Topic: Theoretically there will be exactly no bitcoins in the future. (Read 2319 times)
The more bitcoins that are lost, the more people will take care with their own holdings since their value will increase.
Of course there are going to be Bitcoins in the future, there is no guaranteed that you know what is going to happen with Bitcoin but I do not see why Bitcoins are going to disappear in the future.
Yep, some day probably all bitcoin will be lost, but bitcoin will die way sooner... and another crypto will take it place.
still, not this generation problem.
still, not this generation problem.
If small part from all BTC are lost, it is nothing. It is very small part - in lost wallets, computer viruses etc. The whole BTC system is covering whole world with thousands of daily users. 
I do nit see any reason why in the future there would be no Bitcoins. I do not know why people say this and I would like to see a explanation on why Bitcoin is not going to be there in the future.
Op's argument isn't entirely wrong though. We've only considered the present times which is that the number of bitcoins lost is dust compared to what is mined everyday. If, I say again, if there comes a point when there are no minable bitcoins left, the number of bitcoins will start reducing everyday. Those that hold onto bitcoins with paper wallet can, theoretically, be 'lost' because they are not in transaction anymore.
I stand to be corrected as this is only an opinion.
I stand to be corrected as this is only an opinion.
at the end there you forgot to factor in satoshi has 1 million out of the first 6
What does that have to do with anything?
Satoshi could be dead (and his bitcoins lost).
Satoshi could have lost his private keys (and his bitcoins lost).
Nearly all of the bitcoins that people assume Satoshi has have never been spent. Is this because he has chosen not to spend them or is it because they are lost? How would you know?
so i would say if you calculated how many coins were mined up until April 2011 (i am sure someone here will know this)
This is a pretty easy calculation (Since you only specified a month, I'll use the middle of the month, April 15):
- There are 60 minutes in an hour, 24 hours in a day, and 365.25 days in a year
- Multiply those together and you find there are about 525960 minutes in a year, and 1440 minutes in a day
- A new block is generated on average every 10 minutes.
- Divide the minutes per year (and per day) by 10 minutes per block to find out on average how many blocks are generated in that time
- So, we get about 52596 blocks per year and 144 blocks per day
- Satoshi started bitcoin on 2009 January 3
- There are 2 years between 2009 January 3 and 2011 January 3
- There are 28+28+31+15= 102 days between 2011 January 3 and 2011 April 15
- 2 years * 52596 blocks per year = 105192 blocks
- 102 days * 144 blocks per day = 14688 blocks
- So, by mid-April 2011 there were approximately 105192 + 14688 = 119880 blocks
- The block subsidy back then was 50 BTC per block.
- 50 BTC per block * 119880 blocks = approximately 5994000 bitcoins mined
If you look at blockchain.info you'll see that my calculated "estimate" of 119880 blocks on April 15 is close, but not exact:
https://blockchain.info/block-height/119880
The 119880'th block was actually generated on April 24. If we click on the "Previous Block" hash over and over, eventually we get back to the 118412'th block which was the first block generated on April 15.
So if you multiply 118412 blocks * 50 BTC per block, you find that by exactly mid April there should have been exactly 5920600 bitcoins mined.
Looks like my "estimate" was pretty close. It's the difference between saying "5.99 million BTC" and "5.92 million BTC".
Then it would be a safe bet i think to say that the amount up until then would be like a maximum that could be missing, but more likely about 20-50% of those early mined coins mined prior to Arpil 2011
20% * 5920600 BTC = 1184120 BTC
50% * 5920600 BTC = 2960300 BTC
at the end there you forgot to factor in satoshi has 1 million out of the first 6
also to work out how many bitcoins were in circulation, i just done the quick method and used this link:
http://www.coindesk.com/data/bitcoin-total-circulation/
i had already edited my post before you could post your calculations
so i would say if you calculated how many coins were mined up until April 2011 (i am sure someone here will know this)
This is a pretty easy calculation (Since you only specified a month, I'll use the middle of the month, April 15):
- There are 60 minutes in an hour, 24 hours in a day, and 365.25 days in a year
- Multiply those together and you find there are about 525960 minutes in a year, and 1440 minutes in a day
- A new block is generated on average every 10 minutes.
