Topic: The whole TETHER thing still on the agenda for a BTC collapse (Read 328 times)

I understand the point of about perception. It's like that most of the times, most news have literally no real impact on cryptos themselves but prices are still affected by them. My point was that if tether would still be 1 tether, everyone would be buying bitcoin or any other tether pair at any price just to get rid of tethers pushing the price up.

i agree that there is no reason for price to drop but it will happen. @gentlemand above gave an interesting answer. it is about Perception
for example back when Bitfinex was hacked in 2016 there was no reason for bitcoin price to drop but people still panicked and crashed the market about 33%

But a tether would still be a tether even if it ''collapses''. The only way it fails is if it's confirmed that they can't back every tether with dollars. It would be weird because even if that happens there is no reason for cryptocurrencies to fall in price compared to tether

in a bear market, all it takes is some bad news to trigger selloffs. it doesn't matter what the news is.

logically, the collapse of mt gox in february 2014 didn't fundamentally affect BTC---if anything, it removed BTC from the spot market that was still held in their custody. but since the market was very bearish and price was getting hammered down at every resistance, it was a natural trigger for another selloff.

if tether collapses, it'll be interesting to know whether it happens in a bull or bear market. in a bull market, it could look more like the silk road or btc-e busts---just a blip in a bull run.

Perception is far more powerful than fact. If Tether lifted its skirt to reveal no knickers enough stupid people would panic and assume everything was suddenly worthless because a moderate portion of it had been paid for with USDT.

However new fiat on the exchange everyone else follows is exponentially more powerful than a real dollar on an obscure exchange that had been circulating for months or years.

Tether is oneof the topics you'll see cycling every now and then to help explain Bitcoin's rise or fall, depending on the agenda. Personally, I think it's undeniably shady and would never hold any of it. I actually never even sell any crypto for usdt, always in BTC. But to say it's going to decide BTC's fate is ridiculous. If localbitcoin local currency in say, Zim dollar, crashed, would that bring BTC down?

Maybe I miss a lot of the theory behind how Tether influenced Bitcoin but the fact that they're creating more and price is up seems to put that theory dead in the water.

I started to consider that Tether thing was basically fud that affected my decision to sell earlier and I regretted. I still think its weird but I don't think that is big problem at all. Many stopped buying Tether already.

Now real USD is back on BFX I think all that speculation is largely irrelevant and can be put to bed. Many of the cases made were pretty compelling but at no point did it actually affect how it operated or influence any of the exchanges who actually use it.

Maybe one day some very fruity stuff will come out about it, and I'm absolutely certain BFX have done many other outrageous things in secret, but the market as a whole will probably have moved on by then.

Only cuckolds buy the Tether FUD.

Not just Bitfinex but all the exchanges which have tethered the price of bitcoin to their own dollar and not just to the USD. Like what cryptopia did mid last year.
Here is an article of what could happen if tether continues on just 'printing money' for these exchanges.
https://hackernoon.com/what-will-happen-when-the-shit-hits-the-fan-with-tether-f59f92fd8dca

Clip of what they said about these exchanges getting in on the business of accepting tether..

TL DR

Confidence in Tether is as fragile as the plates in the picture. The cupboard door might open any moment, or stay closed for a long time.
When the market loses faith, Tethers will gradually lose a bit of value and then suddenly become worthless. (Hemingway: “How did you go bankrupt?” Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”) The USDTUSD exchange rate at Kraken will collapse, meaning a single Tether will buy just a few cents. (Kraken is the only exchange to offer a market for this pair.)
The phony USDT price of Bitcoin (and alts) at Exchanges using Tether will explode to ridiculously high prices. Noobs will think they are millionaires until they learn they are rich in Tethers but poor in dollars.
The genuine USD price of Bitcoin (and alts) at exchanges that have not integrated Tether will fall as experienced investors flee crypto into USD.
There will be a flight of Bitcoin from Tether-integrated exchanges to non-Tether exchanges with fiat off-ramps. Exchanges running fractional reserves will be exposed.
The Exchanges might slam the doors shut on Withdrawals.
The Exchanges own large balances of Tether (those figures include Tethers owned by their clients), especially Bittrex, Poloniex and Bitfinex, and they might become insolvent and many clients will suffer losses.
The Bitcoin market will take a massive hit. But this process will be a lancing of the boil and Bitcoin will emerge, eventually, cauterised and stronger.
Select and test your fiat off-ramp for getting fiat out of the system now, don’t wait for the crisis. Kraken is recommended for withdrawal of Euros which usually arrive in 24 hours.
How to trade this: Watch the Tether price at Kraken. Watch the Bitfinex Cold Wallet balance and flows. Watch for an emerging premium in the Bitcoin price at Tether exchanges. Watch the Bitfinex USD lending rate (is it spiking to disincentivise withdrawals?). When these indicators show the first traces of shit hitting the fan: Move BTC and Alts out of Tether exchanges if you have crypto there. Sell everything for USD. Move the fiat to your bank. Short Tether at Kraken.
Tether Exchanges refers to Bitfinex, Bittrex, Poloniex, Binance.

