Topic: The truth (Read 1990 times)

the volume has really dried up now, this is the calm before the storm

yes, but this has short term bearish implication, as there becomes new ways to "cash out", often without having to worry about capital gains.

WHat we need is merchant addoption, merchant adoption is literally everything.

Supply and demand, literally everything.

I have  thought along similar lines in the past..even if we quibble about actual number of coins lost (not 30% but 20% or 10%) and the dollar volumes..currently at $50 million a day and not $20 million.... it is very likely that future demand and usage will increase over and above the increase in supply from mining and those selling after they reach their price "target".

- Businesses like bitpay have a target of a  33 fold increase in merchants by end of 2016 from 35k to 1 million.

- Xapo  not even 1 month old, has potential to have 1 million business/travelers use their card within 12 months ( as barring $/bitcoin exchange rate fluctuations it is cheaper to use for foreign currency transactions compared to traditional cards and much cheaper if the general trend of bitcoin price is upward ( which it still is))

- The un-banked/under banked = 2.5 Billion. These people are interested in having card options as its easier and cheaper for many products to buy using cards on line ..just capture 1 % of that market of which 88 million are in the USA

- remittance sector..$450 billion / yr....current rates using bitcoin are about 2-3% total to remit abroad including echange rate conversion...traditional services are 3- 10 % but in parts of Africa its 30% +..a large part of that market can move to bitcoin over time.

Payment sector like dish/utilities is massive.

http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/financial_services/counting_the_worlds_unbanked

http://www.forbes.com/sites/darden/2014/06/05/fighting-financial-exclusion-how-to-serve-88-million-americans-who-have-no-bank/

Add all that together and it is huge..its not here yet but so many industries are working toward that and will succeed and at the current pace it will be soon.

You are right i didn't pay close attention to the number. It is not "technically" oversold but this is a logarithmic trend and it has bounced off of this 50 level as it did twice before, so for BTC it is "relatively" oversold since that is the lowest it has been historically

You can't actually see from that picture where the 20 and 30 lines are. It doesn't look like it's passed 30 yet, so no oversold. And some consider 20/80 to be better than 30/70, depending on time frame.

Are you serious? Did you just now read about RSI?
Below 50 only means the bear market is getting stronger. Look at the highs! It can become embedded for a long time not to mention that below 50 is not "technically" oversold until it breaks 30... I'd like to see a bounce off of 30 or a break above and a subsequent bounce off 50 on the top side to say the RSI is in good standing.

RSI doesn't lie, bitcoin is officially and technically oversold

Edit: not technically but relatively oversold since scale stops at 50

You're assuming these coins haven't been lost.

High likelihood they have been.

I fantasize that Satoshi will release these coins in a democratic way (sms? mike hearn's passport thingy? facebook?)  when the time is right, thus giving the dollar a death kiss

Well, you made a nice argument with reasonable assumptions and comparisons. I don't firmly agree or disagree with anything you said, but it was nice to see someone engaging in a rational discussion in this sub. Unlike all the replies you got. Haha. What a shit hole this place is now.

Edit:
Perhaps the thread title was a little over the top, though. You're asking for it with that one.

Except Bill Gates spending every last Dollar he owns still won't cause the value of the USD to plummet.

It makes Satoshi like the Bill Gates of the Bitcoin world.

I hate that line so much. No, a massive % of the entire supply concentrated in the hands of one actor is not a "feature". Assuming we can trust Satoshi (ironic, eh?), it is at best "not a bug". That doesn't make it a feature. There is nothing good about this at all for a supposedly (hopefully someday) decentralized economy.

Nice article about the bitcoin scenario in this period, if the charts are right howlers are going to face a great winter time.

Also the number of btc "available for circulation" is a lot less than the market cap (due to lost lost wallets, hodlers, reserves, closed markets, etc...)

How many people would have mined 1 block only to give up? I would have to guess that those were (at least mostly) from one miner. Though I can't explain why they would separate them into individual wallets either. I thought I read that Satoshi coins were separated that exact way, so perhaps he has control over more than 1M BTC. In which case, I'm sure they aren't lost unless they were intentionally lost.

But the fact that those addresses have exactly 50 BTC each and they were never touched clearly suggests that at least a very good percentage of those 2 million BTC are actually lost (mined in the early days and forgotten)...

While I believe that there is a substantial amount of coins that are lost "forever", I also believe the actual percentage will get smaller with time. Back in the early days, people were much more careless because there was almost no value. These days, people are more careful about securing their coins because it would be a significant loss to lose even a few BTC.

And I also doubt that there are 2M BTC lost. Maybe immobile but not lost.