There's no way this is a "V-shaped" recovery... right?

Barnabe

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Quote from: lumeire on June 07, 2020, 10:22:19 AM

Quote from: mtwelve on May 21, 2020, 12:13:08 AM

Perhaps a little off topic as not directly crypto but think it's important anyways to discuss the overall economy and how it may affect crypto.

So as those in tune with the stock market know, essentially we saw a high of 3340~ (SP500), a low of 2170~ (March 17th I believe) and then currently we are flirting with the 3000 barriers today (looks like either this week or next week it might break it).

The economist in me is screaming unprecedented debt, balance sheets, potential negative interest rates, unemployment claims, etc.

But unlimited QE, buying of junk bonds and equity, seems to have created this huge divergence between the usually rational market and it's underlying economy.

I'm young so this is my first real depression/recession I've experienced and really understood what's going on but those that were around for the 2008 GFC or Dec 2018 V shape recovery - does this feel different? What are your thoughts?

How has your asset allocation of stock,bonds, PMs, crypto changed? Are you more cash heavy right now? When do you think we'll the next leg down?

The stock market is recovering the losses but the economy isn't recovering yet. I guess this is because of the stimulus provided by the government, people are investing with that money and as they are spending the money so somewhat economy is getting back on track due to which The stock market is rising, and most probably people are also investing leftover money into stocks as well.

In my opinion, the people do not have much influence on the markets. I think whatever money they have will be used for consumer goods and first necessity items. The increase of stock and financial assets could be simply due to the massive amount of money the Federal Reserve has put into the market (as Quantitative Easing). Anyway, I do not believe the high prices we see today are sustainable...

mtwelve

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Quote from: figmentofmyass on June 06, 2020, 06:08:24 PM

Quote from: mtwelve on June 05, 2020, 11:11:00 PM

Quote from: figmentofmyass on June 05, 2020, 05:48:35 PM

i dunno what to make of it. it feels super irrational. even if the jobs numbers improved last month, we're still at high double digit unemployment with stimulus measures expiring soon. i don't see the market pricing in the future drops in earnings. when will they?

the coronavirus has been overshadowed in the news cycle by the george floyd protests, but cases are back on the rise in both the USA and worldwide. the protests could speed things up in that department too. the threat of a second wave still looms heavy and the market hasn't priced it in IMO.

EXACTYL! The headlines today were "DOW up 800 points because of better than expect unemployment numbers" Economists were expecting 19% and only got 13%? In what world is THAT GOOD?

How is everything this world/USA going through (pandemic, world of economic pain, rioting) justify ONLY a 10% discount from the ATH? There's literally no signs of stopping.

THis rally is incredible. I want to get in but IDK if I'm too late. I 've been telling myself this for weeks I should go for it...

Really kicking myself when $300 Calls for June 17 were only $80 a contract.... I would've made SO much money by now.

oh well, just be glad you weren't shorting or buying puts in april like people i know. Tongue

re "too late".....a couple strong growth stocks that are late to the party but also made huge breakouts this past thursday/friday are PLUG and AMAT. there are no guarantees on this roller coaster but i think they might pull an AMZN and make a new ATH before reality sets in re the true state of the economy.

interesting reading: https://www.barrons.com/articles/11-growth-stocks-that-arent-too-late-to-buy-yet-51591373760

I'll definitely take a look at this - or just call it a day and do some $338 spy calls for JUne 30.

lumeire

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Quote from: mtwelve on May 21, 2020, 12:13:08 AM

Perhaps a little off topic as not directly crypto but think it's important anyways to discuss the overall economy and how it may affect crypto.

So as those in tune with the stock market know, essentially we saw a high of 3340~ (SP500), a low of 2170~ (March 17th I believe) and then currently we are flirting with the 3000 barriers today (looks like either this week or next week it might break it).

The economist in me is screaming unprecedented debt, balance sheets, potential negative interest rates, unemployment claims, etc.

But unlimited QE, buying of junk bonds and equity, seems to have created this huge divergence between the usually rational market and it's underlying economy.

I'm young so this is my first real depression/recession I've experienced and really understood what's going on but those that were around for the 2008 GFC or Dec 2018 V shape recovery - does this feel different? What are your thoughts?

How has your asset allocation of stock,bonds, PMs, crypto changed? Are you more cash heavy right now? When do you think we'll the next leg down?