Non-Tether Exchanges refers to Kraken, GDAX, Gemini, Bitstamp, CEX. (Kraken trades Tether but crucially all assets are traded vs. fiat and clients can hold USD and EUR balances.)

Bitfinex, being the slippery gits they are, have already offloaded some of that backing on others. I think Bithumb agreed quite some time ago to back Tether fully for its customers no matter what happens to USDT itself.

It won't always be that way because tether only represents dollars and euro in crypto world, but they really aren't the fiat currencies everyone trust. For this reason, it will not hold it's value if it started collapsing on a large scale again. That large scale collapse will cause credibility crisis once again on tether. Nevertheless, I don't see how it would also be the cause for another BTC collapse.

As long as there is enough trust in Tether, it will hold its value. Even during the peak of its credibility crisis, tether managed to hold its value. Now there is some indication that the reserves might be valid. People will treat tether as if it is interchangeable with the US dollar.

I don't believe that people are working for bitcoin collapse and I don't think that bitcoin is going to collapse. Blockchain technology is going to remain with us and we are going to benefit from this advanced in technology in the future. I have been following event in cryptocurrencies world and one thing that I have kept my faith on is that bitcoin is our future currency.

People are not commenting anymore because there are strong indicators that support the thesis that they do, in fact, have reserves in fiat that would prove Tether. The problem is that there are also strong indications of money laundering. That is, the collapse may arise because of something similar to the confiscation of Bitcoin in the silkroad case.

https://blog.bitmex.com/tether-addendum-new-financial-data-released-from-puerto-rico/

if you sell Dogecoin for bitcoin, will bitcoin price go up? the same is true about Tether. if it falls and people start selling it for other coins (like selling it to get bitcoin) those coins prices won't go up. not that in case of a fall Tether will no longer be worth $1, so for example you have to exchanges 50,000 tether for 1BTC.

but the price may drop only because of panic. mainly because fall of Tether means fall of one of the biggest exchanges (bitfinex) and that can cause panic and panic sells to follow and price to go down.

But if tether were to collapse wouldn't that push the market upwards? Everyone would want to get rid of tether and exchange it for any other coin at any price, right? Unless tether stops working as a currency and literally can't have any transactions people would just transfer their usdt into any coin pushing the price upwards.

i'd say the bitfinex situation is multi-faceted and we haven't heard the end of it. in time, i think the collapse of bitfinex is inevitable, but timing it would be impossible.

the US government is obviously watching them closely. the subpoenas are enough to establish that. the fact that tether severed relations with friedman rather than proceeding with the audit is telling---it doesn't mean they are insolvent, but it suggests they won't risk giving account access to auditors who then might be subpoenaed by regulators. i believe that's what this is all about.

bitfinex has done a very good job keeping their money hidden, and that's the main reason regulators would bide their time. the feds made a massive blunder last year when they took down btc-e but couldn't recover any funds.

another situation which has not been resolved is the €400M seizure from a tiny polish bank tied to bitfinex. the thing about tether is this: it only takes a couple of these seizures to make bitfinex insolvent. don't get overconfident that it can't happen. you should definitely limit the funds you keep on bitfinex or in USDT.

Tether talk occasionally bubbles up and then fades away again. Bitfinex now does real dollars again and doesn't differentiate between USD and USDT on their platform any more. Tether creation from now on will presumably be for alt exchanges in the main.

There've been enough hints like ING grudgingly admitting to hosting BFX accounts to get the impression that the creation from thin air thing was always a load of rubbish. That'll never stop the theories though.

I'm not going to sweat about it unless it makes me sweat.

there isn't any talk about tether and all the crap they are pulling because all the "talk" was being spread on the internet to increase the drop so that they can buy cheaper coins. and ever since the drop ended and reversal started the "talk" lost its main and only purpose!

additionally this "talk" was based on one big assumption and that was "bitcoin is rising whenever they print new USDT" but during the drop they kept printing more like they always do and price kept on dropping which proved that assumption was bullshit. so there is no bases for the "talk" anymore either.