The total BTC balance on exchanges continuously decreasing since 2020

zopim savo

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Quote from: zopim savo on April 28, 2021, 11:01:31 AM

The total BTC balance on exchanges continuously decreasing since 2020. This shows that investors are withdrawing and storing their BTC in hardware and cold wallets. They are accumulating BTC for long term. Less BTC on exchanges means less selling pressure.

The same pattern is find after the 2016 halving and we see a long bull run until Dec 2017.

We are still far away from the bull run top. Hold some BTC for long term.

There are rumours that Facebook holding Bitcoin. The news is covered by Fox Business. Facebook may announce the buying or holding if BTC anytime and that will pump BTC. Everyone wants to get their hands on BTC, we are too early. HODL and enjoy the bull run.

https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1387444415120265222?s=20

Bitcoin quick Update

BTC again trying to break the resistance area of $58,400. There are a lot of positive news. We are expecting a breakout this weekend or most probably on Monday. The breakout will turn the market sentiments bullish. BTC is Trading in the range for a long time and on-chain analysis shows a lot of BTC moved out from exchanges. The breakout will be huge. Hold your BTC bags and enjoy the rally.

wxa7115

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Quote from: virasog on May 02, 2021, 04:54:38 AM

Quote from: zopim savo on April 28, 2021, 11:01:31 AM

The total BTC balance on exchanges continuously decreasing since 2020. This shows that investors are withdrawing and storing their BTC in hardware and cold wallets. They are accumulating BTC for long term. Less BTC on exchanges means less selling pressure.

I have been following this on-chain metric for the last few weeks / months and people prefer to keep their bitcoin out of exchanges. There is a lot of bitcoin outflow from the exchanges which means that people are not willing to sell their bitcoins. The buying pressure will increase at exchanges and therefore bitcoin price will continue to rise.

This is an incredibly bullish sign, after all it means that people are not willing to sell their coins anytime soon and prefer their coins to be in wallets they control, this is is good as exchanges were becoming too powerful and while this is only going to limit their power a little bit, it is a step on the right direction.

What I wonder is what will happen if the price goes down? Will we see those coins making a comeback to the exchange or will people prefer to keep their coins no matter what? Because in the case it is the latter not only this will slow down any crash but it will help us recover from it a lot quicker.

rahmatrf331

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Quote from: adaseb on May 03, 2021, 12:09:26 AM

What will be interesting is what will happen when BTC balance on exchanges will start an uptrend. Obviously when that happens it means that a top either occured or will occur however the question is when will that happen with relative balance on exchanges increasing.

Someone did an analysis of this last cycle and I think the balance on exchanges started to increase and it was still far off from the top of $20K. So hence this isn't always an accurate indicator. When BTC hits $100K most likely more people will deposit into exchanges to take profit, but it doesn't mean $100K will be the top.

I find it very interesting, sometimes we have to learn SWOT in trade terms, where the gaps in the issues that are bubbling up in the media will be the biggest chance that will happen in a short time.
As you said earlier, when investors take profits through the exchange, maybe the future price of bitcoin will not only reach $ 100,000, it will exceed that.

Fundamentals Of

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Quote from: lixer on May 06, 2021, 04:34:02 PM

Quote from: Fundamentals Of on May 06, 2021, 08:31:59 AM

Bitcoin is very bullish since late last year until today. This bullish season may even extend up to the last day of the year. There are so many great news about Bitcoin adoption. Not to mention that there are also very popular billionaires and financial figures who are already hopping into the bandwagon. And this is just the beginning.

I think Facebook is not the only company that is suspected to have already accumulated Bitcoin. There are probably more of them that are also hoarding in silence.

Many many companies definitely collected bunch of bitcoin I am sure of that. I know that they have to declare it for the shareholders otherwise its a SEC violation however it could be done over person and nobody has to know about that. Think about it this way, what if Mark Zuckerberg bought some? Or Jeff Bezos as well? These are super wealthy people with a lot of money so they may have done something like this and we may have never heard of it before.

