The weekend is coming! The weekend is coming! - page 3.

imperi

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Quote from: DamienBlack on July 07, 2011, 08:15:05 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on July 07, 2011, 07:56:36 PM

All well and good until the commissions grind you down. I faced the same problem playing poker. I could beat the players, but not the rake. I have some orders in on campbx.com with no fees charged currently. Low volume, but I'm not playing with much anyway.

0 commission at mt gox right now. Pretty good trading. Has made me a lot more active.

I'm very happy that trading volume has been so high at Mtgox. Over a million dollars were traded yesterday. Confidence in exchanges is necessary for Bitcoin to grow.

DamienBlack

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Quote from: billyjoeallen on July 07, 2011, 07:56:36 PM

All well and good until the commissions grind you down. I faced the same problem playing poker. I could beat the players, but not the rake. I have some orders in on campbx.com with no fees charged currently. Low volume, but I'm not playing with much anyway.

0 commission at mt gox right now. Pretty good trading. Has made me a lot more active.

billyjoeallen

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Quote from: DamienBlack on July 07, 2011, 07:39:09 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on July 07, 2011, 07:32:43 PM

A Big Kahuna can absorb any dip except a stampede and has considerable ability to prevent a stampede. A giant bear could do the same in the other direction, but those have likely all cashed out already.

Black Friday was a Black Swan. Not much to be learned there except put in a huge order at $0.03/BTC. The market doesn't have to stay perfectly even for your BTFD play to backfire. It just has to drop less than you anticipate before heading back up for good.

By "black friday" I'm referring to the $30-$10 event, not the hackcrash. I am well aware that the position can move against me, that is how markets work. But I'm already $0.80/BTC up and the weekend hasn't even started. Normally I'd close my position here and rebuy (as long is my default position), but I'm going to try to leave it open for a bigger weekend swing. And I have closed 10%, which is enough to cover any minor losses if prices soar.

All in all, good bet so far. You can't trade if you expect to win every time. You have to take the earnings with the losses and try to come out black.

All well and good until the commissions grind you down. I faced the same problem playing poker. I could beat the players, but not the rake. I have some orders in on campbx.com with no fees charged currently. Low volume, but I'm not playing with much anyway.

DamienBlack

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Quote from: billyjoeallen on July 07, 2011, 07:32:43 PM

A Big Kahuna can absorb any dip except a stampede and has considerable ability to prevent a stampede. A giant bear could do the same in the other direction, but those have likely all cashed out already.

Black Friday was a Black Swan. Not much to be learned there except put in a huge order at $0.03/BTC. The market doesn't have to stay perfectly even for your BTFD play to backfire. It just has to drop less than you anticipate before heading back up for good.

By "black friday" I'm referring to the $30-$10 event, not the hackcrash. I am well aware that the position can move against me, that is how markets work. But I'm already $0.80/BTC up and the weekend hasn't even started. Normally I'd close my position here and rebuy (as long is my default position), but I'm going to try to leave it open for a bigger weekend swing. And I have closed 10%, which is enough to cover any minor losses if prices soar.

All in all, good bet so far. You can't trade if you expect to win every time. You have to take the earnings with the losses and try to come out black.

imperi

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Quote from: DamienBlack on July 07, 2011, 07:22:28 PM

Quote from: imperi on July 07, 2011, 07:20:41 PM

The price didn't drop the weekend all the way until right before the major gox incident happened. People were joking about how the weekend drop didn't happen.

What are you talking about? Black friday was the biggest weekend drop of all, and there are at least three, clear, weekend drops before that. The week right before black friday is one of the only exceptions in the last 6 weeks.

Ok, it did fall when Friday just began, but it rebounded quite a bit to $17 by the end of Sunday when the attack happened.

billyjoeallen

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Quote from: DamienBlack on July 07, 2011, 07:08:22 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on July 07, 2011, 07:04:10 PM

Since everybody who's been around for more than two weeks knows that the price usually dips on the weekends, anyone buying is likely to be new. So what happens if the price doesn't drop? Sell the rest of your coin and hope you can start a panic? What if that doesn't work? Buy in at a higher price to stay in the game? Quit? Wait possibly weeks or months for another entry point?

Patterns continue until they don't. If I was a big player and wanted in cheap, I'd start buying in small quantities on Friday and build an invisible bid wall just below spot, letting the suckers bet into the case hand.

