There is something fishy in this correction..

sorrysteve1

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on November 28, 2018, 12:01:02 AM

Yes you are. But how much Bitcoins do the plebs hold? Yes, not enough to crash the price in a market as liquid and high-volume as Bitcoin.

Plus who said the whale-cumulators only "sit pretty" and wait for their investments to grow? They manipulate the market because they want to get more of the plebs' money. It is a fun game for people like them.

For distinction: I believe that large players were responsible for the fall from 20k down to current price (perhaps a little higher actually). I do not believe that they would be responsible for any further fall given that 3k is already a good buying point for them and they also understand how pushing the market below long term price supports is going to make recovery much harder. The smaller guys (largely speaking) are a lot more clueless, they'll have bought at 20k and will now be selling at the current price, given how delicate the market is currently, if a lot of them finally decide to sell then that could push the price further down.

Wind_FURY

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Yes you are. But how much Bitcoins do the plebs hold? Yes, not enough to crash the price in a market as liquid and high-volume as Bitcoin.

Plus who said the whale-cumulators only "sit pretty" and wait for their investments to grow? They manipulate the market because they want to get more of the plebs' money. It is a fun game for people like them.

sorrysteve1

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on November 27, 2018, 03:47:33 AM

Quote from: gentlemand on November 26, 2018, 03:56:57 PM

Quote from: sorrysteve1 on November 26, 2018, 02:35:22 PM

I guess one thing that I neglected to consider. The common person on the street who's mate invested $500 at $20k isn't likely to invest for fear of getting burned themselves but institutions who are far more clued up and understand the cyclical nature of markets are far more likely to sniff a bargain at $3k. I would think that the amount invested by those institutions will outweigh that of the public. It will probably be the institutions who take us through the slow grind back to an ATH and then the public who push us to new heights before the next market crash years from now.

Sounds about right to me. The proper finance professionals look years into the future for their payoff. It's the twitchy kiddies who throw in the towel instantly and at great cost to themselves. It's been the same story since the concept of wealth existed and it's never, ever going to change.

The plebs, or the "twitchy kiddies" as you call them, are the cause of the rally and to blame for the crash? I believe there is more to it than that. The whale-cumulators have been around longer in Bitcoin than they want us to believe.

They're far more inclined to give in to panic, be it buying or selling. If the institutions have been around for longer than they want us to believe than there investments are still sitting very pretty, even at the current bitcoin price. There's no reason for them to panic and crash the market further. They'll have been the one's selling near the top at 20k and will be the ones picking up more coins soon.

fulmucos

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Quote from: allohm on November 25, 2018, 04:27:41 AM

I would like your opinions on two thoughts:
1. I have seen many many BTC corrections throughout the past years. But what has particularly struck me in this one is the absence of any buybacks or even temporary relief rallies, no matter the time frame. It is a bit strange to me and makes me think whether this time it is different. TA is not very much respected (well it was never too much respected to begin with with BTC) but especially after breaking the 6Ks there is hardly any buing reaction, like a patient that is already clinically dead but still supported from machines..

2. Who is selling? It is hard to believe that all this is panic selling from "noobs". Some dumps are way too orchestrated and timely. When did all this selling power build up? The only normal explanation i could find is basically an assumption: whether bad legal or tax news lie ahead so "big boys" are cashing out. And i do not even mention some of the other alts that look like they will give the ultimate fight for their very existence.

My conclusion is that it looks like a shakeup, a clearing phase. Just like the burst of .com, which enabled the rebirth of some champions. I hope BTC will be there in the next phase as well and not be replaced by some government backed BTC-clones.

if i put all these together, this correction "smells" differently. i am not sure btc will rebound any time soon (and i mean in 2019-2020). And not by any considerable amount.

You are totally right. Comparing with all others corrections/crashes, this looks totally different. Almost no bounces, keep dropping with flat corrections, technical levels not respected at all.

I have no idea what's causing this (might be linked to the emergence of margin trade?) but I am curious to see how it will end...

Alubert

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Quote from: Wilhelm on November 25, 2018, 07:51:19 AM

If you look at the last pump, we all knew that the 10k to 20k move was too much and it would end. Everybody wanting in to Bitcoin is a bad sign.

Now we see the other side, pushing down lower and lower even though we know it is below it's value.
This panic downtrend will get countered soon. We are close to the bottom. Below $3k would only be temporary.
People leaving Bitcoin is a good sign!!

Anyway it's been quite a while but I bought some BTC

Holding out for <$1k is ludicrous but between $4k and $3k is good value for money....

Buy when there is blood in the streets even if it's yours!!!!!