This is why I think its quite obvious that we should not be focusing on the companies alone, we should be focusing on the people as well and I believe it could be something that is personal and individuals who are super rich may have bought some. Billions of dollars of bitcoin may have been purchased between these people, buying 50-100 million dollars worth of bitcoin is not that difficult for them and not that expensive, 40-50 rich people like that and we got ourselves billions of dollars.

There is a higher probability of individuals secretly hoarding Bitcoins rather than companies. I highly suspect that there are so many individuals who are really convinced of the future of Bitcoin that made purchases on their level. It is hard to convince the entire company to buy Bitcoin. Bitcoin is almost treated as an illegal currency. But if a person is really convinced of Bitcoin, he will do the buying himself alone and in silence. Mark Zuckerberg may be one of them.

lixer

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Quote from: Fundamentals Of on May 06, 2021, 08:31:59 AM

Bitcoin is very bullish since late last year until today. This bullish season may even extend up to the last day of the year. There are so many great news about Bitcoin adoption. Not to mention that there are also very popular billionaires and financial figures who are already hopping into the bandwagon. And this is just the beginning.

I think Facebook is not the only company that is suspected to have already accumulated Bitcoin. There are probably more of them that are also hoarding in silence.

Many many companies definitely collected bunch of bitcoin I am sure of that. I know that they have to declare it for the shareholders otherwise its a SEC violation however it could be done over person and nobody has to know about that. Think about it this way, what if Mark Zuckerberg bought some? Or Jeff Bezos as well? These are super wealthy people with a lot of money so they may have done something like this and we may have never heard of it before.

This is why I think its quite obvious that we should not be focusing on the companies alone, we should be focusing on the people as well and I believe it could be something that is personal and individuals who are super rich may have bought some. Billions of dollars of bitcoin may have been purchased between these people, buying 50-100 million dollars worth of bitcoin is not that difficult for them and not that expensive, 40-50 rich people like that and we got ourselves billions of dollars.

beerlover

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Quote from: zopim savo on April 28, 2021, 11:01:31 AM

The total BTC balance on exchanges continuously decreasing since 2020. This shows that investors are withdrawing and storing their BTC in hardware and cold wallets. They are accumulating BTC for long term. Less BTC on exchanges means less selling pressure.

That must be a right interpretation of level of bitcoins are being left with exchanges. Moreover, there are lots of initiative on not using exchanges and web wallets for security reasons which might be having some impact in long run why we are not seeing exchange BTC balances are diminishing still anyway people prefer to hold on their mobile/computer/paper/hardware wallets which must be a good thing in all sense.

Quote from: Fundamentals Of on May 06, 2021, 08:31:59 AM

I think Facebook is not the only company that is suspected to have already accumulated Bitcoin. There are probably more of them that are also hoarding in silence.

There are less possibilities as awareness on bitcoin's future must be very low in last 3 to 5 years but if they have planned after bitcoin setting ATH around $20K then they might be holding very low mount given that BTC prices and their level of risk taking money for a secret investments.

Fundamentals Of

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Bitcoin is very bullish since late last year until today. This bullish season may even extend up to the last day of the year. There are so many great news about Bitcoin adoption. Not to mention that there are also very popular billionaires and financial figures who are already hopping into the bandwagon. And this is just the beginning.

I think Facebook is not the only company that is suspected to have already accumulated Bitcoin. There are probably more of them that are also hoarding in silence.

inoes

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The amount of bitcoin supply decreases is natural, we know that crypto currency continues to grow from time to time. there are so many exchanges born that they also need a supply of bitcoin in their wallets. there are also several scam projects that eliminate a number of bitcoins that should have been traded. so out there there are still many people / institutions that hold bitcoin who knows how long they will sell it. so always get used to take profit to keep yourself from losses

buwaytress

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Noticed this even on localbitcoins where I first started trading in 2016. You'd get all these traders with 100 BTC+ volumes only a handful of trades. Myself to reach 10 BTC took a lot of trades, and today you'll see a veteran regular who might have started out same as me with 500 BTC+ after 3/4 years.

Anyone starting out now in most countries would be considered a heavy volume guy just to hit 1 BTC volume!

aoluain

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Quote from: DeathAngel on April 28, 2021, 04:13:59 PM

I keep seeing these things on Twitter which charts detailing the amount of coins on exchanges decreasing. Tye price isn’t going up now though is it, we are 10% down from the ATH. Why isn’t the price going up if available supply is less?

