the ultimate inflection point | Bitcointalksearch.org

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: ManBearPig on April 22, 2013, 01:35:11 AM

5 hours no trades, price unaffected beyond an hour. Not a good day to draw conclusions from in my opinion.

Other than: attacks are back but we all know how to handle them.

agreed. there were a few attempted breakouts but the volume was much too low. i figured monday money would come in, but monday morning and afternoon were very quiet. nothing happened at all, and the triangle was invalidated.

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: Miz4r on April 22, 2013, 06:51:27 PM

So, it's Monday now and it still looks pretty damn bullish to me. More bids keep coming in and sell orders are evaporating. I think it may take a day or two but that $130-135 resistance is going to slowly melt away like snow in the sun.

yes, i'm pleasantly surprised Cheesy

i'm prepared for both, and it's pretty difficult to make calls on this timescale, especially with the indicators mostly neutral. we haven't touched it yet, but we'd better break through when we test it again. it's not just about the order book, it's also a key psychological resistance as well as a physical resistance set by the shape of the crash. if we fail to break that resistance again, it's not gonna look bullish anymore.

the full bid side really just means anyone who wants to take profit on coins they picked up at $50 is gonna have a good time Wink

Miz4r

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1000

Quote from: arepo on April 21, 2013, 07:52:34 PM

Quote from: Miz4r on April 21, 2013, 07:10:05 PM

It's weekend, you can't expect those resistances to break with these kind of volumes. Tomorrow we will know more, until then it's anyone's guess.

price exhibits the same patterns, just on lower volume.

it's harder to confirm patterns in this setting, but the price is following my personal trading model very nicely, and i stand by the failure to break the resistances as a signal to relieve selling pressure. the market is short-term overbought, and we are, as i projected 12 hours ago, sliding into a low-volume downtrend. there even seems to be a little bear pennant forming right now, which is likely to break down.

-===-

-===-

i'd say the picture is still bearish for monday, specifically, but im saving the good stuff for the newsletter Wink

So, it's Monday now and it still looks pretty damn bullish to me. More bids keep coming in and sell orders are evaporating. I think it may take a day or two but that $130-135 resistance is going to slowly melt away like snow in the sun.

ManBearPig

sr. member

Activity: 350

Merit: 250

"Don't go in the trollbox, trollbox, trollbox"

5 hours no trades, price unaffected beyond an hour. Not a good day to draw conclusions from in my opinion.

Other than: attacks are back but we all know how to handle them.

wonkytonky

sr. member

Activity: 411

Merit: 250

for the first time i'm bearish too .. i have set a buy, a bit below 100$

Frozenlock

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Report? Where? How much?

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: wobber on April 21, 2013, 10:59:45 PM

How bearish? 50?

no, i've revised my targets since the ones i sent you. they will be included in the report i'm finishing now. i can't really post targets publicly, it has confounding effects.

wobber

legendary

Activity: 1064

Merit: 1001

How bearish? 50?

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: humanitee on April 21, 2013, 09:55:28 PM

We're coming out of the weekend.

Up.

we'll most likely retest the $130-$135 resistance for that reason exactly, but it will hold. so this triangle (because it is on such a small scale) may indeed break up, but when we fail to break over that critical resistance the picture will become very bearish.

humanitee

hero member

Activity: 1302

Merit: 502

We're coming out of the weekend.

Up.

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

and the indicative decreasing volume, for rigor:

-===-

-===-

it was too difficult to see in the microscale chart above.

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

bearish pennant shape from above just about to close...

UP or DOWN?

YOU CHOOSE!

<1 hr

-===-

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: michaelGedi on April 21, 2013, 08:07:28 PM

Quote from: arepo on April 21, 2013, 07:52:34 PM

i'd say the picture is still bearish for monday, specifically, but im saving the good stuff for the newsletter Wink

interesting - thanks.

newsletter?

i'm currently in the final stage of data collection for a "Price Analysis and Projection" report. it's sketched out but i'm waiting for a particular confirmation before i am confident enough in my price model to publish it.

after that, i'm going to make it available for a bounty on the forums. keep an eye out, ETA 8 hours

michaelGedi

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

"to be or not to be, that is the bitcoin"

Quote from: arepo on April 21, 2013, 07:52:34 PM

Quote from: Miz4r on April 21, 2013, 07:10:05 PM

It's weekend, you can't expect those resistances to break with these kind of volumes. Tomorrow we will know more, until then it's anyone's guess.

price exhibits the same patterns, just on lower volume.

it's harder to confirm patterns in this setting, but the price is following my personal trading model very nicely, and i stand by the failure to break the resistances as a signal to relieve selling pressure. the market is short-term overbought, and we are, as i projected 12 hours ago, sliding into a low-volume downtrend. there even seems to be a little bear pennant forming right now, which is likely to break down.

-===-

-===-

i'd say the picture is still bearish for monday, specifically, but im saving the good stuff for the newsletter Wink

interesting - thanks.

newsletter?

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: Miz4r on April 21, 2013, 07:10:05 PM

It's weekend, you can't expect those resistances to break with these kind of volumes. Tomorrow we will know more, until then it's anyone's guess.

price exhibits the same patterns, just on lower volume.

it's harder to confirm patterns in this setting, but the price is following my personal trading model very nicely, and i stand by the failure to break the resistances as a signal to relieve selling pressure. the market is short-term overbought, and we are, as i projected 12 hours ago, sliding into a low-volume downtrend. there even seems to be a little bear pennant forming right now, which is likely to break down.

-===-

-===-

i'd say the picture is still bearish for monday, specifically, but im saving the good stuff for the newsletter Wink

Miz4r

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1000

It's weekend, you can't expect those resistances to break with these kind of volumes. Tomorrow we will know more, until then it's anyone's guess.

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: seldon on April 21, 2013, 09:04:58 AM

Similar to that blood red day just before the price doubled?

not similar at all. we were extremely oversold on the short term at that point. the reason that now is different is because the bulls have exhausted their energy for the time being and failed to break through the 38.2% resistance line.

seldon

sr. member

Activity: 353

Merit: 250

Quote from: GraphicImpulse on April 21, 2013, 01:22:39 AM

Now blood red day... not looking good friends

Similar to that blood red day just before the price doubled?

xorglub

full member

Activity: 204

Merit: 100

We'll see.
TA looks uncertain at this stage - I've seen both bullish and bearish interpretations of the current charts, both camps have very good and valid arguments, but as usual with TA everyone is right until they are wrong...

fabrizziop

hero member

Activity: 506

Merit: 500

I think we're seeing a larger-scale dead cat bounce. After all, you can see that in the 2011 bubble we crashed to about 10$ to then go to 25$ then kinda "stabilize" at 16$. And you know what happened after that.

I think the real bottom is at 32$, although I have like 1.2 BTC (cashed out and withdrawn the rest) in a paper wallet.

Topic: the ultimate inflection point (Read 3219 times)