Topic: There is NO Bitcoin bubble, yet. (Read 1992 times)

Hope the get rich quick people who will start panic sell when the price starts stabilizig get huge losses so we get out of them and it will only strenghten bitcoin in long term.

That would be Heaven!

The answer is 42

i bid 2100.01!!

he's clearly wrong. everyone knows it's $2100   

Bitcoin can be purchased - as we all are well aware - by anyone with an internet connected phone or tablet - anywhere in the world. Supply is EXTREMELY limited in the grand scheme of things - and demand is potentially unlimited. It is obvious to any analytical thinker that bitcoin is doing exactly what it was intended to do. The price of bitcoin is going to go through the roof over the next few months - and we should all be proud of ourselves for being the first ones in the door. I'm going long, but it is advisable to show restraint as this whole thing could go up in a puff of smoke tomorrow. I don't think it will. I think we'll see bitcoin hit it's stride in the coming months and just keep on keeping on. I have no number in mind at which I believe bitcoin would be overvalued. Time will tell.

Its hard to say whether or not this is a bubble yet - yes it has all the classic symptoms but Bitcoin is a new breed of currency, and we've never seen a valuation process like this.  Bitcoin could be the correction our global economic markets have needed for years but haven't gotten because of manipulation.  Of course its perhaps mostly driven by speculation and people trying to get rich right now, but I imagine there is enormous support at say the $100 level if not significantly higher ... who knows, the support might even lie at the $1000 level ... only time will tell.

meanwhile, I better get me some ppcoins ... PoS seems pretty cool, but I don't fully get it yet. 

BTC at $10,000 now. THAT would be a bubble.

The only people who didn't think the housing bubble was a bubble were people invested in real estate.  Just like the only people who think bitcoin isn't a bubble are the people invested in bitcoin and making money from it.

It's very hard to be non objective and honest with yourself when you're making money at something. Almost all humans like to believe good things never come to an end,  this is part of the reason why you see so many pro atheletes or celebrities end up broke, they simply can't fatham that at some point the checks will stop rolling in.

I believe 99% that BTC is in a bubble. It's nearly impossible to say it's not, it has every single symptom any bubble has ever had. Right down to a T.

Now that doesn't mean BTC will crash tomorrow....plenty of bubbles take YEARS before they crash. People were warning about the dotcom bubble for years 7rs before it finally people. People were warning about the real estate bubble for about 6 years before it popped.  So I wouldn't be at all shocked if bitcoin continues to grow over the next few years.  That still doesn't mean it's not a bubble though.

I want to add that I own BTC and have stocked up on more BTC's during the recent spike in value. And I'm a huge believer in bitcoin and I believe 100% that the technology of p2p crypto currency is here to stay and will be with us LONG into the future, weither it's bitcoin or something even better that comes along int the future.  But it is certianly possible to be a fan of bitcoin and an owner of bitcoin and still use soem basic rationale and see that the only reason bitcoin has shot up in value so quick is because of a speculation bubble effect.

I have friends calling me up left and right now asking me "how do I buy bitcoin". They don't want bitcoin to use it as a currency, they don't want bitcoin to avoid the government backed systems or bank. The only reason they want bitcoin is because they've seen it going up in value in the news....they want to get rich quick. Nothing else. That is pretty much the exact definition of a bubble in many ways. And when these friends of mine end up buying bitcoin it only makes the value go up more and makes their friends want to get in on it... again a bubble affect.

I believe bitcoin has gone up about 1300% recently,  yet bitcoin services, companies accepting bitcoin, the security of bitcoin, and the ease of use of bitcoin probably hasn't even gone up 2% during that same time period.  When something shoots up in value that much, but the practical usage and serviecs aren't growing anywhere near the same right....THAT IS A BUBBLE.

The only advice I can give to people I care about is don't put in more money than you would be willing to lose. If you could accidently drop $100 bill on the ground and it's not going to ruin your life or affect you too heavily then by all means put $100 into BTC.  But if losing that $100 bill would cause a lot of stress and finincal problems in your life, DON'T put it in something as risky as BTC because you very well could lose it all (you very well could make money as well though, thats benefit of taking a risk).

In the end I think a lot of people in the bitcoin community are blinded by their love for bitcoin so much or are blinded by the amount of money they are making that they can't view this situation objectivly. And that's fine, it's almost human nature to behave that way.

Actually, there is a feedback loop...  Avalon ASICs cost BTC to buy, thus driving people to convert to BTC to get one.  I think this is actually the correct thing though as it actually drives their hardware to actual USD value, instead of under pricing it in USD.  There is a reason to actually need BTC now, to own the printing press to get more BTC.

A long time ago, I remember learning something in a computer science course about simulations. It was something about how you really cannot predict whether some simulation program will crash or end, or really what will happen. I contend that there is absolutely no way to predict accurately what will happen with Bitcoin. Governments could come down hard on it. Or, places like the USA might just tax profits like a capital gains and ignore Bitcoin. Or, it could get widely accepted and Amazon and Google and Lenovo might end up accepting payments in Bitcoin. Or some government might allocate resources to building ASIC miners and try to take over. My point is there is no way to predict. 2140, when the end of mining new Bitcoins is scheduled to end will be long after many of us are dead. There are still many people who have not yet heard about Bitcoin, so the market is far from saturated. Therefore, there is no way to know if it is a bubble, just rising in price until it finds a stable point, or whether something better will replace it.

 

lol   

I agree with this completely, there isn't a sign that bitcoin is in a bubble state right now or that it'll burst. But what we could see is it go down slowly and even out, but once companies look at this (Which I am sure they are after the quick rise) they'll start implementing bitcoin into their buisness practice, that is when we could see this truely skyrocket and go into whatever price it wants.

That's quite interesting thought. I hadn't considered the effect of value increase /use on the block size.

Maybe opportunity for the smaller Altcoins then.

By my estimation at around 1000 dollars we will start to see ~1 dollar fees to get your transactions included in a block. If they increase the block size to 10mb instead of 1mb than mb we could get a 10,000 dollar bitcoin with ~1 dollar tx fees. The devs wont be able to increase the block size higher than 10mb though or people with slower internet connections will begin to be cut out of the network, unable to download blocks fast enough.

So then the question becomes, would people still be willing to dump more capital into bitcoin once tx fees become 10 dollars? what about 100 dollars? it seems bitcoin would loose a great deal of its utility at that point. Doesnt this create something of a soft cap somewhere around 10,000 dollars.

i know this math is pretty rough but you can substitute your own numbers, the specific numbers arnt that important its the basic idea of the mechanisms at work here that matter.

what im saying is that we will never see a 100,000 dollar bitcoin unless someone can figure out how to address this issue, and i just dont see how they can.

Yup! Anything is only worth what people will pay for it

It's worth what someone will pay for it.

That can be any amount.

If it is capped at $2000, what would you say if I offered you $5000 for a bitcoin? If you said yes and we did a transaction, then how much was that bitcoin worth?

lol just check the source code for '$2000' you'll find it there

That doesn't make anysense whatsoever. The deflationary nature of BTC and the inflationary nature of USD means that it's only a matter of time before BTC goes past $2000 (sure that time may be tens or hundreds of years but you get what I mean)

+1, where did you get that from?