I guess a lot of people are asking those questions?

The supply is less than approximately 12 months ago, less available on exchanges
and we keep hearing of institutional investors buying large amounts of Bitcoin which
means that more and more Bitcoin is stashed away and off the market.

Yet the price of Bitcoin is going sideways and trading around the mid 50's.

There is a lot of interest in Alt coins at the moment, ETH is finding new highs and
of course DOGE.... nothing more needs to be said there, so the attraction of the Alt's
is greater than Bitcoin - at the moment

udidrone

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If me not actively in trading, i prefer to hold coins in my wallet too. Maybe that is what people think especially if they really aim for holding although price start to increased. Because in condition like this, attacker sometimes really attack on exchanges and me don't want my money to stuck in a exchange when they get attacked.

coin-investor

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Quote from: herurist on April 28, 2021, 11:10:16 AM

a safe way as well as a concern if the wallet containing Bitcoin is lost, the secret word is not properly guarded. withdrawing Bitcoin from Exchange is a long-term goal. But what's the harm in keeping it on an exchange and not traded, is it at a loss? and if it is lost it will be the responsibility of the exchange, but if it is stored in a hard wallet and is lost, only you are responsible.
so which one is more effective and safer when securing your Bitcoin?

I still opted to be responsible for my coins than depositing them on exchange and trust and pray that I can always access it and they will not get hacked, by holding my coins and responsible for coins I can consider myself a responsible holder of course I should be educated and well known on how to protect my wallet and my coins.

Shasha80

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Quote from: just_Alice on May 04, 2021, 06:41:22 PM

Quote from: sunsilk on May 02, 2021, 01:04:55 PM

Forget about rumors about Facebook holding bitcoin. That news was put in use by the media for them to have a coverage that has been awaited by its audience.

I've read an analysis that the bull run that we're seeing is just the start and really the comparison to 2016. Which means, the 2017 bull run hasn't arrived yet which might be until 2022 with most of those speculations.

I don't think it's wise to compare the market back in 2016 with today's situation. The Bitcoin market cap has increased substantially since then, therefore, the price is less volatile right now. The corrections can take longer, but they will be more lasting, so I don't think we're heading to the top of the bull run same as it was 4 years ago.
If we base our predictions on patterns in the past - then we should expect the price of $300k pretty soon, and I don't think that's happening in the nearest future.

We no longer need to compare what happened in 2017, because the bullrun this year is much different now. In 2021 Bitcoin is more stable
and volatile is not that high. Perhaps with many large companies investing long-term in Bitcoin, it makes the Bitcoin price less volatile.
Moreover, this year the bullrun has run longer, and there is a possibility that it could be throughout the year. Therefore many Bitcoin holders
do not intend to sell their Bitcoin in the near future, even though now the price of Bitcoin is very high. Because they believe the price of Bitcoin
will rise even higher at the end of 2021.

just_Alice

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Quote from: sunsilk on May 02, 2021, 01:04:55 PM

Forget about rumors about Facebook holding bitcoin. That news was put in use by the media for them to have a coverage that has been awaited by its audience.

I've read an analysis that the bull run that we're seeing is just the start and really the comparison to 2016. Which means, the 2017 bull run hasn't arrived yet which might be until 2022 with most of those speculations.

I don't think it's wise to compare the market back in 2016 with today's situation. The Bitcoin market cap has increased substantially since then, therefore, the price is less volatile right now. The corrections can take longer, but they will be more lasting, so I don't think we're heading to the top of the bull run same as it was 4 years ago.
If we base our predictions on patterns in the past - then we should expect the price of $300k pretty soon, and I don't think that's happening in the nearest future.

sunsilk

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Quote from: 7788bitcoin on May 02, 2021, 06:37:18 PM

Quote from: sunsilk on May 02, 2021, 01:04:55 PM

Forget about rumors about Facebook holding bitcoin. That news was put in use by the media for them to have a coverage that has been awaited by its audience.

We have clarity regrading the news about Facebook holding any cryptocurrency. They never filed anything to SEC which means the news was just rumors to attract investors and audience.

