You don't have to force yourself to predict price of Bitcoin in around any halving and in any bull market after a halving.
If you look at past halvings, you see what? Growth, solid growth.
If you want to predict only one thing, let's skip price prediction but predict the survival of Bitcoin and blockchain technology. If they are all here to stay, price will grow in a way it should be. If you predict a positive future for it, you must ignore all rises and falls in short term and even in a few years. Let's imagine what your investment looks like after next 12 or 16 years.
Topic: The unpredicted rise of BTC in 2022-2023 despite predicted bear market - page 3. (Read 606 times)
June 29, 2022, 08:51:02 AM
June 29, 2022, 08:30:01 AM
Due to that logic the price of BTC depends percicely on what is happening only with BTC itself (trading, halfing, mining, alghorithm changes).
But I'm also curious if we should take into account that other markets (stock market, global political enviroment) influence the crypto-currency market
For example, when the situation in Kazahstan on New Year's Eve took place (country, where price of electricity is extremely low, so miners moved to that country from China), the price of BTC changed too (it fell significantly).
So my question is - should we calculate the influence of such events as signigicant and which also shapes the price of BTC, or we should only calculate the inner logic of BTC (trading, halfing, mining, alghorithm changes)?
But I'm also curious if we should take into account that other markets (stock market, global political enviroment) influence the crypto-currency market
For example, when the situation in Kazahstan on New Year's Eve took place (country, where price of electricity is extremely low, so miners moved to that country from China), the price of BTC changed too (it fell significantly).
So my question is - should we calculate the influence of such events as signigicant and which also shapes the price of BTC, or we should only calculate the inner logic of BTC (trading, halfing, mining, alghorithm changes)?
June 29, 2022, 06:05:52 AM
Usually the end of the bear market is somewhat after the bitcoin block halving. So it will happen if I'm not mistaken on block 840,000. So that will be around April-May 2024, most likely give or take some months, then we will see some recovery. So bull cycle might start around that timeframe 2024 and not 2025.
Not sure what you mean by this.
Still rise base on the basic tenant of supply and demand.
Not sure what you mean by this.
Quote
But this 4-year cycle theory may not consider the rise of a) interest in digital assets, b) possible metavesre market spread, c) the rise of productive capacity due to digitilized world and so - the interest in digital sector of economy
Still rise base on the basic tenant of supply and demand.
June 29, 2022, 05:33:40 AM
Bitcoin may grow in 2023/2024, but bitcoin halving is 2024 and bitcoin grows after halving, the growth is expected in 2024/2025, but that does not means 2023 will not be the for bull and bear market.
Metaverse do not control bitcoin price.
Metaverse do not control bitcoin price.
If we are going to admit the 4-cycle theory as a basis for analysis, then bear market is on its rise and will last 3 and a half year (till 2025)
This is not correct, read the bold part of this post. 
June 29, 2022, 05:16:50 AM
Nowadays there is a popular discussion about bear market, which started after BTC price declined in the end of 2021 and continued doing so in the 2022 till now (mid 2022). The question is simple: What do you think about the possibility that BTC will grow in 2022-2023 despite bear market predictions (some say it will take 4 year cycle, till 2024), and what would be the price of the growth?
I am aware of the 4-cycle theory, but I think that due to the rise of metaverse, digital economy shall rise too (new economic tools designed specific for crypto-purposes, the in-stability on stock-markets due to different reasons: war, inflation, gas prices).
If we are going to admit the 4-cycle theory as a basis for analysis, then bear market is on its rise and will last 3 and a half year (till 2025)
But this 4-year cycle theory may not consider the rise of a) interest in digital assets, b) possible metavesre market spread, c) the rise of productive capacity due to digitilized world and so - the interest in digital sector of economy
Let's discuss
I am aware of the 4-cycle theory, but I think that due to the rise of metaverse, digital economy shall rise too (new economic tools designed specific for crypto-purposes, the in-stability on stock-markets due to different reasons: war, inflation, gas prices).
If we are going to admit the 4-cycle theory as a basis for analysis, then bear market is on its rise and will last 3 and a half year (till 2025)
But this 4-year cycle theory may not consider the rise of a) interest in digital assets, b) possible metavesre market spread, c) the rise of productive capacity due to digitilized world and so - the interest in digital sector of economy
Let's discuss
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