If you drink the idiotic, MatTheCat Koolaid and claim the market can only move in directions that are the reverse of where investors go. This claim is essentially saying it's not possible for the market to have any fundamentals whatsoever and everything is nothing but a stop loss hunt. Even if you believed this idiocy, the price was stable at $420 for several months, and the last few attempted shakeouts only got the price to $440, so everyone already knows where the floors are. Since everyone knows where the floors are, attempting a shakeout is pointless when even more longs would pile in than what already exists.
Here was the last orchestrated shakeout event from like a week ago. Someone with $3 million or so tried it on Bitfinex. Bitstamp, Coinbase, and everyone else refused to follow their scam attempt and stayed $5-$8 higher:
You just don't listen to a thing that anyone says and the reason is because you are incapable of taking in any information that is not emotionally appealing and the reason that you can't take in any information that doesn't appeal to your emotions, is because you are a stupid perma-stoned cunt.
My point about the market tending to move against record numbers of margin positions, whether they be longs or shorts, is not up for debate. It has this proven track record. I have posted enough charts depicting it already but anyone can easily go and check it out for themselves. My thesis is indeed, that in the absence of any organic demand, or need to sell, that this market is essentially a money making racket dominated by very few hands, and they will push this market to where the greatest liquidity is and if there are a shit ton of margin longs, and just not very many margin shorts left (after the recent pump which knocked almost half the BFX margin shorts out), then in the absence of an influx of organic demand for BTC, guess where 'they' are going to have push the market in order to extract more wealth out of it?
....and even if 'they' just wanted to get the pump underway in time for the halving, with all those margin longs in place, from prices around here and way down below, as 'they' commence the pump, 'they' are basically going to have to hand over money to margin long traders taking profits from their positions at key levels, as the market rises. If I was a big fat sweaty Chinese Bitcoin Miners syndicate, I would utterly balk at the prospect of pumping BTC only to have a bunch of nasty foreign white folks cash out relentlessly on me, before the public had so much as even broke into a canter towards my asset.....Much better way forward would be to shake all those margin long 'parasites' out of their positions, and that is exactly what is going to happen. Mark my words.
Those BFX longs includes BTC, LTC, and now ETH. It's a muddy indicator, I wouldn't trust it.
Very good point, but the majority of it, is indeed for BTC longs. Also, their is a more reliable metric which is the BTC swaps, and right now, they are very depressed. Very high margin longs and very low margin shorts are not metrics associated with the base of a big fucking pump. These numbers need to be sorted out, and they will be sorted out.
