Topic: The US dollar is gaining strength - page 7. (Read 1393 times)

The US dollar is undermined long term by trade and fiscal deficit.    The strength of the dollar relates to rising rates right now but long term its easily observable at the top end of its range



The reason I do not expect strong dollar long term is that so much of the US treasury debt is financed short term not long term.   This means raising rates increases the government debt costs on every rise short term.   There is no surplus currently which would be required to undo this effect, I believe it would cause significant upset to reduce budget spending at this point.   The most likely outcome is a dollar weakened by excess supply to service that long term debt.

This in turn raises the prices for many assets and likely means BTC does not face the apparent headwind its had for much of 2017

I can see the trade war really benefiting the USD a whole lot and that is a terrible thing already for some of the smaller countries, because the inflation is going to kick in seriously and most especially for countries with very low economy and countries that depend typically a lot on importation of goods and have not much of industrialization going on within the country. The stock market is actually showing signs of getting beaten from this since a lot of them have been overbought and overpriced anyway, so I won't be surprised to start seeing investors moving back into USD.

Yeah, it would most definitely affect the smaller economy a lot looking at what some already are saying in their various countries, the inflation going on and how their own currency is crashing against the dollar since they typically rely on it anyway for importation somehow. It is crazy to see something like this going on and I do not even know whether to call this a good thing or a bad thing, but the strengthening of the USD, probably would affect a lot of countries who are dependent on it somehow. Seems the trade war declared by trump is really making some good impact for the US economy.

Today the dollar has lost the quite sufficient part of its previous gain.

Here's Why Stock Sell-Off Hurt USD Alone

https://www.investing.com/analysis/heres-why-stock-selloff-hurt-usd-alone-200348078

Yes.Same with my thoughts too.I know that dollar is really gaining its strength even a year ago and up to the present time it has terribly reached a very high amount.But considering bitcoin,it will not be affected by a fiat currency because its function is not to compete with dollar or any other currency.But somehow it aims to be a global currency,or maybe another option for payment system.

Euro has been regaining for the last three days and has easily defended the crucial level 1,1500. It seems for me that the weaker dollar is much better for the crypto market in prospective.


ECB minutes highlight fears for growth from trade war
https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/ecb-minutes-highlight-fears-for-growth-from-trade-war-1640351

Account of the monetary policy meeting
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/accounts/2018/html/ecb.mg181011.en.html




Just because it is a currency cross (a pair).
Suppose,
1 BTC = 6000 USD
Let us suppose USD is got stronger against the all foreign currencies in the world, generally it is logically that 1 BTC will cost a bit less USDs because BTC is quoted against the USD. In the supposition I do not take into account that at the same time the BTC value may be changed


Oh, I got it. Speculating with currency is not the simplest way to gain because there are a lot of troubles. Which ones? Here are some for operations with cash
1 big spread
2 it takes much time (months or even years)
3 taxes
4 currencies are difficult for predictions
5 usually small movements in %

In most cases it is a bit profitable and less risky to buy bonds or good equities with nice dividends.

If you are sure about Bitcoin it would better to buy Bitcoin. Bitcoin can double its price or even more but, for instance, it is impossible that the pair EUR/USD will be dropped or grown in two times so when speculating with major currency pairs your potential revenue is capped.
Anyway  any speculations are dangerous! =)

Where did some of you guys come up with the idea that dollar gaining strength will have an effect on Bitcoin? I don’t really see any connection that Bitcoin has with fiat, and from all research I have made none has said that dollar can have effect on Bitcoin. Ever since Bitcoin was introduced, it has been growing on its own, disregarding all these.

Yeah and i've been thinking what makes this huge inflation in USD when the crypto market was not really working out yet, i mean, look at the crypto market it is not making a huge move yet like a sudden pump.
Buying crypto might give you a profit but buying dollars then convert it to your fiat seems like not a good idea because of their high rates for converting money it might take your profit to go to their pocket.

I noticed this recently as well when I wanted to exchange some AUD to USD, rates have certainly spiked and USD has been pretty strong for the past few months for sure.

I honestly think that this is only going to affect the traditional economy in terms of exports, imports, and tourism. I don't think that USD going strong is going to have much to do with bitcoin prices, even though theoretically prices for BTC would drop as well.

The main reason is that bitcoin's primarily traded against USD itself which makes the rates at which USD is traded against other currencies less relevant. However, if in the future we see more equal distribution of trading volumes of BTC against other fiats, this could change.

U.S dollor is very strong currency this will lead to all aspects of global business for the entire world this is also one of reason why the inflation of a small country directly affect to people is because of sometimes high demand because of the price value of dollar but for the situation of bitcoin deceased value is not because of the dollor. its only because of the traders and the volume of investor that discharge from involvement of daily 24/7 operation of bitcoin.

according to wing the strength of the dollar will not affect bitcoin and the crypto currency market, because bitcoin / crypto currency and the dollar cannot be linked together because they have their own price reference if the dollar refers more to the economic policies of the United States and the world, in contrast to bitcoin and crypto currencies are only affected by supply and demand coupled with news or issues that hit bitcoin and other crypto currencies

Unfortunately I could not understand your idea it seemed to me like just a simple speculation which the outcome would depend on the difference between the prices of buying and selling.



Currently just crude oil and the US stock market are growing despite of the strong dollar.

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Dollar is gaining just because the period of easy money is over. FED is hardening the monetary policy by increasing the interest rate and squeezing liquidity but ECB and BOJ are not doing the same and holding their interest rates near zero.

Dollor index is increasing from last few months but this month NFP shows increase in unemployment and that will effect on USD.

I have the song believe that this evolution of the american dollar will be reflected in the crypto market, as i am expecting at the end of the year the movement in the market will be massive and the value of the cryptocurrency with be sky rocket high.

yes you are very right, if the dollar goes up it will have a negative impact on countries involved in economic problems. but as you say, it will have a positive impact on those who know about crypto. this is where investors seek additional to fulfill their lives. they are very smart if they use crypto as a side job to get additional benefits. surely the need will be fulfilled.

absolutely right because almost all the countries in the world are adopting and increasing the money that makes the US dollar stronger until now.

I think if the dollar rises, of course it will have a negative impact on the economy in some countries.
For those who understand the crypto world, of course that will have a positive impact.
For those who do not understand the world of crypto will be a problem, because all their needs will increase due to rising dollars.

A strong dollar will impact positively on cryptocurrencies. It is the most outstanding fiat the all exchanges have to exchange against cryptos. Therefore it will inspire confidence in the market.

Same here in our country the US dollar currency has gone strong and the inflation rate here is high. Usually the US dollar currency has stabilized and play its conversion from the last few years but if it will compared to present value definitely there is a clear huge gap. However, I do not think that it could affect the value of crypto unless if crypto is being sold to fiat money.

I just wonder if I will buy crypto now and buy out dollars then convert to out fiat. I think it is profitable?

Yes it does, it has ever been growing since last year and in our country our own fiat is getting down vs dollar and it is making a goods, expensive.

Interesting analysis. You see, when people speak of coins relative to other coins they forget that most of the fiat in the world at this moment is producing shitty interests while inflation is strong. Everything is weak compared to reality.