Topic: There is no Altcoin bubble (Read 3012 times)

I see both camps as right on this debate.

There IS a bubble currently, the rise that's happened is gross inflation that WILL have a correction, that may last a short dreadful time or be a slow tapering bleed, probably some of both.  In that period there will still be opportunity for gains to occur.

HOWEVER, the market cap growth argument is valid.  Even though price corrections from the recent influx are going to happen, and that will be a bubble popping.  The overall trend of this investment space IS nascent and still getting it's feet wet in the massive global economy.  It's barely a newborn compared to what it COULD be.  Unless we see some draconian regulation or an outright breach of the underlying encryption schemes the total market value of cryptocurrency is going to continue to rise for the foreseeable future, until we hit a utility wall where the value exceeds the possibility of new use, which is a long ways off.

"We aren't in a bubble" but then he goes on to explain basically exactly what a bubble is. It's new people joining the fun with new money because they are worried about "being left behind" since they see everyone else making profit. It's irrational because people make these decisions purely on emotions such as greed & fear, that's what makes a bubble a bubble. As long as new people join, the bubble continues (sound familiar anyone?).

To argue we aren't in a bubble is to say that many of the shitcoins being pumped right now have real world value. (digibyte? Dnotes? Naut? a few prime examples)

I think it's 100% more likely that people look at the graph and see it rising and say "rising is good" and buy some lol. That's about as far as most people's "technical analysis" goes. It's irrational exhuberence, the fear of being left behind.

It's also the same emotions that causes friends & family members to want you to "invest" their money for them because they see you making good profits right now, little do they realize most of us have been holding for over 2 years now!

That doesn't mean I think the bubble is going to pop soon, tbh I think we are just getting started. Let's just not try to rationalize something that is inheritly irrational by nature. Let the price & volume do the talking, as truly no one knows what comes next.

If this is not a bubble then what is this?  An increase to altcoin price without any reason to increase is not a bubble?  I believe these altcoins that have a huge increase is being pumped.  I saw one that seems pump is over and now is down to 8k satoshi less than its peak price.  I bet this altcoin will continue to drop in price because it seems the whale had already his exit dump.

Related thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/were-in-a-bubble-1926969

How come a company launched a few months  ago with a bunch of developers and basic proof of concept be worth hundreds millions of dollars?

These are the very early stages of a bubble, but it will take many, many years for this to pop. When it does pop, there will be some survivors who are massively wealthy.

This is something we will see for the next few weeks. I hope it does not affect Bitcoin, but even if the alts bubble burst, Bitcoin could benefit if all the capital goes back to BTC.

I believe that for any bubble to happen then the market share must have been massive but with the calibre of alt we have here none is able to pull that off the only thing we see is artificial dumping and pumping which most time is not sustainable in the longterm just another form of ponzi

think about what you are saying for a moment before saying it.

did you think about it?

... if bitcoin is "stuck" or slow or whatever, people are using it to transfer money from one place to another mostly to buy something from a merchant or pay for a service.
or they are traders transferring bitcoin from cold storage to exchange and vice versa.

in both this cases nobody wants or can use an altcoin. for payment the merchants and services don't even want an altcoin. and they don't even have it.
for trading, you are trading bitcoin! so you will transfer bitcoin.

now think about what you said one more time!
now look at the price of altcoins and how they have been rising over the past month. the conclusion is simply, they are buying altcoins to make more bitcoin profit.

Could be that there will come a correction.  But the longterm-holders will win.
Why? Because in schools the kids are already paying each other with dogecoins. Just for fun at this time, but realize... this generation grows up with cryptocurrency.

I have a better way to phrase my original post.

Bitcoin had more than an 80% market dominance. When alts were starting to rise, the general BTC maximalist argument of the altcoin bubble is that although BTC dropped to below 70% it would spring past 90 whike alts sell off.

By there being no altcoin bubble, what I mean is that the shitcoin alts will dump and the money will move into BTC and good alts.Not fair to use some alts being scams as a basis for all altcoins being a scam bubble

There is no Cow Level. Oh wait...

Comon guys... obviously there's a speculative bubble going on for "some" of these alt coins that are hyped up (remember no profits yet).....
The real question is how long can the bubble grow until it pops?

Just like the dotcom bust days, only a few will survive. Don't invest in Pets.com 

I guess there is no bubble. Altcoins find more and more interest around the world because of the rise of bitcoin. Crypto is becoming more and more popular. Also people trust less in fiat.

Bitcoin stuck again, so ppl prefer faster transactions, therefore they buy altcoins.

in 9.9 years we will have weeded out most current altcoins because some will have been replaced and made obsolete by the developments of other coins. If we still have as many coins as we do now being speculated on by that time it is fair to say this entire market is jut a speculators gambling field because the market caps for a few coins should triumph a bunch of others to the point that the many new altcoin startups coming around need massive momentum to pick up and serious case use that is not satisfied by the other coins. With coins like NEM that are able to do so many things for example right now, this is evident.

Thanks for bumping this. I enjoy watching people tell me I'm wrong just to see who is right later. Dash never retraced back to 15 dollars and neither has ETH. Mainly shitcoins get dumped. There is a lot of BTC maximalist ideas from a point in time where many scamcoins flourished but people are more keen at spotting that now so its not the same market as the old altcoin bubble

Most altcoins are in a bubble but the good ones will most likely survive and thrive has bitcoin has in the past years. Its anyone's guess which ones will have the most success though.

99% of altcoins will be down 99% in less than 9.9 years!

Wow all the posts on this thread are by super senior type bitcoin talkers.  I am a total new to this.  Thanks for getting this topic going.  It directly addresses my fundamental question as to what is going on in the crypto world.  I made my first few trades on an exchange late last year, and in the past few months watching my small investment has been an emotional roller coaster.

Currently my thinking is this: It could go either way depending on how crypto is absorbed into the mass consciousness. 

I keep thinking about beanie babies.  People really liked beanie babies, but the market was never fully developed, and was cunningly designed and manipulated from the beginning.  The progenitor of the beanie babies went to prison.  I am thinking the earliest and most cunning crypto investors are currently trying to ensure they avoid this fate.

On the other end of the stick is the example of Starbucks, where I am sitting now.  Coffee shops were not new when Starbucks came along, rather the mass consciousness achieved some sort of consensus leaving Starbucks the dominant place to enjoy a cup of joe with complimentary internet access.

Currency is not new.  Buried somewhere way back in the sands of time lies the first silver sheckel which was given unto man by god in the temple along with scales to measure its weight and a concise explaination of what it was, how to use it, and how to make more.

Thanks bitcointalk for all the explanatory effort.  I always end up reading your posts when I'm trying to get my mind around this isht.

This is nothing new, the media have been spinning the news to their convenience since always, so it is natural that whoever can give an interpretation to something that happened and decide it meant this or that.

Take it to another thread, not here.


I'd like that to happen without an ETF and whales manipulating the price

A real bubble will crash down lower than the start and that isn't happening. Dash had real growth independent of BTC fork fear, it was just boosted. ETH has its dapps coming out all the time. Plenty of other alts had events to drive genuine interest. Not everyone who bought in is purely in to ride a spike but many got in for a longer run which will stay solid