- Divide the minutes per year (and per day) by 10 minutes per block to find out on average how many blocks are generated in that time
- So, we get about 52596 blocks per year and 144 blocks per day
- Satoshi started bitcoin on 2009 January 3
- There are 2 years between 2009 January 3 and 2011 January 3
- There are 28+28+31+15= 102 days between 2011 January 3 and 2011 April 15
- 2 years * 52596 blocks per year = 105192 blocks
- 102 days * 144 blocks per day = 14688 blocks
- So, by mid-April 2011 there were approximately 105192 + 14688 = 119880 blocks
- The block subsidy back then was 50 BTC per block.
- 50 BTC per block * 119880 blocks = approximately 5994000 bitcoins mined
If you look at blockchain.info you'll see that my calculated "estimate" of 119880 blocks on April 15 is close, but not exact:
https://blockchain.info/block-height/119880
The 119880'th block was actually generated on April 24. If we click on the "Previous Block" hash over and over, eventually we get back to the 118412'th block which was the first block generated on April 15.
So if you multiply 118412 blocks * 50 BTC per block, you find that by exactly mid April there should have been exactly 5920600 bitcoins mined.
Looks like my "estimate" was pretty close. It's the difference between saying "5.99 million BTC" and "5.92 million BTC".
Then it would be a safe bet i think to say that the amount up until then would be like a maximum that could be missing, but more likely about 20-50% of those early mined coins mined prior to Arpil 2011
20% * 5920600 BTC = 1184120 BTC
50% * 5920600 BTC = 2960300 BTC
No, it's wrong, because there will always have some die-hard fans who will keep their bitcoins in their paper wallets/physical coins no matter what happens.
If they will keep their coins no matter what then they are lost in practice, because no one that will spend them will have their private keys.
Of course one day most Bitcoins will be unacessible, but it would take centuries for such situation to happens, the coin more than likely will be dead long ago way before that.
Bitcoin was not made to last forever
All Bitcoins never will be lost..
Even if all except 1 bitcoin are inaccessable..
this just makes the 1 btc worth 21 million x old value
Even if all except 1 bitcoin are inaccessable..
this just makes the 1 btc worth 21 million x old value
i would think you could estimate the amount of coins lost
or estimate a rough maximum that might be lost
If you only look at data prior to April 2011
when 1 BTC = $1
from that point on i would assume people would have started to take more steps to secure their coins and make sure passwords were stored safe, as that would be when a lot would start seeing the potential, so i dont think many coins would be lost after that time, or nothing considerable that would not be normal such as user error is, like typos and forgeting password, but these would most likely be small amounts that would not add up to anything significant
so i would say if you calculated how many coins were mined up until April 2011
Then it would be a safe bet i think to say that the amount up until then would be like a maximum that could be missing, but more likely about 20-50% of those early mined coins mined prior to Arpil 2011
EDIT: roughly 6 million in circulation April 2011,
i would estimate about 1-2million bitcoins may be lost
dont forget SN has 1 million
or estimate a rough maximum that might be lost
If you only look at data prior to April 2011
when 1 BTC = $1
from that point on i would assume people would have started to take more steps to secure their coins and make sure passwords were stored safe, as that would be when a lot would start seeing the potential, so i dont think many coins would be lost after that time, or nothing considerable that would not be normal such as user error is, like typos and forgeting password, but these would most likely be small amounts that would not add up to anything significant
so i would say if you calculated how many coins were mined up until April 2011
Then it would be a safe bet i think to say that the amount up until then would be like a maximum that could be missing, but more likely about 20-50% of those early mined coins mined prior to Arpil 2011
EDIT: roughly 6 million in circulation April 2011,
i would estimate about 1-2million bitcoins may be lost
dont forget SN has 1 million
One thing that probably has not been thought of, during the creation of BTC, is that the number of Bitcoins will be slowly reducing to zero. There will be, in some time, 21KK BTC, but what about bitcoin that get lost? I mean hardware malfunctions. Wrong address transfers. Lost passwords. Forgotten wallets etc.
