price up.

As far as if we will ever hit single digits. Of course, the only question is when be it 40 years from now when something better pops up, or something breaks the system tomorrow... Who knows... *Shrugs*


But yeah, people like to talk crap about fiat... But the dollar in my pocket doesn't shift value from 2 to 260, and then crash back down into the 50's in the span of months.

I don't have to worry about going from a car payment, to buying crackers for dinner over-night.  Bitcoin at this point is just like buying a lottery ticket. "Will i win big? Or will i wallpaper my bathroom with loser tickets?!?"

Way to go, be wise mine cheap and milk the cash cow for what its worth. It the price is 20 or 200 does not matter (treat it as bankers bonus if its higher) As long as somebody buys it and you mine economical (some have zero running cost mind you) you make good money today and hopefully for a long time to come.

Possible but $25 to $34 is more likely, and not right away this will take time.