I agree. Calvin Ayre declared the hash war in Bitcoin Cash has ended. So the price of the coins will rise again.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: gentlemand on November 26, 2018, 03:56:57 PM

Quote from: sorrysteve1 on November 26, 2018, 02:35:22 PM

I guess one thing that I neglected to consider. The common person on the street who's mate invested $500 at $20k isn't likely to invest for fear of getting burned themselves but institutions who are far more clued up and understand the cyclical nature of markets are far more likely to sniff a bargain at $3k. I would think that the amount invested by those institutions will outweigh that of the public. It will probably be the institutions who take us through the slow grind back to an ATH and then the public who push us to new heights before the next market crash years from now.

Sounds about right to me. The proper finance professionals look years into the future for their payoff. It's the twitchy kiddies who throw in the towel instantly and at great cost to themselves. It's been the same story since the concept of wealth existed and it's never, ever going to change.

The plebs, or the "twitchy kiddies" as you call them, are the cause of the rally and to blame for the crash? I believe there is more to it than that. The whale-cumulators have been around longer in Bitcoin than they want us to believe.

gentlemand

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Quote from: sorrysteve1 on November 26, 2018, 02:35:22 PM

I guess one thing that I neglected to consider. The common person on the street who's mate invested $500 at $20k isn't likely to invest for fear of getting burned themselves but institutions who are far more clued up and understand the cyclical nature of markets are far more likely to sniff a bargain at $3k. I would think that the amount invested by those institutions will outweigh that of the public. It will probably be the institutions who take us through the slow grind back to an ATH and then the public who push us to new heights before the next market crash years from now.

Sounds about right to me. The proper finance professionals look years into the future for their payoff. It's the twitchy kiddies who throw in the towel instantly and at great cost to themselves. It's been the same story since the concept of wealth existed and it's never, ever going to change.

sorrysteve1

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Quote from: gentlemand on November 25, 2018, 01:38:05 PM

Quote from: sorrysteve1 on November 25, 2018, 11:22:44 AM

, I think the big difference to other crashes in the past is that this time it is very much in the public spotlight so it's going to take much more to come back from this.

Could go either way. Either the increased attention means it stays down for longer, or less time. We're about to find out. I can well believe an awful lot of people forgot about BTC completely after 2013. That certainly won't be the case this time around.

Never underestimate how rapidly things can turn if people sniff dollars. Memories suddenly become conveniently short.

I guess one thing that I neglected to consider. The common person on the street who's mate invested $500 at $20k isn't likely to invest for fear of getting burned themselves but institutions who are far more clued up and understand the cyclical nature of markets are far more likely to sniff a bargain at $3k. I would think that the amount invested by those institutions will outweigh that of the public. It will probably be the institutions who take us through the slow grind back to an ATH and then the public who push us to new heights before the next market crash years from now.

Supercrypt

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This one is a bit different compared to others you have seen. The reason for this is that after a whole year of stagnant and bear markets the volume has dropped significantly and that caused the market to be more volatile since any money coming in right now would have a huge impact on the price.

When the volume of bitcoin was at around 11 billion or even higher the price didn't moved that much that quickly even with 500 million dollars type of buys because there was enough volume to cover and re balance those prices.

Moreover right now, we have seen 2 billion dollars in volume which would mean the price would be changing a lot more fiercely with a 500 million change. The second reason is there was no bad news or no market changes or anything regular that dropped the price, it was some couple whales selling all their bitcoins to fight each other which caused this drop and made it unlike any other bear run out there.

tanvir232

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True, it was fishy. It was fishy because of the whales who like to manipulate the market and still that's what going on. People who bought at the peak hour, I mean at January, are the one who is "panic selling". Those dumb will never learn how to trade. They only buy when seeing the price is going up and sell instantly if there is a big drop.

Vit83

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Another strange thing I see is falling trading volumes - after falling volume just disappears. Same thing with alts some of them have millions capitalization but no trading volume.

pooya87

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you can not call it "fishy" and also "correction". they can't be correct together. it is either a correction which is logical. or is fishy and is a dump aka manipulation.

1. i believe it is be cause lack of confidence in this drop. majority of traders see this as a manipulation dump not a real drop and correction so they are staying away because they want to protect themselves. as manipulations go, they are unpredictable and nobody likes losing money to whales that are swinging the price.

2. i don't believe this drop had anything more than 10% panic sell (compared to any other similar drops which is mostly panic sells). mainly because all the weak hands have been flushed out of the market in the course of 10 months prior to this drop and the rest who remained aren't known for their panicky decisions.