I'd buy in higher. It is a gamble. I bet prices move down. If I lose, I lose a small percentage, if I win, I gain a mid-rage percentage. I just keep my stop loss low and I can't lose that much. Same thing as every time you make a trade.

And why would you do that if you were a "big player". We are all trying to buy at the bottom, what makes you think this "big player" is going to do a better job then everyone else?

A Big Kahuna can absorb any dip except a stampede and has considerable ability to prevent a stampede. A giant bear could do the same in the other direction, but those have likely all cashed out already.

Black Friday was a Black Swan. Not much to be learned there except put in a huge order at $0.03/BTC. The market doesn't have to stay perfectly even for your BTFD play to backfire. It just has to drop less than you anticipate before heading back up for good.

DamienBlack

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Activity: 56

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Quote from: imperi on July 07, 2011, 07:20:41 PM

The price didn't drop the weekend all the way until right before the major gox incident happened. People were joking about how the weekend drop didn't happen.

What are you talking about? Black friday was the biggest weekend drop of all, and there are at least three, clear, weekend drops before that. The week right before black friday is one of the only exceptions in the last 6 weeks.

imperi

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The price didn't drop the weekend all the way until right before the major gox incident happened. People were joking about how the weekend drop didn't happen.

n0m4d

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Quote from: samr7 on July 07, 2011, 06:53:11 PM

This.

DamienBlack

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Quote from: billyjoeallen on July 07, 2011, 07:04:10 PM

Since everybody who's been around for more than two weeks knows that the price usually dips on the weekends, anyone buying is likely to be new. So what happens if the price doesn't drop? Sell the rest of your coin and hope you can start a panic? What if that doesn't work? Buy in at a higher price to stay in the game? Quit? Wait possibly weeks or months for another entry point?

Patterns continue until they don't. If I was a big player and wanted in cheap, I'd start buying in small quantities on Friday and build an invisible bid wall just below spot, letting the suckers bet into the case hand.

I'd buy in higher. It is a gamble. I bet prices move down. If I lose, I lose a small percentage, if I win, I gain a mid-rage percentage. I just keep my stop loss low and I can't lose that much. Same thing as every time you make a trade.

And why would you do that if you were a "big player". We are all trying to buy at the bottom, what makes you think this "big player" is going to do a better job then everyone else?

billyjoeallen

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Since everybody who's been around for more than two weeks knows that the price usually dips on the weekends, anyone buying is likely to be new. So what happens if the price doesn't drop? Sell the rest of your coin and hope you can start a panic? What if that doesn't work? Buy in at a higher price to stay in the game? Quit? Wait possibly weeks or months for another entry point?

Patterns continue until they don't. If I was a big player and wanted in cheap, I'd start buying in small quantities on Friday and build an invisible bid wall just below spot, letting the suckers bet into the case hand.

Bitcoin Swami

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Quote from: SmokeAndMirrors on July 07, 2011, 06:21:36 PM

Quote from: DamienBlack on July 07, 2011, 06:07:38 PM

Quote from: Bitcoin Swami on July 07, 2011, 06:03:56 PM

I'm sure these threads are very attractive to merchants. Roll Eyes

If the price goes down, then merchants can charge more bitcoins. More = good.

Doesn't really make a difference as most merchants probably exchange to $$ automatically on the spot.

Well automatically isn't really instant. It takes like an hour just to get your bitcoins to your exchange. Who knows where the price will be then.

samr7

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Firstbits: 1samr7

SmokeAndMirrors

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Quote from: DamienBlack on July 07, 2011, 06:07:38 PM

Quote from: Bitcoin Swami on July 07, 2011, 06:03:56 PM

I'm sure these threads are very attractive to merchants. Roll Eyes

If the price goes down, then merchants can charge more bitcoins. More = good.

Doesn't really make a difference as most merchants probably exchange to $$ automatically on the spot.

DamienBlack

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Quote from: Bitcoin Swami on July 07, 2011, 06:03:56 PM

I'm sure these threads are very attractive to merchants. Roll Eyes

If the price goes down, then merchants can charge more bitcoins. More = good.

Bitcoin Swami

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I'm sure these threads are very attractive to merchants. Roll Eyes

GeniuSxBoY

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Hold your horses!!! Who said anything about buying??

imperi

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I just sold all my Bitcoins. Should I buy them back at $5 or $6?

(just kidding)

bb

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GeniuSxBoY

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Thread is progressing nicely Cool

Topic: The weekend is coming! The weekend is coming! - page 3. (Read 8828 times)