The stock market is recovering the losses but the economy isn't recovering yet. I guess this is because of the stimulus provided by the government, people are investing with that money and as they are spending the money so somewhat economy is getting back on track due to which The stock market is rising, and most probably people are also investing leftover money into stocks as well.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: mtwelve on June 05, 2020, 11:11:00 PM

Quote from: figmentofmyass on June 05, 2020, 05:48:35 PM

i dunno what to make of it. it feels super irrational. even if the jobs numbers improved last month, we're still at high double digit unemployment with stimulus measures expiring soon. i don't see the market pricing in the future drops in earnings. when will they?

the coronavirus has been overshadowed in the news cycle by the george floyd protests, but cases are back on the rise in both the USA and worldwide. the protests could speed things up in that department too. the threat of a second wave still looms heavy and the market hasn't priced it in IMO.

EXACTYL! The headlines today were "DOW up 800 points because of better than expect unemployment numbers" Economists were expecting 19% and only got 13%? In what world is THAT GOOD?

How is everything this world/USA going through (pandemic, world of economic pain, rioting) justify ONLY a 10% discount from the ATH? There's literally no signs of stopping.

THis rally is incredible. I want to get in but IDK if I'm too late. I 've been telling myself this for weeks I should go for it...

Really kicking myself when $300 Calls for June 17 were only $80 a contract.... I would've made SO much money by now.

oh well, just be glad you weren't shorting or buying puts in april like people i know. Tongue

re "too late".....a couple strong growth stocks that are late to the party but also made huge breakouts this past thursday/friday are PLUG and AMAT. there are no guarantees on this roller coaster but i think they might pull an AMZN and make a new ATH before reality sets in re the true state of the economy.

interesting reading: https://www.barrons.com/articles/11-growth-stocks-that-arent-too-late-to-buy-yet-51591373760

mtwelve

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Quote from: figmentofmyass on June 05, 2020, 05:48:35 PM

Quote from: mtwelve on June 05, 2020, 03:03:58 PM

Quote from: bitgolden on June 05, 2020, 02:56:26 PM

Instead of a V shaped recover, it is going to be more like W shaped recovery. And now really even a W shape more like WWWWWWW shape because we are going to feel the hurt of all this pandemic over and over again, there will be results and consequences of it for a long time.

This is what I was really thinking... but this way past the 68% fib retracement level - we hit that around 280 if I'm not incorrect... this is literally just hysteria...

i can't believe the s&p500 is back in the 3100s. less than 10% from the ATH now, insanity! Shocked

bears are getting destroyed. RIP shorters.

Quote from: mtwelve on June 05, 2020, 02:21:12 PM

Have you seen the moves being made lately? AAL up 60%, airliners just SOARING - it's a weird world when Buffet sold the bottom.

i dunno what to make of it. it feels super irrational. even if the jobs numbers improved last month, we're still at high double digit unemployment with stimulus measures expiring soon. i don't see the market pricing in the future drops in earnings. when will they?

the coronavirus has been overshadowed in the news cycle by the george floyd protests, but cases are back on the rise in both the USA and worldwide. the protests could speed things up in that department too. the threat of a second wave still looms heavy and the market hasn't priced it in IMO.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/04/coronavirus-cdc-is-worried-americans-arent-following-its-advice-as-us-cases-continue-to-rise.html
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/06/05/world/coronavirus-cases-rising-faster-intl/index.html

EXACTYL! The headlines today were "DOW up 800 points because of better than expect unemployment numbers" Economists were expecting 19% and only got 13%? In what world is THAT GOOD?

How is everything this world/USA going through (pandemic, world of economic pain, rioting) justify ONLY a 10% discount from the ATH? There's literally no signs of stopping.

THis rally is incredible. I want to get in but IDK if I'm too late. I 've been telling myself this for weeks I should go for it...

Really kicking myself when $300 Calls for June 17 were only $80 a contract.... I would've made SO much money by now.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: mtwelve on June 05, 2020, 03:03:58 PM

Quote from: bitgolden on June 05, 2020, 02:56:26 PM

Instead of a V shaped recover, it is going to be more like W shaped recovery. And now really even a W shape more like WWWWWWW shape because we are going to feel the hurt of all this pandemic over and over again, there will be results and consequences of it for a long time.

This is what I was really thinking... but this way past the 68% fib retracement level - we hit that around 280 if I'm not incorrect... this is literally just hysteria...

i can't believe the s&p500 is back in the 3100s. less than 10% from the ATH now, insanity! Shocked

bears are getting destroyed. RIP shorters.