It's just a rumor and they can hide it or reveal anytime soon. But if the source isn't them, there's no need to be interested more than what they're doing such as the project Libra that they've already started.

Quote from: 7788bitcoin on May 02, 2021, 06:37:18 PM

Quote from: sunsilk on May 02, 2021, 01:04:55 PM

I've read an analysis that the bull run that we're seeing is just the start and really the comparison to 2016. Which means, the 2017 bull run hasn't arrived yet which might be until 2022 with most of those speculations.

What analysis is that which that says that the 2017 bull run will be back in 2022 Cheesy

.The time it took after the halving was much larger in the past but after two rallies huge investors and everyone in the market was aware that the market is going to rally and everyone started to invest much earlier than the halving and so is the reason we had the rally much earlier than the last two times.

It's like history repeating itself and the timeframe that has been set which could also happen by the given date. It's not about 2017 is going to happen in 2022, but what happened on 2017 hasn't happened yet and could happen by that said year.

ene1980

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Quote from: LogitechMouse on May 02, 2021, 09:09:07 PM

I want to agree this at some points but I don't think that "everyone" really knows the risk of holding Bitcoin into an exchange.

Any major investor will go through the history of the market and will very well know that they cannot trust any exchange for holding the coins for the long term. I usually hold the coins only if i am planning to book my profit if not i will not have the confidence to hold them in any exchange and everyone should be aware of the risk as well.

adaseb

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What will be interesting is what will happen when BTC balance on exchanges will start an uptrend. Obviously when that happens it means that a top either occured or will occur however the question is when will that happen with relative balance on exchanges increasing.

Someone did an analysis of this last cycle and I think the balance on exchanges started to increase and it was still far off from the top of $20K. So hence this isn't always an accurate indicator. When BTC hits $100K most likely more people will deposit into exchanges to take profit, but it doesn't mean $100K will be the top.

lablab03

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Quote from: zopim savo on April 28, 2021, 11:01:31 AM

The total BTC balance on exchanges continuously decreasing since 2020. This shows that investors are withdrawing and storing their BTC in hardware and cold wallets. They are accumulating BTC for long term. Less BTC on exchanges means less selling pressure.

Of course it's necessary incase what will happen to the exchanges where your btc is stored. As the matter of fact mostly didn't last long and turn into scam exchange, so its better to withdraw and put it into hardwer wallet or anywhere where you can assure it's realy safe... Especially now which is the fee is too high and keep increasing, for me in view there is a possibility some of the exchange will collapse without knowing because amount of holder is gradually decreasing also in on this situation.

LogitechMouse

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Quote from: The Cryptovator on April 28, 2021, 12:39:33 PM

Everyone knows about the risk of holding Bitcoin to an Exchange.

I want to agree this at some points but I don't think that "everyone" really knows the risk of holding Bitcoin into an exchange.
2 possible reasons why some traders especially newbies are just keeping it on an exchange is:

1. They don't know the risk of it.
2. They are just storing it there so that they can sell it immediately when they saw profit that they are comfortable with.

Either all, this is true because there are many institutions and some average Joes who are buying Bitcoin and just keeping it. They see Bitcoin as a store of value thus they are keeping it making the total BTC balance on exchanges decreasing. On the other hand, when the bull market has ended and shifted into the bear market for sure this trend will shift too. For sure there are many Bitcoin holders out there who will sell at least a portion of their Bitcoin holdings.

GreatArkansas

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Quote from: zopim savo on April 28, 2021, 11:01:31 AM

The total BTC balance on exchanges continuously decreasing since 2020. This shows that investors are withdrawing and storing their BTC in hardware and cold wallets. They are accumulating BTC for long term. Less BTC on exchanges means less selling pressure.
(......)

Yep, less selling pressure is one of the reasons we can consider why Bitcoin balances for some exchanges are slowly going down.
We can also consider that whales are somehow manipulating the inflows/outflows of exchanges, so onchain analysis for exchange inflows/outflows will change, but this is for the bitter scenario for being a Bitcoin bullish Cheesy

This is already proven from previous bitcoin bull run, exchange inflows slowly going down and exchange outflows is increasing for exchanges, a very bullish scenario for Bitcoin.

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