Do we know, how many of all Bitcoins is in circulations at this moment? I mean we can count the number that indicates how many it should be. We however do not know how many of them is inaccessible.
One day it might be a problem, but probably not the problem of our generation. Still statistically that says bitcoin cannot survive.
Dude just calm down and enjoy the pleasures of BTC at the moment. For BTC to die there is a log way to go. It would probably be aftaer all other cyrptos die out and it will not happen for our genereation like you said. So take my advice and reap the profits of BTC at the moment. Just think positively of the future. Do we know, how many of all Bitcoins is in circulations at this moment? I mean we can count the number that indicates how many it should be. We however do not know how many of them is inaccessible.
One day it might be a problem, but probably not the problem of our generation. Still statistically that says bitcoin cannot survive.
I think it bitcoin will exist in future. Because, if some bitcoins were send to a wrong address that was never used may be randomly generated by someone in the future and he/she got that lost bitcoin we cannot say its impossible but its a rare case.
Just dividing down in an endless deflation is also quite dangerous.
What if someone in the year 3000 finds a USB stick with 50 bitcoins on it and that is equivilant to $100billion now?
Ok it is an extreme example, but could happen in a constantly deflating world.
What if someone in the year 3000 finds a USB stick with 50 bitcoins on it and that is equivilant to $100billion now?
Ok it is an extreme example, but could happen in a constantly deflating world.
What you are concerned about it will not be anyone of us problem in our journey of life. Maybe after we have died (no one knows when this happen) that problem may arose , so I think we are safe for the near to long term future as only 15 mln bitcoins approximately are mined so far. Personally I am not concerned at all about this, we should focus more to make bitcoin more usable and raising its value. Thats what I am concerned about bitcoin.
One thing that probably has not been thought of, during the creation of BTC, is that the number of Bitcoins will be slowly reducing to zero. There will be, in some time, 21KK BTC, but what about bitcoin that get lost? I mean hardware malfunctions. Wrong address transfers. Lost passwords. Forgotten wallets etc.
Do we know, how many of all Bitcoins is in circulations at this moment? I mean we can count the number that indicates how many it should be. We however do not know how many of them is inaccessible.
One day it might be a problem, but probably not the problem of our generation. Still statistically that says bitcoin cannot survive.
yes,just little of use relize this fact,that bitcoin create just like other altcoin with limited amount,and at the end will cannot mine again,just bitcoin on our wallet,but this one makes difference between bitcoin and other that bitcoin still loving by so many people,and i'm sure that people will not let bitcoin finished. Do we know, how many of all Bitcoins is in circulations at this moment? I mean we can count the number that indicates how many it should be. We however do not know how many of them is inaccessible.
One day it might be a problem, but probably not the problem of our generation. Still statistically that says bitcoin cannot survive.
February 26, 2016, 10:46:32 AM
I think if you couple the divisible nature with the extended rate of the generation of new coins, you might find that you will not have to ever worry about this until the last coin is mined. This will not be
in our lifetime, and even if this happens, people might then decide to adjust the cap or do something drastic, to generate some more coins. How can they fight over the total cap, if there are zero coins
in circulation? {This part, will be the difficult one to prove} In any way, I do not think Bitcoin will still be used by then, and even if it was still available, it would be worth very little. {supply & demand}
in our lifetime, and even if this happens, people might then decide to adjust the cap or do something drastic, to generate some more coins. How can they fight over the total cap, if there are zero coins
in circulation? {This part, will be the difficult one to prove} In any way, I do not think Bitcoin will still be used by then, and even if it was still available, it would be worth very little. {supply & demand}
February 26, 2016, 10:24:27 AM
We'll always have enough coins in circulation. Bitcoin is consisted from smaller units.
Only price can go up , with those lost coins. But globally bitcoin is safe.
Only price can go up , with those lost coins. But globally bitcoin is safe.
February 25, 2016, 06:10:14 PM
I think this is a little too bit of a grim prediction. Bitcoin will be here in 50 years.
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