Quote from: mtwelve on June 05, 2020, 02:21:12 PM

Have you seen the moves being made lately? AAL up 60%, airliners just SOARING - it's a weird world when Buffet sold the bottom.

i dunno what to make of it. it feels super irrational. even if the jobs numbers improved last month, we're still at high double digit unemployment with stimulus measures expiring soon. i don't see the market pricing in the future drops in earnings. when will they?

the coronavirus has been overshadowed in the news cycle by the george floyd protests, but cases are back on the rise in both the USA and worldwide. the protests could speed things up in that department too. the threat of a second wave still looms heavy and the market hasn't priced it in IMO.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/04/coronavirus-cdc-is-worried-americans-arent-following-its-advice-as-us-cases-continue-to-rise.html
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/06/05/world/coronavirus-cases-rising-faster-intl/index.html

mtwelve

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Quote from: bitgolden on June 05, 2020, 02:56:26 PM

Instead of a V shaped recover, it is going to be more like W shaped recovery. And now really even a W shape more like WWWWWWW shape because we are going to feel the hurt of all this pandemic over and over again, there will be results and consequences of it for a long time.

Just as we feel a bit better there will be some more companies bankrupting because they couldn't handle all the debt and the recovery wasn't fast enough for them so we will all suck for a while in economy, after that we will start to recover again and there will some more companies that goes down because they handled the first going down but the second one killed them, so we will start to recover after t... well it will continue like this for a loong time, I say at least 2 years, we will only recover after a long period of nothingness.

This is what I was really thinking... but this way past the 68% fib retracement level - we hit that around 280 if I'm not incorrect... this is literally just hysteria...

bitgolden

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Instead of a V shaped recover, it is going to be more like W shaped recovery. And now really even a W shape more like WWWWWWW shape because we are going to feel the hurt of all this pandemic over and over again, there will be results and consequences of it for a long time.

Just as we feel a bit better there will be some more companies bankrupting because they couldn't handle all the debt and the recovery wasn't fast enough for them so we will all suck for a while in economy, after that we will start to recover again and there will some more companies that goes down because they handled the first going down but the second one killed them, so we will start to recover after t... well it will continue like this for a loong time, I say at least 2 years, we will only recover after a long period of nothingness.

conhela

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Quote from: Upgrade00 on May 21, 2020, 02:59:23 AM

I expect we'll be having up and down movements over the next weeks, while remaining in the downrange. The general sentiments are gloomy, the effect of the lockdown visible in many economies and with an end to the pandemic not yet in sight, so I won't be expecting a quick recovery.

Quote from: mtwelve on May 21, 2020, 12:13:08 AM

How has your asset allocation of stock,bonds, PMs, crypto changed? Are you more cash heavy right now?

I expect a heavy push of cash into the markets to encourage spending and revive economies, possibly leading to a inflation, this would likely lessen the weight of fiat.

But wouldn't, then, this mean that bitcoin's price in said FIATs will increase in comparison, the purchasing power might stay the same but it would go up because bitcoin is not dependent on a single FIAT currency, am I reading that right?

mtwelve

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Are we near the top..? Considering I myself now am FOMOin'g and want to get into some calls just to make some money.

Have you seen the moves being made lately? AAL up 60%, airliners just SOARING - it's a weird world when Buffet sold the bottom.

leeboy

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It could be a real v sheped recovery. Gov is spending a lot of money for recovery, printing a lot of money. All of this keep wall street from falling. They are trading not a real economy situation. They are trading recovery already

MCobian

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I feel this CONVID19 pandemic cannot be resolved in the near future, therefore I do not believe in "V-shaped" recovery. We do not wait
until the crisis is over for investment, do it quickly if you still have cold money for investment. Because a little late we will lose the moment
to be able to get cheap prices for both stock and crypto investments. Based on my analysis many people will soon adapt to coexist with
CONVID19, if that has happened then the economy will rise soon.

exstasie

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Quote from: btc_love on June 02, 2020, 08:20:12 AM

If there is a crisis or any incident that no one could have predicted, and the governments of all countries decide to use cryptocurrency, then incredible changes will occur in everything, including the price of cryptocurrencies.

Consider what it would take for governments to uniformly start using cryptocurrency. Probably a total collapse of fiat currencies, which would not be orderly. If that happens, there will turbulent circumstances for quite some time, years or even decades. Even if value eventually pours into cryptocurrencies, prices could be crushed in shorter term liquidity crises, just like they were this past March.

Robust Crypto

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Quote from: mtwelve on May 21, 2020, 12:13:08 AM

Perhaps a little off topic as not directly crypto but think it's important anyways to discuss the overall economy and how it may affect crypto.