Quote from: allohm on November 25, 2018, 04:27:41 AM

i am not sure btc will rebound any time soon (and i mean in 2019-2020). amount.

it won't but only because it takes a long time to recover from such a big manipulation drop.

talks_cheep

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Cryptocurrency market the most manipulated market in the history of mankind. Bar none. Also, be aware of the coming January blood bath; we are going down to $1500. On the other hand, Feb'19 will mark the start of a long recovery, so there's that. I'm just looking forward to the 2020 Half'ing event.

bintangkejoraku

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I agree with what you say, BTC will not recover in the near future. maybe it will take 2-3 years, or even longer. oh this is so boring Cry

Quidat

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This market seems too familiar to me might as well familiar to the other who's already here. We are in an extreme downtrend just like before and if I can compare it to last year it is almost the same but the difference is that it all took on December. And for those who are afraid of missing out chose to sell more than holding it you guys suck.

exstasie

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Surprise, surprise. Most bitcoiners around here think the price crashing must be "artificial" and "manipulated." Cheesy

In what ways would an organic crash look different?

Quote from: Jet Cash on November 25, 2018, 06:22:41 AM

Hasn't Bitcoin dropped by 90% or so in the past just before a major bull run. The fundamentals still look good to me though. The movement does look a bit fishy, it seems to be coming down in steps, and that makes it look as if it is orchestrated.

That's what downtrends usually look like: market selloffs with sideways "bear flags" and "bear pennants" riddled throughout.

fabiorem

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I feel the same, OP.

This "correction" was very artificial.

gentlemand

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Quote from: sorrysteve1 on November 25, 2018, 11:22:44 AM

, I think the big difference to other crashes in the past is that this time it is very much in the public spotlight so it's going to take much more to come back from this.

Could go either way. Either the increased attention means it stays down for longer, or less time. We're about to find out. I can well believe an awful lot of people forgot about BTC completely after 2013. That certainly won't be the case this time around.

Never underestimate how rapidly things can turn if people sniff dollars. Memories suddenly become conveniently short.

sorrysteve1

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Quote from: allohm on November 25, 2018, 04:27:41 AM

I would like your opinions on two thoughts:
1. I have seen many many BTC corrections throughout the past years. But what has particularly struck me in this one is the absence of any buybacks or even temporary relief rallies, no matter the time frame. It is a bit strange to me and makes me think whether this time it is different. TA is not very much respected (well it was never too much respected to begin with with BTC) but especially after breaking the 6Ks there is hardly any buing reaction, like a patient that is already clinically dead but still supported from machines..

2. Who is selling? It is hard to believe that all this is panic selling from "noobs". Some dumps are way too orchestrated and timely. When did all this selling power build up? The only normal explanation i could find is basically an assumption: whether bad legal or tax news lie ahead so "big boys" are cashing out. And i do not even mention some of the other alts that look like they will give the ultimate fight for their very existence.

My conclusion is that it looks like a shakeup, a clearing phase. Just like the burst of .com, which enabled the rebirth of some champions. I hope BTC will be there in the next phase as well and not be replaced by some government backed BTC-clones.

if i put all these together, this correction "smells" differently. i am not sure btc will rebound any time soon (and i mean in 2019-2020). And not by any considerable amount.

I agree with most of this. It does seem very similar to the dotcom bubble, I think the big difference to other crashes in the past is that this time it is very much in the public spotlight so it's going to take much more to come back from this. The market needed to rid itself of the hundreds of shit coins. Only then do I think it can become a lot more respected and reach its full potential.

The Sceptical Chymist

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Quote from: allohm on November 25, 2018, 04:27:41 AM

It is a bit strange to me and makes me think whether this time it is different. TA is not very much respected (well it was never too much respected to begin with with BTC) but especially after breaking the 6Ks there is hardly any buing reaction, like a patient that is already clinically dead but still supported from machines..

First of all, I cringe whenever I hear "this time it's different" when someone says that about financial markets--any of them. As I write this, preev has bitcoin at $3759, which is a damn good drop from where it was, but if there was no "support" or people buying at all, bitcoin would be headed toward zero--and it's not.

I don't believe in TA. I think it's a bunch of voodoo unscientific approaches to predicting prices based on past price behavior. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't, but it's a bunch of randomness IMO, just like the market is.

The fact is that none of us know what's causing this bitcoin battering, i.e., who's selling. But Jesus, just be patient and things will probably get better. Assuming you bought bitcoin above $3700, what are you options right now? Sell at a loss? That's a sucker move. Let the weak hands in the market do that and pick up the scraps--because those scraps are going to be worth quite a bit more in the coming months (and this is just my opinion). I don't claim to know what any recovery is going to look like. Hell, we could drop lower too. It's anyone's guess.

Topic: There is something fishy in this correction.. (Read 536 times)