The value spike... c'mon, you all noticed it! - page 2.

deadlizard

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Raulo on April 20, 2011, 06:29:18 AM

Quote from: Mahkul on April 20, 2011, 06:14:30 AM

You need to take into account that the reward for finding a block is going to be divided by two in ~2 years. This will certainly change the trend.

By the time the reward gets halved, the difficulty will increase at least 10-fold and, therefore, reward per compute unit. I think nobody should really care right now about halving the reward.

Yep, Halving the reward in 2013 is an old news and as such is priced in already... Best to ignore...

nothing to see here, move along Cheesy

Raulo

full member

Activity: 238

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Quote from: Mahkul on April 20, 2011, 06:14:30 AM

You need to take into account that the reward for finding a block is going to be divided by two in ~2 years. This will certainly change the trend.

By the time the reward gets halved, the difficulty will increase at least 10-fold and, therefore, reward per compute unit. I think nobody should really care right now about halving the reward.

marcus_of_augustus

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Eadem mutata resurgo

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Mahkul on April 20, 2011, 06:14:30 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Price vs. the 'long' term trend shows a standard deviation of about .36, which means it is not improbable that it may drop back below $1 based on the available statistical universe.

If you believe that trend it could still be years before we see $10/BTC, but it is a fair certainty that we will eventually see those levels and much higher IMO. As it has been mentioned, how fast that happens really depends on the growth of demand.

You need to take into account that the reward for finding a block is going to be divided by two in ~2 years. This will certainly change the trend.

Yes, it has been troubling me, because I don't really have much of a clue about how that would affect the market other than to force it up. But by how much? Twice the rate? I don't know. For the sake of having numbers to look at that's what I have plugged in, but I have a feeling it could be a lot higher.

I'm kind of considering like an afterburner type of effect for now .... widespread awareness will be getting near to a peak, or saturation, and if it is still alive most of the bigger threats will have been taken on imo.

Jan 2013 and the neat fuel gets dumped into the exhaust when bitcoin entering circulation halves, it could create chaotic scenes if demand is still powerful (growth continued at current exponential rates) and weakened state currencies, bonds and credit markets are sensing a disruptive force.

Mahkul

sr. member

Activity: 434

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Every saint has a past. Every sinner has a future.

Quote from: ?? on ??

Price vs. the 'long' term trend shows a standard deviation of about .36, which means it is not improbable that it may drop back below $1 based on the available statistical universe.

If you believe that trend it could still be years before we see $10/BTC, but it is a fair certainty that we will eventually see those levels and much higher IMO. As it has been mentioned, how fast that happens really depends on the growth of demand.

You need to take into account that the reward for finding a block is going to be divided by two in ~2 years. This will certainly change the trend.

marcus_of_augustus

legendary

Activity: 3920

Merit: 2349

Eadem mutata resurgo

Quote from: error on April 20, 2011, 05:24:50 AM

Maybe that guy who wanted to buy 100k BTC at 2 USD started buying.

I think there maybe more than one, looks to me like we just went through a mini bidding war ... taking a breather for now though.

error

hero member

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Maybe that guy who wanted to buy 100k BTC at 2 USD started buying.

kiba

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Here's how I think about it:

Bitcoin price as bitcoin does. There is no use to amuse ourselves with trying to predict the price of bitcoin in the short term. It's random and noisy and it's very hard to gather the necessary information about the future.

Uncertainty is part of life. So don't try to connect events to reasons because very likely you are just wrong.

N12

donator

Activity: 1610

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Whether it’s 0.1$, 1$, 10$ or 100$ is arbitrary and purely determined by supply and demand. The supply side is fixed and the inflation rate known. If it was 2.1 million BTC max instead of 21 million, the exchange rate would be 10$ now.

The exchange rate has risen now due to increased demand that surpassed supply and inflation.

For historical figures, check the charts on http://bitcoincharts.com.

Vasco

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SEIZED by Gunthar

What's the deal with the quick rise in the value of BTC the last week or so? I remember about 3 weeks ago it was less than .88 USD and now its bypassed the US dollar and is at 1.17-1.19 USD depending on the market.

Is this type of rise typical? What is the all time high of bitcoin? It seems that it has hit 1.20 before. Do the math wizards on this forum predict a consistent rise in the value BTC? Is it ever going to drop below $1 again? I have seen speculations on blogs that are predicting the possibility of $10 USD per BTC. Is this feasible? Will the value of a BTC hover over the price of the USD or will it drop again?

These are just thoughts I have had, as once I saw it surpass the USD I was amused at how even though BTC has no precious metal backing (just like the USD) it is still held as more valuable. Does this mean the US dollar is really that weak? Or does it mean that BTC is really that strong? Both perhaps?

I'm new to this, I've only been following it for a few months now, so I'm not sure what the more experienced bitcoin veterans have seen.

Topic: The value spike... c'mon, you all noticed it! - page 2. (Read 4655 times)