So as those in tune with the stock market know, essentially we saw a high of 3340~ (SP500), a low of 2170~ (March 17th I believe) and then currently we are flirting with the 3000 barriers today (looks like either this week or next week it might break it).

The economist in me is screaming unprecedented debt, balance sheets, potential negative interest rates, unemployment claims, etc.

But unlimited QE, buying of junk bonds and equity, seems to have created this huge divergence between the usually rational market and it's underlying economy.

I'm young so this is my first real depression/recession I've experienced and really understood what's going on but those that were around for the 2008 GFC or Dec 2018 V shape recovery - does this feel different? What are your thoughts?

How has your asset allocation of stock,bonds, PMs, crypto changed? Are you more cash heavy right now? When do you think we'll the next leg down?

I'm more in Crypto

Febo

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I dont understand that people that know that pandemic will last for a year preach about V shape recovery. They are lying directly to camera. Today politicians can simply say whatever they want. No one call them on their wrong predictions anymore.

mindrust

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Quote from: bits4books on May 31, 2020, 08:16:56 AM

Quite funny by the way the situation turned out. All this time, crypto-anarchists and other adherents of decentralization shouted that cryptocurrencies will never depend on the "fiat" market and that we are on our own - but now we see that this is fundamentally not the case. It would be interesting to hear what these adepts have to say now.

Crypto is just another form of stock.

It doesn't mean it has zero usecases.

I like the idea of the permissionless network. You know no matter what happens your money will go through.

It is a great tool if you do freelancer work and collect your money when banks&paypal isn't available to you or simply don't want to use them.

Keeping too much value in it is very tiring on the other hand. Not everybody can carry a burden like that.

btc_love

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If there is a crisis or any incident that no one could have predicted, and the governments of all countries decide to use cryptocurrency, then incredible changes will occur in everything, including the price of cryptocurrencies.

I mean that we cannot know for sure. Tomorrow everything can change.

abhiseshakana

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Quote from: bits4books on May 31, 2020, 08:16:56 AM

Quite funny by the way the situation turned out. All this time, crypto-anarchists and other adherents of decentralization shouted that cryptocurrencies will never depend on the "fiat" market and that we are on our own - but now we see that this is fundamentally not the case. It would be interesting to hear what these adepts have to say now.

Corona pandemic is indeed the first test for bitcoin but until now bitcoin is still an attractive choice. Because pandemics attack economic subjects so bitcoin is associated with fiat fall, like a machine that needs an operator to run, but the operator is absent so the machine is silent. But the moment of falling prices of bitcoin three months ago was used by many people to buy bitcoin.

When the beginning of the pandemic spread, corona also caused panic in crypto assets. And indeed there are many selling actions carried out by a group of people who need cash to shop and save their businesses, the impact of the global economy continues to worsen. The condition of the pandemic that never ended made the various investment sectors fluctuate and completely uncertain.

But compared to shares the price movement of bitcoin in the middle of a pandemic is still interesting. Although from February 15 to March 14, the price of bitcoin dropped dramatically, but after that, the price tends to rise. Market confidence in bitcoin investment is the sentiment that drives the rise in bitcoin prices besides the halving moment will increase bitcoin prices in the long run and gradually.

Barnabe

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Quote from: exstasie on June 02, 2020, 12:12:38 AM

Quote from: bits4books on May 31, 2020, 08:16:56 AM

Quite funny by the way the situation turned out. All this time, crypto-anarchists and other adherents of decentralization shouted that cryptocurrencies will never depend on the "fiat" market and that we are on our own - but now we see that this is fundamentally not the case. It would be interesting to hear what these adepts have to say now.

BTC did crash with equities and most other assets in March, that's true.

On the other hand, BTC also recovered 100% of those losses. Gold as well. But real estate funds, stocks? Not even close. Maybe this is a divergence worth paying attention to.

Cryptos are also a very "early investor" type of asset while the stocks and real estate are very mature... BTC recovered its loses, but it also is a big rollercoaster, not sure if this comparison is fair...

exstasie

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Quote from: bits4books on May 31, 2020, 08:16:56 AM

Quite funny by the way the situation turned out. All this time, crypto-anarchists and other adherents of decentralization shouted that cryptocurrencies will never depend on the "fiat" market and that we are on our own - but now we see that this is fundamentally not the case. It would be interesting to hear what these adepts have to say now.

BTC did crash with equities and most other assets in March, that's true.

On the other hand, BTC also recovered 100% of those losses. Gold as well. But real estate funds, stocks? Not even close. Maybe this is a divergence worth paying attention to.

Topic: There's no way this is a "V-shaped" recovery... right? (Read 1025 times)